BenAdar

nearly 2 months later: we had a double bottom give or take a few 1000s, we'll love time capitulation. Prime time for accumulation in q2q3 same as 2022. Waiting on the sidelines for ~50k. Had a nice 5x last bull market but was shooting for 10x.. aim for 3-4x next bull #4yearcycle

This memechart vs the $GLD chart above vs every single BTC Bear market 2014-2018-2022-2026 That’s right they’re all the same Gonna enjoy accumulating in the 50-55k range this q2-q4

I remember thinking back in 2023/24 (1st pic) that we shall redo the $GLD fractal. 80x factor predicted 144k as a multi top for 2025. OFC I got caught in the heat of the moonboys...... Turns out 70x was spot on, so this is what we may be looking at for the next decade. GL all

@DorkChicken your curve isn't quite accurate needs to be steeper earlier on and then flattened a bit, something like 50k is highly likely

For everyone waiting on $30K BTC in October 2026, I’d say the odds aren’t great.

@imperial_btc 164k in 2029 sounds good. 169,420 even

#Bitcoin sentiment

@imperial_btc @blackwidowbtc Love a solid one time black swan to justify a bias in the face of all other patterns

@blackwidowbtc I really don't agree with calling this a bear market. Capitulations happen all the time, especially in a volatile market like crypto. In 2020, with the Covid crash, did we also go into a bear market? No, it was a sell-off, just one of many. x.com/imperial_btc/s…

We are in a bear market. But guess what? That's bullish! Bear markets end and they lead to a BULL MARKET in the future 🐂 The most bullish scenario is letting price finish it's bear trend and then starting a whole new bull cycle after 2026 This year may be the last year we get to accumulate around the 50K marker before we leave it forever 🤑 #Bitcoin

@scott32061303 @blackwidowbtc First corrective wave 126k>80k -36.5% *complacency* 2nd corrective wave 98k>60k -38.8% *denial* (we are here) Last corrective wave may well spike under 50k but I won’t be too greedy

@blackwidowbtc Not sure why nobody is posting this inverted C&H. The 1.618 was the recent backstop but it can definitely go to the 2 fib.

@baseload21 Ahh yes because drawing lines on a log chart works so well. Accumulation will be lower

Manage your expectations. It will probably take more time than people think to rebuild price structure. 60-70k is for heavy accumulation, but patience.

@TheConnectoor Then get rekt with your dumb data

@Ben__Adar Nope

a big weekly hammer after a lower high after a weird late cycle run, never seen before eh

@CryptoCowboy101 @PeterSchiff lol lol ok lmao lol.

@Ben__Adar @PeterSchiff No definitely not lol

Despite unprecedented support from the media, Wall Street, and government, Bitcoin is trading below the $69K ATH it first hit in Nov. 2021. At no point in its 16-year history did Bitcoin ever trade below a prior ATH four years later. The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH.

@TXWestCapital we havent completed 5 waves at all, it's the exact same drop. This is wave 4 "denial"

One of the differences between the current drop off the ATH and the 2022 drop of ATH is that we just appear to have completed 5 waves down v back then the same area everyone is referencing had already completed five down, the three wave correction, and then broken down further. #Bitcoin $BTC

@CryptoCowboy101 @PeterSchiff 50k this year then 2028 alt season. 4 year cycle, dont overthink it

@PeterSchiff 150k will be the last ATH in November, altseason Q4 2026 - Q1 2027

@macrojack21 @KenKen69698 @charliedavis So many industrials / companies / “professionals” did lmfaooo. They’re just as clueless but richer

@KenKen69698 @charliedavis who did that?

i feel guilty when bitcoin crashes i know plenty of friends and family who bought because of me are watching it drop nearly 50% and wondering what the hell happened it's not my responsibility - they're adults, they made their own decisions but i still feel it most don't reach out (probably don't want to bother me) but i know they're thinking: 'why is this down so much' it's a long term game. i know that. and i hope they know that. but when you've put in real money and don't fully understand it and watch it drop 50%, that's brutal anyone else carry this?

@macrojack21 “plenty of friends and family who bought because of me” we all know when those people ask you sell everything and you tell them to wait for the next 60% dump, why didn’t you do this?

@Doctor_Magic_ Retesting the 2021 highs is irrelevant Retesting the 6 month consolidation in 2024 is relevant, that means hitting 50k. We got nowhere near that we were 20% higher. Do you even know how to read the most basic data?

