Benjamin

@kevinbonham @kevinbonham how about Vic (State) Resolve?😊

Current YouGov is second federal polls to have ON tied for the primary vote lead, after DemosAU last week

My last-election 2PP estimates for latest federal polls: Morgan 54.3 to ALP (+1.2) YouGov 52.7 (-1.7) Vs ON Morgan 55.5, YouGov 51.6. Morgan has a low ON vote for others so Labor tends to do well on this one with them.

@darkturkey27 @Commoncents21 Both in absolute terms and per capita, for both offences and incidents. You said they don't record crime per capita, they do. crimestatistics.vic.gov.au Muting now, have a good day.

@Ben_jamin1611 @Commoncents21 Tell me, how does Victoria count reported crime compared to the rest of the country?

The Premier is correct Mike. Victoria - 15,909 NSW - 15,887 Other states - much lower numbers. Source: Victoria Police Annual Report 2024/2025 NSW Police Annual Report 2024/2025

@darkturkey27 @Commoncents21 Violent crime per capita, Darwin. Melbourne is down toward the bottom, although it has risen. Per capita, Melbourne is #2 for car theft, #1 for aggravated burglary and #1 for repeat offenders.

@Ben_jamin1611 @Commoncents21 Tell me, per capita, which city in Australia it’s most likely for you to be the victim of a violent crime?

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 In any case, if you're going to demand someone compares apples with apples (after you compared conventional polling to an MRPs) then at least be consistent and not disingenuous or deliberately obtuse. Have a nice day.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 Ah, the good old ad hominem attack. When logic fails, make it personal. And I've never voted One Nation. Since DemosAU has been around they've had a very good track record. They've had one fail outside of the MoE, alongside all conventional pollsters.

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention 🟥 ALP: 26% (-3) 🟧 ONP: 26% (-2) 🟦 L/NP: 23% (+2) 🟩 GRN: 13% (+1) ⬛️ OTH: 12% (+2) DemosAU | 9-14 Apr | n=1439 | +/- 16-20 Feb

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 MRP isn't polling either, it's modelling, combining very large rolling polling samples with census data and other data points. It has a mixed record, but was good in the federal election, particularly YouGov's last MRP.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 Nice try. DemosAU does in fact have a very good track record, by calling every recent election to within MoE except in one case - the federal election - where all pollsters had a similar error.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 You claimed DemosAU doesn't have a great track record. The only example you can find was the federal election. But in that case there was widespread polling error of 2-3%. By that logic, all conventional polling has a poor track record.

@Ben_jamin1611 @AusPoll6 Because it was a Demos poll that was published. Do you know what we’ve been conversing about? You appear confused.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 Federally in 2025 sure, but no different to other convention pollsters. So why single out DemosAU when they were all out by a similar margin (including the same firms that conducted MRPs), and when in other examples available (ie state elections) they've been close to the mark?

@Ben_jamin1611 @AusPoll6 Yes. That’s what I’m saying. You agree with me. Demos methodology is not as robust. It’s why they don’t have a good track record. I don’t see the point of your reply when you agree with my position.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 If DemosAU had conducted an MRP then we could compare that with the final result, but they didn't. By comparing conventional polling with an MRP you're either being disingenuous or you don't know what an MRP is.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 Federally, all pollsters were within a 51-53 to ALP band. If that result shows that DemosAU is hopeless then so were all other pollsters. YouGov and RedBridge's own conventional tracking polling was well off the mark.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 So it's simply false to claim "Demos does not have a good track record." They've been within a percent or so for recent state elections. Federally all posters were out by 2-3%, and DemosAU was in the middle of the pack.

@Dcl0891 @AusPoll6 And SA 2026 Result: ALP 37.5 LIB 19 GRN 10.5 ONP 23 Final polls: Newspoll ALP 40 LIB 16 GRN 12 ONP 22 DemosAU ALP 37 LIB 17 GRN 11 ONP 23 YouGov ALP 38 LIB 19 GRN 12 ONP 22 Resolve ALP 32 LIB 18 GRN 10 ONP 28 F&H ALP 38 LIB 18 GRN 11 ONP 21 Roy Morgan ALP 35 LIB 18 GRN 11 ONP 28

@kevinbonham @kevinbonham what on earth is Spectre, other than the Bond villain?

My 2PP conversions (last-election) for today's batch of polls Spectre 50.8 to ALP (-4.1 but last poll was Nov) Resolve 54.5 (+1.2) Newspoll 54.7 (+0.9) Vs One Nation Spectre 51.1 to ALP Resolve 55.6 Newspoll 54.7

@darkturkey27 @Commoncents21 That’s hopelessly incorrect. Crime data in Victoria is recorded both in absolute terms and a rate per 100,000 - exactly the same as the Productivity Commission measuring operational officers per 100,000.

@Ben_jamin1611 @Commoncents21 Victoria doesn’t have record crime levels per capita.. Victoria, like the rest of the country, has had a spike..

@darkturkey27 @Commoncents21 No, no one has disputed the total employed staff figure, but it’s misleading because Vic has fewer operational sworn officers, plus a large number of vacancies. Part of the answer to getting record crime levels down is a greater police presence and more officers who can respond.

@Ben_jamin1611 @Commoncents21 So, you’re intentionally diverting from the OP.. Got it🙄

@darkturkey27 @Commoncents21 No, I said they have more on desk based work (ie non operational staff) as well as higher than average vacancies. Did you read the report?

@Ben_jamin1611 @Commoncents21 Do you need your be reminded of the original claim? Because your post here isn’t the same..