Benedikt Weingärtner

Sanctions against Russia are having far-reaching effects. According to assessments by the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Russia’s federal budget deficit has risen sharply. Moscow is trying to mask it with polished figures. Find out more (in German): t1p.de/mf80h

NEW: Ukraine is holding its own. Data from the battlefield show it’s Moscow that may be in trouble, write @TheStudyofWar's Kim Kagan and @criticalthreats' Frederick Kagan in a new op-ed for @washingtonpost. Key Takeaways + Link to Op-Ed⬇️🧵(1/3) 1/ Four years into fighting back an unprovoked full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s army is keeping Russian forces to marginal gains while at the same time extracting exorbitant costs in lives and treasure. The Kremlin’s claims that Russian forces are about to break through and overrun the fortified cities in Donetsk oblast — or any other region of Ukraine for that matter — are bluster. Currently, Russian forces occupy 19.4 percent of Ukrainian territory. They had taken about 7 percent of Ukraine during the first phase of the war in 2014, and came to occupy a total of 26.8 percent shortly after the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensives left the Russians holding only about 17.9 percent of Ukraine in November that year. Since then, Russia has seized only 1.5 percent more Ukrainian land while suffering over 1 million casualties in total. Let that sink in: Russia has needed three and a half years to seize 9,318 square kilometers, an area smaller than Lebanon or Los Angeles County. President Vladimir Putin’s supposedly inexorable march to victory has been proceeding, as others have noted, more slowly than at a snail’s pace.

🧵 Hier noch ein Thread mit Gedanken zum ARD-Exklusiv-Interview mit dem ukrainischen Präsidenten @ZelenskyyUa. 1/10

President @ZelenskyyUa: Ukrainians live under thousands of Russian strikes with various types of weapons. In the last week of winter alone, Russia used more than 1,720 attack drones, nearly 1,300 guided aerial bombs, and over 100 missiles of various types against Ukraine.   But despite everything, Ukrainians made it through this difficult winter, when Russia did not even try to seek justification for its bestial strikes on civilian critical infrastructure. Over the three months of winter, Russians launched more than 14,670 guided aerial bombs, 738 missiles, and nearly 19,000 attack drones – most of them Russian-Iranian “shaheds” – against our people. These are the same drones the Iranian regime is now launching against countries in the Middle East.   Evil must be confronted in every part of the world. When the United States and other partners show enough determination, even the bloodiest dictators ultimately pay for their crimes. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine defend itself and save lives.

OPINION: Putin's propaganda machine has been working overtime to spread the false narrative of a strong Russian economy. In reality, it’s at its weakest point since the Ukraine war began — and likely to get worse, write @RachelReevesMP and @ElisabethSvan. politico.eu/article/rachel…

Vladimir Putin still hopes that Ukraine will run out of men and materiel first. Our charts explain why he continues to misjudge his opponent economist.com/graphic-detail…

UKRAINE : 4 ans de résistance.

Der Ukraine in den vier Jahren seit dem russischen Überfall langsam, zögerlich, halbherzig und übervorsichtig zu helfen, war und ist menschlich, militärisch, wirtschaftlich und finanziell schlecht. Wer Frieden will, muss sich schnell und entschlossen durchsetzen wollen.

"A close look at Russia’s situation, both militarily and economically, paints a very different picture from the one Putin wants us to see." Read more in @TheStudyofWar Deputy Russia Team Lead Christina Harward's new op-ed in @nypost: nypost.com/2026/02/22/opi…

UKRAINE: Poutine impose un quatrième hiver de guerre en Ukraine. Transis de froid, les habitants sont régulièrement privés de chauffage et d’électricité. (Le Monde)

