Ben

Microstrategy polymarket insiders have the opportunity to do the funniest thing: using their position to manipulate financial markets for a huge profit. Details below ⬇️ Yesterday a bunch of obvious insiders (clean accounts, trade only one market, huge size) front-ran the MicroStrategy announcement by trading prediction markets related to a BTC purchase by the company. See these accounts for more details: @meeeeteeee" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@meeeeteeee @StrippersOfGaza" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@StrippersOfGa… @fromagi" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@fromagi @danielesta" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@danielesta @0x13Ea268FdE59136E1674b1338D7323F8C79d635C-1751810068621" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x13Ea268FdE5… @arme" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@arme @Polymarket21" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@Polymarket21 @mari000" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@mari000 They all made a decent amount of money, a few tens of thousands of dollars. But they could go for a much bigger payday. Profit from inside trading MicroStrategy markets on Polymarket is limited by the thin liquidity. If they want to win big they have to find a deeper market. Now that they are identified as Microstrategy insiders, all eyes are on them. Millions of traders are looking for their next move. They can take advantage of this by faking an inside trade. A MicroStrategy BTC purchase announcement doesn’t have much effect on bitcoin price. But a MicroStrategy liquidation would be catastrophic for bitcoin and the price would freefall. The process is simple. 1. MicroStrategy insiders open a huge fat short (leveraged) position on Bitcoin. 2. MicroStrategy insiders aggressively buy “Yes” contracts on this market: polymarket.com/event/will-mic… They should be able to “clean” the sell-side of the orderbook with ~30k$. If they want the message to be crystal clear, they can also buy all the available “Yes” contracts on these markets: polymarket.com/event/will-mic… polymarket.com/event/microstr… 3. At that point crypto traders would panic and sell their bitcoin holdings fearing Saylor's liquidation. Futures traders would open large short positions to try to profit from the move. The price would plunge. It’s time for MicroStrategy insiders to close their short position on Bitcoin and take profits. If they want to optimize, they can now buy BTC (preferably spot) to also profit from the move up, when the market will realize that MicroStrategy will not really be liquidated. Finally, they sell their "Yes" contracts to what's left of the liquidity in prediction markets. This tactic should be highly profitable. If I were a malicious actor, I would try to buy those accounts and execute it. But I’m not, and all of this is probably illegal everywhere. Don’t do this at home.

@nicoco89poly ils achètent moins cher car ils copient un trade maker? (même dans ce cas quelque chose m'échappe car il faudrait qu'ils soient eux aussi maker)

parasite (noun) An organism that lives on or in another organism (the host), deriving benefit at the host’s expense. Example:

@mazz_dev @nicoco89poly le problème c'est qu'il a peut être envie d'accumuler au fur et à mesure plutôt que de lump sum

@nicoco89poly je comprends pas pourquoi ca t'enerve ? ils font juste monter les prix de ta position en soit non ?

@udiWertheimer @notsoeasymoney Screenshot is misleading, there was no trade at this price

@notsoeasymoney man i wish this had any depth

Will Microstrategy be called on any of their Bitcoin Loans? Its a coin toss right now as far as Polymarket has it! Has until the end of the year... What exact dollar amount does Bitcoin need to be hit here for this to happen?

@HarryDCrane Obvious troll but the relative age effect is real

Beta thinking. Game the system to get an edge in 1st grade. Then have no idea what to do when faced with competition down the road.

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well. Outcomes bring non-linearity, dated contracts, and an alternative form of derivative trading that does not involve leverage or liquidations. The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM. Outcomes are a work in progress and currently only being tested on testnet. Canonical markets based on objective settlement sources will be deployed once technical development is complete. Canonical markets will be denominated in USDH. Pending user feedback, the infrastructure will be extended to permissionless deployment.

@Euanker @BoringBiz_ Often it is the same personality traits that make people raise a huge bankroll and lose it all. Many such cases in crypto

@BoringBiz_ I don’t understand how people just have such ridiculous risk appetite. I have run up a 500k port and I get scared to place > 0.5% port on a bet 🤣

There is currently a guy on Wall Street Bets who blew a $550K account down to just $200 within the span of 18 months Be grateful for whatever returns you are posting up because it can always be so much worse

