Tom Smithy

@jaygreco194737 @METhompson72 Jay do you homework before accusing Mark of something. The man is the a legend. I've followed him for years. His podcasts are amazing. I added to my tin position because of him which have been done real well. I bot $MMRDF when he was on the BOD which 5x'd and others $NWBO

Mark Appreciate you sharing your background in this public square… and all the activities you performed with Nwbo before you i assume established a position.. in Nwbo But you aren’t passing the sniff test successful hf managers I know fly under the radar and travel under the cover of darkness..and don’t project their positions.. nor do they make a guess in a public square on potential price targets .. You seem weak.. actually and maybe a short… something about mark .. just isn’t sitting well with me.. sorry Lots of crazies on X

Time to put a price target on $NWBO. I am in at 20c. With MHRA approval for DC-VAX anything is possible, so this is a real thumb-suck, but $2.00 does not seem unreasonable.

Now that we have the Tin King on board, what resource investor is next? Koala @YellowLabLife i saw u have exposure to $BE a company i bot and hold from PE days. Want to venture further and give $NWBO a look. IMO it is the biotech Filo del Sol prior to striking hole #40.

@METhompson72 @joeretired41 Check out @metacollectiveG posts. He was an ER doctor who was a tremendous $NWBO supporter who unfortunately passed. He spoke of dendritic cell treatment for a vast ray of conditions including all solid tumors, viral infections, anti-aging, etc.

@joeretired41 @Bigsky716 There is a non-zero chance that this could be the largest company in the World. You don’t get to say that sort of thing many times in a career. $NWBO #cancer

@Nina_kd @METhompson72 Unreal

Imposter popping up fast! Anyone who talks about $NWBO, they will make up a phony of that person. @METhompson72

@METhompson72 Two of the people who i have learned an incredible amount from are Mark and the goat @TraderPamplona. Pamps I’m eternally grateful for Filo. This one is way out of your wheelhouse, so just a soft push to consider giving it a look $NWBO

@Bigsky716 Timing is everything - the risk / reward asymmetry on this looks outrageous!

Northwest Biotherapeutics: $NWBO My top pick into end of 2026. Super high risk (8/10) but potential for multi-bagger.

@METhompson72 You’re right about that. Can’t believe you found your way here. There is a tremendous group of $NWBO longs that have put many years of DD into this. This one goes deep. Ask if you have questions.

@garysavage1 Huge con artist. His subs lost 80% of their accounts so he is begging for more subscribers. His SMT is absolute garbage

Of course it gets more complicated for them if they don't need XX million share and instead they need XXX million shares, Doesn't it?

I posted long ago there was an easy way out of the $NWBO lawsuit for the D's. They have 2 problems, the lawsuit and their likely huge short position. All they had to do was settle by offering to buy XX million shares at a large premium like $5 a share. Problem solved

When people place price targets on $NWBO do they realize there are potentially 1+ billion naked short shares, 70 million or so reported shorts and potentially 1.1B+ shares of institutional demand pending approvals. How does that math work in price targets?

@d_stock07734 @Cellophane_eyes @ApptillionAI @andrewcaravello @Investisco @nwbo This is where things get REALLY interesting with $NWBO. Not only does the likely massive naked short position need to cover, institutional ownership should hit 70%. Do the math on that... 1B naked, 70m or so reported shorts, 1.1B+ institutional pent up demand after approvals.

@Cellophane_eyes @ApptillionAI @andrewcaravello @Investisco @nwbo Well, $NWBO is unknown to most outsiders. I suppose institutional investors can easily collect shares from retailers when the sp hits even $5.