So let me get this straight BTC is retesting the 2021 highs and the 6 month consolidation in 2024 summer BTC.D is HTF bearish / ETH made a higher low And you think there is not a chance BTC will go one last time parabolic and be distributed in altcoins ?

@TheConnectoor You should really care about this

@Ben__Adar I dont care at all about a speculative cheat sheet, i care about google trends, sentiment data, app store rank, plus btc dominance level

@AxelAdlerJr I thought we had already entered capitulation phase but this is merely denial on the wall st Cheat sheet. Capitulation will be due soon

Bitcoin is now down -46% from the peak. This bear market has entered a deep phase. Price is testing the 1.25x Realized Price Band - the historical line between correction and capitulation. ☕️Adler AM #101 👇 axeladlerjr.com/drawdown-46-be…

@bariksis it's the same weekly candles we got in May 2022 before the last dump of the ABCDE. We just got C. Where I think we may differ is no-FTX q4 dump so bear lows could come in next month or q2. Still needs time capitulation tho = sideways for 6+ months before next bull market goes on.

Bears have two settings: 1) Hubris 2) Cope During the fall of Bitcoin from $85K to $60K they were fueled with hubris, because they were right (short term). However, what we’ve all been witnessing since the bounce into the $70K level is unadulterated COPE.

@mikemcglone11 10k LMFAO what the hell are you smoking

The Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin Includes a Bounce from $64,000 - Here's how/why (my own-it, or wear-it views): - $64k is a speedbump on the way back down, roughly the mode from 2024, the year that fueled the final silliness stage - Future generations will replace tulip mania with crypto frenzy as the primary analogy for markets that simply went up too much - A normal 20% bear-market bounce is $72k, from $64k - The first-born crypto has proven it's neither digital gold nor leveraged beta, it's a highly speculative #-on-the-screen tracking nothing with unlimited competition - The purge of $Billions of AUM in Millions of copycats is early days - Crypto-dollars (stable coins) are great for 'Peer-to-Peer Cash' (thank you Trump 2.0 for getting what 1.0, and Satoshi didn't) - Crypto's got Trumped, Stocks are Next remains my base case - Signs of wrong: BTC stays above $90k - Signs of right: S&P 500 180-day volatility at 11% reverts from an almost 8-year low - Matter of time, volatility always reverts toward its mean (10-yr about 18%) - Gold and silver pump-then-dumps this year are reminiscent of multi-year highs. Volatility to trickle up to stocks - Cheer-leader and chief, President Trump, will be a lame duck this time next year - Atlas's burden rests on US stocks at the most stretched vs. GDP in about a century - The next 10% drawdown in beta to show the greatest receding-tide effect in history - US T-bonds are the NBT (next big trade), May be a perfect trade: T-bonds going up mean lower inflation, a top election issue Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #bitcoin #stockmarket #gold #bonds #macroeconomic @markets

@trade_centurion @blackwidowbtc gotta be some kind of bastard price that satisfies nobody. Just like 125k was the perfect top no one liked, something like 50k should be the perfect shitty discount no one wants.

@blackwidowbtc At the same time, only a few are expecting upside. Everyone else has already planned their buys at $30K. Yeah… sure.

Interesting observation First ever bear market where legitimately everyone is excited to try and buy the bottom Hmm #Bitcoin

@mwrldn @TheRealPlanC 30-35k is the new 10-12k for the clueless bears. Ironically perfect 3x from 2022. So maybe we bottom out around 54k assuming there’s no FTX cataclysm to send us below 50k.

@TheRealPlanC This rhymes perfectly with Bitcoin's price development from 2022–2023 if we follow the 50 MA. I see more and more people here on X believing we are going to 30–35K. I have a hard time believing we will go that deep!

Bitcoin Quantile Model How stable is the 1st Quantile floor? I did a deep dive... INSANE RESULTS! 522 weekly fits over the last 10 years to see how much the slope changed. The answer is essentially zero change for 10 years. The same underlying mathematical pattern that defines the Bitcoin Quantile Model lower bounds has been completely stable since 2016.

@MelMattison1 You’re gonna make a lot of people lose a lot of money, but I guess it’s good people like you exist

Bitcoin will hit new ATHs this summer. This is a perfect setup. If you were buying at 98 thinking it a great entry point, but are not buying now at sub $70K, frankly, you're a poser and not a believer. I called bottoms wrong and it left a bad taste in my month, so I didn't jump on the bottom last week, but after studious review, I have begun adding again to long-term holds of actual coins. I'm a buyer here.