Roger Bertozzi

32.2K posts

Roger Bertozzi

Roger Bertozzi

@BertozziRoger

Studied philosophy. Career in European public affairs and multilateral organisations and negotiations. Arts, literature, science, technology and geopolitics.

Katılım Kasım 2020
3K Takip Edilen524 Takipçiler
Roger Bertozzi
Roger Bertozzi@BertozziRoger·
"Le gazoduc Nigeria-Maroc pourrait renforcer la position du Rabat – aux dépens de l’Algérie. Estimé à 23 milliards d’euros et traversant 13 pays africains, le projet, approuvé le 19 juillet, fait toutefois face à plusieurs obstacles." legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/07/21/…
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Council on Foreign Relations
Yemen's Houthi rebels declared on July 20 that they would impose a complete naval blockade on Saudi Arabia—opening a new front in the U.S.-Iran war and threatening to choke off the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potentially major consequences for the global economy. cfr.org/articles/anoth…
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Samantha de Bendern
Samantha de Bendern@samdebendern·
🚀 Avec l’aide de la Russie et de la Chine, les missiles et drones iraniens deviennent plus performants. Face à l’échec de la diplomatie, l’idée d’un changement de régime refait donc surface à Washington. ⚠️ Mais l’escalade épuise déjà les stocks militaires américains : 30 % des Tomahawk et 50 % des Patriot auraient été consommés en quelques semaines. 🇨🇳 Des armes prévues notamment pour une éventuelle guerre autour de Taïwan. ➡️ En tentant de contenir l’Iran, les États-Unis pourraient donc ouvrir une fenêtre d’opportunité à la Chine. ft.com/content/59f83b… Trump is slipping into an Iran quagmire
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
America is not running out of bombs. It is running out of the shield that makes bombing Iran survivable. That is the war's real asymmetry, and it inverts everything. Once US aircraft flattened Iran's fixed air defences, America could swap million-dollar standoff missiles for cheap guided bombs. Offence got cheaper by the night. But there is no cheap way to stop a ballistic missile in flight. Iran's reply burns THAAD, Patriot and Standard Missiles, the scarcest, slowest-built weapons America owns. Tehran / IRGC does not need to out-bomb America. It needs its surviving mobile launchers to keep forcing those interceptors out of the tubes. The numbers are stark. Defending Israel the most closest and the most powerful Ally in the first phase, America fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors, roughly half the Pentagon's entire inventory, + over 100 Standard Missiles from Navy ships. Around 200 remain. No new interceptor has arrived since August 2023, and none is expected until 2027. Output is about 96 a year. Washington signed a 35 billion dollar contract to reach 400, over seven years. Money solved the order. It cannot solve time. One myth is worth correcting. Iran is not firing cheap drones to make THAAD shoot them down. THAAD kills ballistic missiles. The drones stretch radars, fighters and the lower layers, the cruise missiles hunt for gaps, and the ballistic missiles force the expensive shots. Iran is attacking the entire defensive stack, not trading one drone for one interceptor. Then China. It does not run a total embargo, and it does not control 98% of all rare earths. It controls roughly 98% of refined gallium, dominates the magnet chain, and runs a licensing system that quietly denies foreign defence buyers while civilian trade flows. America has received no Chinese yttrium for two months. Beijing can throttle the upstream of the very weapons Washington needs for the next war. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf is one unavailable to Ukraine, Korea or the Pacific. Iran's remaining launcher is worth more than the missile inside it, because it forces America to spend time, and time is the one munition no factory can surge. This war is not a test of which magazine empties first. It is a test of which side makes the other spend the future to survive the present. Oh boy!
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Sina Toossi
Sina Toossi@SinaToossi·
Trump's Iran failure is bigger than Trump. .@NancyGEO and I argue in our new piece for @theNation that America's repeated failures toward Iran reflect a deeper institutional problem: a foreign policy establishment that too often recycles failed assumptions, avoids accountability, and mistakes more coercion for better strategy. Drawing on my recent report for @CIPolicy supported by @plough_shares and @Horizon2045, we examine why decades of sanctions, military pressure, and diplomatic reversals have repeatedly strengthened the very forces they were meant to weaken, and why Washington keeps learning the wrong lessons from failure. The challenge is not simply crafting a better Iran policy. It is rebuilding the institutions, oversight, and accountability that allow American foreign policy to learn from its mistakes. Read the full piece in The Nation: thenation.com/article/world/…
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France à Jérusalem 🇫🇷 🇪🇺
1/4 Joint local statement of diplomatic missions 🇧🇪🇨🇦🇩🇰🇪🇺🇫🇮🇫🇷🇮🇪🇳🇱🇳🇴🇪🇸🇸🇪🇬🇧on the extensive use of administrative detention by Israeli authorities without formal charge. Over 9,000 Palestinians are detained in Israeli prisons, including thousands held without charge or trial.
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Omar Shakir
Omar Shakir@OmarSShakir·
"When world's most powerful country declares war on world's only criminal court, it sends message that powerful are above the law. It isn't the ICC Rubio is dismantling brick-by-brick—it's the rules-based order." @DAWNmenaorg responds to @SecRubio in @WSJ wsj.com/opinion/if-ame…
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Tayab Ali
Tayab Ali@tayab_ali_·
🚨 Urgent Lawyers letter to ICC states Parties Extract “You are the decision-makers. You alone will determine whether the Prosecutor is removed. Yet the man whose removal you are considering has been told that his representatives may not address you, may not answer before you the case put against him, and may not correct errors, of which there are many, in the material placed in front of you. We know of no court or tribunal in any proper and fair legal system that bars a person facing the gravest professional sanction from being heard. So we write openly, though restricted by confidentiality obligations, because no other route has been left to us.” Read more ⬇️
Tayab Ali@tayab_ali_