@holy_moses7 @DextersSolab Safe strategy

@BenjaminDuthoit @DextersSolab Just vibe bet both sides on the same market

THE SAFEST STRATEGY FOR POLYMARKET 98% of traders don't even think about it. The other 2% are currently on a leaderboard. The secret lies here: Real money isn’t in being right. It’s in where and when you place risk. This is where the so-called carry trade comes in. Think of Polymarket as a time machine for probabilities. Early on, markets are messy. Too much uncertainty. Too many outcomes priced near zero. Late in the game, it flips: > One outcome becomes obvious > Everything else goes to zero The strategy is simple in concept but hard in execution: You hunt extremes. Early phase - you touch only the cheapest outcomes. Late phase - you touch only the most expensive ones. Not because you believe in them. But because the market misprices time. A 1% outcome priced at dust can quietly become a 100x if sudden news drop. So one hit literally pays for dozens of misses. On the other side, late markets are the opposite trade. When resolution is close and reality is clear, odds go up toward certainty. Buying near-sure outcomes isn’t exciting, but it compounds. This is why the strategy works: > Small risk on longshots > Bigger size on near-certainties > Never equal sizing > Never emotions Example market: [polymarket.com/event/fed-deci…] > $10 on a 1% outcome at $0.01 (rn it's 0.7% cause the resolution is in 2 days, but let's imagine we placed our bet before) > 9 times it dies = –$90 > 1 time it wins = +$990 Profit: +$900 You only need a few hits per month. Then (close to the resolution): > $1,000 on a $0.97 outcome > Wins = +$30 > Do this 20 times = +$600 My setup: > 10% of bankroll = early longshots > 90% of bankroll = late certainties Longshots losses are covered by late bets. That's my main point. Most people do the exact reverse. They go big on hopium and small on safety. That’s why they lose. Some automate this, some do it manually. Both work if discipline is there. And that’s the irony. This looks boring and feels slow, but over weeks, it snowballs. That’s how prediction markets become the easiest way to make money on. And why those who understand this don’t need to predict anything at all. Will drop a list of best markets for this exact strategy soon. Better turn your notis on.

@holy_moses7 @DextersSolab one of the lastest inventions of Polymarket slop posters x.com/Nekt_0/status/…

@DextersSolab What the actual fuck did I just read

@DaedalusRsch The exact architecture and mechanism of a dark pool is not trivial at all. Do you have a good example in mind?

One of the biggest problems in prediction markets today is that if price is the product, then the probability signal produced by market competition becomes a public good that everyone can observe for free. That makes it hard for platforms to capture value, and in some cases their net revenue can even turn negative once you subtract maker incentives from trading fees. One possible approach is to run price discovery for high-value information in a dark pool, then charge external observers for access to the resulting signal. Another is to let users freely fund maker incentives in the specific markets where they want better information. Is anyone building this?

@jay_azhang FWIW OpenAI pre-IPO trades at 775B valuation on hyperliquid: app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/vntl:OPE…

You can currently buy secondaries on - xAI at $230B valuation - OpenAI at a $725B valuation If these were publicly traded equities, which would you buy?

@CarOnPolymarket 100% inescapable security measure

Donald and Barron Trump can not place bets on Polymarket and Kalshi The 2 websites are blocked on the White House WiFi network according to NOTUS Interesting

@gigiialc You are describing futarchy applied to the corporate world en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futarchy

Conditional prediction markets are very interesting but I have not seen anyone try it yet. This is how I imagine it working: Siggi’s runs two markets: One for Peppermint and one for Pumpkin Spice. When the Pumpkin Spice market predicts a higher chance of selling out, that’s the flavor they launch. Everyone who chose Peppermint is refunded. Consumer brands spend thousands on AI analytics to try to predict these things so surely this could be a cool solution.

@kaledora What do you think of pre-IPO markets?

a platform for pokemon card perps recently blew up (for reasons other than the product, tbf). from it the question of what can and can’t be perpified keeps coming up. here’s how we think about it: perpetuals are derivatives. they derive from something. the core principle is that perpetuals require a robust underlying to derive from. what you need for a viable perp market: - a deep spot market: real price discovery, volume, and two-sided flow; the price has to exist independent of your perp market - reliable data: you need multiple independent data sources agreeing on price within tight tolerances. the point is to have multiple defensible mark prices from venues that can’t easily be manipulated - resistance to manipulation: if someone can move the underlying with a few hundred K, they can easily hunt liquidations on your perp. we see this happen all the time with long tail crypto alts on CEXs what can't be perpified: - illiquid assets: tokens with thin books; anything where a modest order moves price 5% - "unpriceable" assets: art, NFTs, collectibles, trading cards; no continuous price discovery means no mark price - assets without credible data providers: no manipulation resistant oracle = no perp the positive case: US stocks, ETFs, treasury bonds, commodities, indices, major FX pairs, large-cap crypto. these are ideal candidates. the underlying markets have: (1) deep liquidity across multiple venues, (2) reliable data feeds, (3) manipulation costs that exceed any perp market’s liquidity ostium is built around these assets. our goal is to give global, permissionless access to markets that have defensible prices. perps require discipline in what you list. you cannot and should not perpify everything, and attempting to do so takes away from the massive value perps provide in already liquid markets.

@mikhryc0x @philtsa @TrendleFi 😬

@BenjaminDuthoit @philtsa @TrendleFi bro look at the bottom 🤣

Just flipped @philtsa on the @TrendleFi leaderboard

@mikhryc0x @philtsa @TrendleFi I don't see you though...

@BenjaminDuthoit @philtsa @TrendleFi hehehe lol

@philtsa @TrendleFi 😁

@BenjaminDuthoit @TrendleFi I will take it personal

Brian Armstrong has been futarchy pilled by @robinhanson

@nic_carter @kwinten_blomme Brillant article for a semi-enlightened audience like myself. Has anyone written a good faith counter argument in the same format?

@kwinten_blomme because they are centralized and can easily update this isn't the killshot you guys think it is murmurationstwo.substack.com/p/bitcoin-deve…

Bitcoin’s “mysterious” underperformance (due to quantum) is the only story that matters this year. The market is speaking the devs aren’t listening