Better Scotusblog

Saving this one Entering or trying to enter the US contrary to US immigration law is a crime, alway uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req… Note: Civil penalties under this subsection are in addition to, and not in lieu of, any criminal or other civil penalties that may be imposed.

Rebel News will defend David Menzies from this ticket, issued by a malicious and partisan cop. This same @TorontoPolice cop, at an earlier occasion, threatened to arrest David if he called any pro-Hamas protesters "terrorist." We have it on tape. See you in court.

@SkaRowi @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 Your freedom, which was our gift to you Which apparently you don't value very much

@BetterScotus @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 Co jesteśmy wam winni białe śmieci?

NATO is in far bigger danger than anyone realizes. And the reason has nothing to do with defense budgets. The real danger is psychological. It’s cultural. Europeans didn’t just free-ride on American security for 80 years. They built an entire identity around the idea that they evolved past the Americans protecting them. That identity is now the single biggest obstacle to Western survival. And the darkest irony is: we helped build it. After World War II, Europe wasn’t just economically shattered. Its culture was in ruins. The cities, the universities, the concert halls, the museums. Rubble. The Marshall Plan rebuilt the economy. But culture wasn’t a priority. Not at first. Then the Iron Curtain dropped. And suddenly culture became a weapon. American diplomats, academics, artists & scholars flooded Western Europe. We funded their universities. Supported their orchestras. Rebuilt their museums. Promoted their intellectual life. Not because European culture needed saving for its own sake. Because Eastern Europeans were struggling for Maslow’s mist basic needs. We needed the view from the other side of that Wall to be intoxicating. So America built Western Europe into a showcase of self-actualization. Art. Philosophy. Cafe culture. Long vacations. Universities where people studied literature instead of surviving. We were manufacturing jealousy. And it worked. The Wall came down. But here’s what no one accounted for. When you give a society self-actualization on someone else’s tab long enough, they forget it was a gift. They start believing it was organically theirs. And when they look at the country that funded it all, a country busy building aircraft carriers and semiconductor fabs and shale fields instead of reaching the Maslow’s pinnacle. An overweight American in a ball cap who can’t tell Monet from Pissarro. Who eats fast food. Who drives a truck. Who builds strip malls instead of piazzas. And to a culture trained in aesthetics but stripped of strategic awareness, that American looks uncivilized. So the arrogance takes root. And once a culture decides another is beneath them, they stop listening. Americans say wars are sometimes necessary: crude. Oil is the backbone of prosperity: unsophisticated. Kids build companies in garages that reshape the planet: crass. Wall Street finances the global economy: vulgar. Europe has no world-class technology sector. No military capable of strong defense. No energy independence. No AI capacity. What Europe has is culture. The culture we paid for at the expense of us reaching Maslow’s pinnacle. For decades that was fine. We funded the museums, protected the sea lanes, and tolerated the sneering because the arrangement worked. Then Europeans stopped keeping the contempt private. They started saying it to our faces. In their media. In their parliaments. At every international forum. “Americans are stupid. Americans are violent. Americans are a threat to democracy.” We could have moved the Louvre to NY. We could have built a Venice here. We could have stolen your best artists, designers, philosophers and more… like your conquering armies did for centuries. Instead we funded them. And all we asked for in return was to let us visit. You don’t have the military to defend your borders. You don’t have the technology to compete. You don’t have the energy to heat your homes without begging dictators. What you have is an 80-year superiority complex FUNDED BY AMERICANS, protected by American soldiers, and built on the false belief that self-actualization is civilization. It isn’t. Civilization is the ability to sustain itself. By that measure, Europe isn’t a civilization at all. It’s a dependency with better wine. That’s not a threat. It’s a weather report. Build a Navy. Or don’t. But stop lecturing the people who made you “better than us” Our “crudeness” our “stunted liberal education” our “ugly strip malls” are because we sacrificed our culture to support yours.

@CCoderDyne @physicsgeek For me the lightbulb went off when I tried to setup a computer simulation Because after a while I realized the cleanest & most correct code was p(win)(no flip) = "was my initial guess correct?" That's 1/3 So p(win)(flip) = 2/3 After which I didn't bother writing the code :-)

@BetterScotus @physicsgeek Right, but it sometimes helps to see it in action.

I remember back on GE's GEnie (pre-Internet as we know it BB) in the Jerry Pournelle group this problem came up in discussion. Pournelle and some others said the 2/3 probability was wrong but a handful defending their positions tenaciously and around day three or so, Pournelle said "I'm an idiot. It's obviously 2/3." A very smart man doggedly attacked the correct position for a while before understanding that he was in fact incorrect. For the record, I've had people argue with me relentlessly about this problem and they will not accept the correct answer. So I set up the problem using playing cars and walked through a simulation of 100 rounds and the result were around 2/3; 100 tests is not enough of a simulation. So they came around to believing the correct answer, but they were not happy about it.