🚨 An urgent message to the States Parties of the Rome Statute ahead of the vote on 24 July from the Prosecutor’s legal team. We act for Karim A. A. Khan KC, Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. On Friday, at a Special Session of the Assembly of States Parties, your delegations will vote in person and by secret ballot on whether the Prosecutor should be removed from office under Article 46 of the Rome Statute, in respect of allegations he has consistently denied. Before that vote is cast, you are entitled to know how this process has been conducted. The President of the Assembly has closed every formal channel through which Mr Khan’s legal team might make representations to you and has written to all States Parties suggesting that you should not meet with us. Mr Khan KC and his legal representatives were refused accreditation to attend the session on 24 July. The right under the rules to address you on the substantive decision of misconduct has been flatly denied to us. Consider what that means. You are the decision-makers. You alone will determine whether the Prosecutor is removed. Yet the man whose removal you are considering has been told that his representatives may not address you, may not answer before you the case put against him, and may not correct errors, of which there are many, in the material placed in front of you. We know of no court or tribunal in any proper and fair legal system that bars a person facing the gravest professional sanction from being heard. So we write openly, though restricted by confidentiality obligations, because no other route has been left to us. These are the facts. 🧵👇

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Middle East Eye
Middle East Eye@MiddleEastEye·
“It is clear that an activist agenda is being pursued to remove the Prosecutor from his post" A former UN investigations chief has accused the ICC’s executive body of subjecting Prosecutor Karim Khan to a “stitch-up” in their decision to suspend him from office over misconduct allegations middleeasteye.pulse.ly/mu7fmilpiq
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Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev: Russian energy infrastructure is being destroyed and taken out of operation. Russia is no longer able to supply all of its traditional partners with sufficient gas and oil. We should not abandon the green agenda, but at the same time European banks should reconsider their decision so that oil and gas infrastructure projects can once again receive investment. If that happens, Azerbaijan will be able to significantly increase its exports of natural gas and oil to Europe, including Germany.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC says it has destroyed the entire Amazon's central data center facility in Bahrain with several cruise missiles overnight, and warns it will now strike more tech facilities, per Tasnim. The IRGC says this will begin a new phase, with Iran having previously warned 18 US tech companies including Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia, and Oracle as "legitimate targets." Iran has also previously declared all of Elon Musk‘s company as targets, specifically Starlink ground stations and satellites.
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Edwy Plenel
Edwy Plenel@edwyplenel·
« Un régime où l’on est libre tant que l’on ne trouble pas l’ordre du pouvoir » : l’histoire retiendra que cette bascule s’est produite sans que l’extrême droite soit au pouvoir. Excellente recension d'un livre important de Me Jérôme Karsenti @jkarsenti lemonde.fr/idees/article/…
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Roger Bertozzi@BertozziRoger·
No need to persuade if the right kind of pressure and leverage is applied. Impotency is an imposture : non action by a State is always a choice.
The New Yorker@NewYorker

After the horrors of the October 7th attack, no one in the Biden Administration questioned Israel’s right to retaliate. Nor did anyone question the imperative for U.S. military backing. But the White House disagreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about how best to crush Hamas. President Biden and some of his top advisers worried privately that the scale of Israel’s retaliation could put U.S. forces at risk, complicate negotiations to release the hostages, and undermine the region’s long-term stability. But they publicly backed Netanyahu. “We repeatedly raised and discussed options for withholding weapons,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s former national-security adviser, told David D. Kirkpatrick. But the President “always deferred on that decision, because we kept thinking that we were close to getting a deal” for a hostage release and a ceasefire. Sullivan said, “When you look back at it in the cold light of day, the trap in that kind of thinking is easier to recognize.” He added, “I will say straightforwardly—we should have put more pressure on Israel to take a different approach.” Several senior U.S. officials told Kirkpatrick that virtually everyone involved in Gaza policy thought that Israel was killing more Palestinians than was necessary to achieve any legitimate objective. Nevertheless, the Administration gradually came to believe that it could not persuade Israel to alter its approach in Gaza. Kirkpatrick reports on how Biden enabled Israel’s aggression toward Gaza—and Iran: newyorkermag.visitlink.me/LnrmrB

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