Over the past two days, I’ve shared two accounts of unspeakable violence against women: Iranians brutalized for demanding freedom, and Ukrainian women violated by Russian forces in a war of occupation. I write this not only as someone who works in national security, but as a mother of two daughters. I look at them and think about the kind of world they will inherit, and the kind of world we are willing to tolerate. That makes moral clarity feel less like an abstract principle and more like a responsibility. There are moments that require that clarity. Whatever your views on military action against Iran or the scope of our commitment to Ukraine, the condemnation of this barbarity should be loud, unified, and unmistakable across the free world. Some acts are so depraved that neutrality is itself a failure. There is no “both sides” when a regime rapes its own daughters to crush dissent, mutilates bodies to hide evidence, and executes its citizens by the thousands. There is no “both sides” when a war of choice leads to the kidnapping of children, the systematic sexual torture of women, and the deliberate targeting of civilians. When societies fracture and order collapses, women and girls are almost always the first to suffer. That is not incidental. It is a feature of tyranny and conquest. And as a mother, I cannot look at those realities and pretend they are distant or irrelevant. They are warnings. Ronald Reagan once warned that peace secured through surrender is no peace at all. Appeasement does not eliminate danger - it invites it. History teaches that the greater risk lies not in confronting evil, but in accommodating it until the final demand comes. For us in America, Iran and Ukraine may feel far away, but they are not on another planet. A nuclear-armed Iran governed by a regime that brutalizes its own people would make the world far more dangerous and unstable. A Russia rewarded for aggression would embolden other authoritarian powers and weaken the foundations of European security. But beyond strategy and geopolitics lies something even more enduring: who we choose to be. The way we respond to such cruelty will shape the moral inheritance we leave to the next generation. As a mother of daughters, I refuse to accept a world where this is normalized, excused, or met with silence.

Every day, Russian regions are increasing their signing bonuses for contract soldiers. St Petersburg just became the new leader, offering a regional payout of 4.1m rubles (total 4.5m). Rapidly increasing payouts mean that Russian recruitment is not going as planned right now.

Vladimir Putin fears peace in Ukraine. An end to the fighting could trigger a crisis in Russia—and even pose a threat to his power: econ.st/4r3RMGR

As the Iranian regime imposes a forced forgetting of the massacres in January, it has begun targeting not only wounded protesters but medical workers, who have borne witness to some of the worst atrocities. newyorkermag.visitlink.me/0EVmdk

Truly shocking data about Russian military failures in Ukraine in this excellent @CSIS report: csis.org/analysis/russi…

Für 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇳🇱🇸🇪🇬🇧 steht fest, dass Alexej Nawalny mit einem tödlichen Toxin vergiftet wurde. Zu diesem Schluss sind unsere Regierungen auf der Grundlage von Analysen von Proben Alexej Nawalnys gekommen. Das ganze Statement hier 👉 diplo.de/2756256

To those who argue Trump is doing more than Biden for Ukraine, this data suggest otherwise.

Exclusive: Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses than it was able to replace in January, according to assessments from Western officials. The development signals Ukraine’s new strategy of killing more Russian soldiers than the Kremlin can replenish via recruitment is having some success. Russian forces were unable to achieve any significant gains on the ground in January even as they took these very heavy losses, the officials said. About 35,000 Russians were KIA in December, roughly equal to Moscow’s monthly recruitment, Bloomberg previously reported. But in January Russian losses exceeded recruitment. While the situation is difficult for Ukraine, especially for civilians without heating, Russia is taking incredibly high losses for no reward. At the current rate it will still take Russia two years to fully take Donetsk Oblast, according to the assessments. It raises further questions for Putin’s ability to make a breakthrough on the ground, despite the Russian narrative - at times echoed by Trump - that its victory is inevitable. It suggests Ukraine still has leverage in negotiations. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Iranians rose for freedom, not for deals. After brutal repression & prisons filled w/ protesters, 🇪🇺 task is clear: implement the #IRGC terror listing, freeze assets, dismantle networks, #StopTrananationalRepression & stand with #Iran’s people in all their diversity. #BarayeAzadi