@sarahsalviander @physicsgeek How likely was it that your first guess was correct? 1/3 If your first guess was wrong (2/3) and you switch, what's your chance of winning? 100% It is therefore intuitively obvious that you switch :-)

@physicsgeek The solution is weird and unintuitive. I accept it because logically it works, but it's still unsettling.

@JamesWBlakey @physicsgeek No, the unstated assumptions are that Monty Hall will always 1: Open a door 2: Let you switch If he's allowed to chose when to give you the option, then unless he WANTS you to win you're a fool to take it, because he can choose to only offer when you guessed right

The unstated assumption is that Monty Hall knows where the prize is and is not randomly opening doors. If Monty doesn't know where the prize is then: 1/3 of the time the contestant chooses correctly 1/3 of the time Monty accidently reveals the prize and the game must be restarted 1/3 of the time the contestant doesn't switch doors and loses. So when Monty doesn't know where the prize is, there is no advantage in switching.

@CCoderDyne @physicsgeek You don't need to write a program 1: What's the chance that your initial guess is correct? 1/3 2: You are now offered the other 2/3. Do you accept? Yes

@physicsgeek When I was in college I wrote a small program to test the 2/3 probability hypothesis. It was, in fact, correct.

@MoronPundit "Always switch" because the host has information that you don't have, and because the host is required to show you one and then offer to let you switch That makes it 2/3, because your initial guess only had a 1/3 chance of being correct But w/o the above conditions, no go

I've run computer simulations. It's 2/3. My brain hates it, too, but it is very rigorously correct. Always switch.

It's hard for Democrats to argue they've dumped their 2020 positions (or even their 2024 positions) when they're still pushing for open borders and oppose deporting any illegals. Not to mention double down on gender nonsense. And now we're getting those crazy Easter messages.

Keir Starmer did not “fight” for me when I was sexually abused from age 5. Nor the countless little girls like me who were groomed, raped, tortured and killed. He silenced us. He betrayed us. He failed us. Keir Starmer didn’t care until it became politically convenient for him

@EuropeanRetired @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 "france, norway, sweden and others moved military to greenland." because they wanted a chance to pathetically grandstand So to wrap up: 0 US bases destroyed 0 actual invasion threats Eurotrash wanker runs away

@EuropeanRetired @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 Wow, you really are pathetic and stupid That's not a military invasion threat, and to pretend that it is is lunatic "The hard way" is "bribe enough locals to get them to vote Denmark out, and us in" So now you're 0/2

"The NYT published a link to critical original reporting on Iran 45 minutes ago. A good, fair story" Note you had to include those last 4 words, because it's highly unusual for the NYT to publish "a good, fair story" Which is why they don't get engagement

@NateSilver538 "The NYT published a link to critical original reporting on Iran 45 minutes ago. A good, fair story" Note you had to include those last 4 words, because it's highly unusual for the NYT to publish "a good, fair story" Which is why they don't get engagement

The NYT published a link to critical original reporting on Iran 45 minutes ago. A good, fair story. They have 53m followers. The engagement metrics you display say they got 94 likes and 33 retweets out of that. Is that accurate? And if so, shouldn't you work on a better algo?

It's not my data. The source is Cluvio, which is linked to in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically, that would kill engagement. And I know that traffic is hard to count. Especially for a private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it.

Was Hunter Biden’s laptop real?

The Babylon Bee is almost always really good, but about once every two weeks or so it achieves perfection.

Weeks after Gerry Adams denied on oath that he was a member of the IRA, declassified intelligence discovered by the Belfast Telegraph says that in 1996 he was on the IRA Army Council – and then was re-elected to that post. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/…

@EuropeanRetired @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 No, shit for brains, France denied US overflight rights ~1986 for bombing Libya after they carried out a terrorist attack them murdered US soldiers in Europe We've LONG known we can't trust "NATO countries" when the chips are down, and therefore can't trust Greenland in Denmark

@BetterScotus @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 And greenland is exactly why we refuse usa now, u got the events backwards. U had 50 bases there, now 1. Defence is not the reason but greed and kleptocracy, like shown by venezuela.

@EuropeanRetired @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 A bunch of pathetic whining? Yes, I give it a pass Because it's full of stupidity on the order of "13 US bases destroyed!" because they were attacked, or "US threatened to invade Greenland!!11!"

@BetterScotus @AlexBeaurepaire @A_A_RonFTW @johnkonrad @french_report78 I think u missed this

It feels like NATO countries are mad that the US is taking action to stop a regime that is 1) an actual threat to NATO countries and 2) a military ally of Russia which NATO was literally created to defend against. It's almost like other NATO countries don't know what NATO is.

BBC upset about President Trumps “profanity riddled” warning to Iran. BBC indifferent to Iran executing protesters on a daily basis. You can’t hate the BBC enough