Benjamin Holbert retweetledi
The #1 pitching stat to track at every level:
Early and Ahead (E+A%)
It is the STRONGEST predictor of walks.
So what is early and ahead?
It is essentially 2 stats in one.
Early:
Anytime the ball is put in play on 3 pitches or less (except 2-0), regardless of the result.
It can be a home run and it counts as an early.
There can be an error and it still counts.
The result does not matter for this.
Ahead:
Anytime an 0-2 or 1-2 count is achieved.
Once again it doesn't matter what happens after that.
You could end up walking the batter or giving up a hit, it would still count as an ahead.
Every at bat results in an early, ahead, or nothing.
There can only be one result per AB.
For example, if you strike a batter out on 3 pitches, that counts as an ahead, not an early.
Also, if you get to 0-2 and then throw a ball, you don’t get credit for 2 aheads in the same AB.
To find your E+A% add up all the early and aheads and divide by batters faced.
Average E+A% by level:
D1 - 68.9%
MiLB - 69.1%
MLB - 72.7%
You can also split them into individual stats.
Guys that have high ahead% are likely striking out a lot of batters.
MLB averages:
Early - 33.2%
Ahead - 39.5%
The E+A% goal for most players is 70%, but the best of the best are 75%+.
2023 E+A% Leaders (100 innings min.):
1. George Kirby 84% (2.5% BB)
2. Logan Gilbert 80.9% (4.7% BB)
3. Joe Ryan 80.8% (5.1% BB)
2023 E+A% Bottom Tier (100 innings min.):
1. Tylor Megill 66% (10.2% BB)
2. Blake Snell 65% (13.3% BB)
3. Michael Kopech 63.6% (15.4% BB)
MLB average BB% is 8.6%.
This stat can be used at the amateur level and all the way up to the big leagues.
Increase your E+A% and watch your walks go down.
Tonight's NLCS starter, Aaron Nola had an E+A% of 77.3% and a walk rate of 5.7% this season.
During the playoffs he has an E+A% of 81.2% and a walk rate of 2.9%!
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