📘 THE RULE OF THIRDS $NWBO Inferred 33% Partnership Blueprint, Made Fully Explicit There are rare corporate moments when capital structure, governance, manufacturing, and leadership history all line up in a way that strongly suggests a specific strategic direction, even if the company has not said the quiet part out loud. Northwest Biotherapeutics appears to be in such a moment. With the proposed 900 million share authorization increase, the largely untouched Series C Preferred pool, the Sawston Grade C manufacturing scale, the Advent acquisition, and Linda Powers’ own partnership language at the 2024 Annual Shareholders Meeting, a coherent picture emerges. 🔍 Important upfront clarification Northwest Biotherapeutics has not publicly announced a 33 percent partnership structure. What follows is a thesis that infers such a structure from: •the math of the capital architecture, •the design of the Series C Preferred, •the board and CEO backgrounds, •operational moves like the Advent acquisition, and •real world biopharma precedents for minority strategic stakes. This is an interpretation of public data, not a disclosure from the company. With that made explicit, here is the structure that appears to be hiding in plain sight. 🧩 I. The Architecture Hiding in Plain Sight The proposed increase from 1.7 billion to 2.6 billion authorized shares adds 900 million shares. That increase is almost exactly one third of the post increase number. On the surface this could be treated as a generic authorization. Under forensic scrutiny it behaves like something else. A one third expansion is precisely the size needed to accommodate a one third strategic minority stake when combined with the conversion capacity of the Series C Preferred. No one at NWBO has said “we are structuring a 33 percent partner stake.” However, when you line up: •the existing share base, •the unused Series C capacity, and •the requested 900 million increase, the resulting geometry supports one scenario much better than any other. That scenario is a structured strategic partner capped at roughly one third, not a control buyer at fifty plus one. So the first pillar of the Rule of Thirds is simple: the math naturally fits a one third ceiling. 🔐 II. Series C: The Protected Entry Vehicle The Series C Preferred is the heart of the instrument stack and it is almost pristine. As of the latest 10 Q: •10,000,000 Series C Preferred authorized •about 818,000 issued and outstanding •each share convertible into 25 common •total potential: 250 million common equivalents •only a small fraction converted to date More than ninety percent of the Series C pool remains unused. This class is not debug financing. It is a deliberate entry lane for a serious counterparty. As a preferred instrument it typically offers: •liquidation preference ahead of common, •potential redemption rights, •consent rights over major actions, •the option, not obligation, to convert into common when conditions are met. In corporate finance terms this is mezzanine equity. It occupies the space between ordinary common and straight debt, giving a strategic partner downside protection and governance hooks while preserving upside exposure. Nothing in any filing says “this will be reserved for a big pharma partner.” However, this is the exact type of security that global pharma, large biotech, or a major strategic investor would expect as their entry class into a sensitive platform. So Series C functions as the inferred first leg of the partner stack, somewhere in the neighborhood of ten percent if fully deployed. 🧮 III. The 900 Million Increase Completes the Equation If Series C provides roughly 250 million common equivalents, that leaves the rest of a one third stake to be funded in common. At 2.6 billion authorized shares, a one third holding would sit around 860 to 870 million shares equivalent. The gap between the 250 million Series C capacity and that one third level lines up with the 900 million authorization request once you factor in a small buffer for flexibility. Using the latest 10 Q numbers as a working frame: •current common outstanding is roughly 1.33 billion, •Series C conversion capacity is 250 million, •outstanding warrants and options sum to a few hundred million more, •the new 900 million authorization sits on top of this. You can think of the post authorization structure like this, in rounded terms: •about half the 2.6 billion base is existing common, •around ten percent sits in potential Series C conversion, •another mid teens percentage sits in options and warrants, •leaving roughly one mid thirties percentage block represented by the 900 million new shares. Within that 900 million: •roughly 600 to 700 million shares could complete a one third strategic stake when combined with Series C, •the remaining 200 to 300 million provide operational flexibility for compensation, milestones, or limited financings. The alignment is striking: •Series C provides the first protected slice, •the 900 million creates room to finish the stake, •the total window naturally frames a 33 to 35 percent partner capacity. This does not prove that NWBO will execute a 33 percent partnership. It does show that the existing Series C pool plus the 900 million new shares together enable such a structure with almost surgical precision. The more symmetric the math, the less it looks like a random authorization and the more it looks like cap table engineering. ⚖️ III A. Survival Math Versus Strategic Math A common counter argument is that NWBO is simply desperate for cash and needs 900 million shares to drip into the market via at the market offerings. To test that, you have to run the numbers. From the same 10 Q: •quarterly cash burn is on the order of the high teens of millions when non cash charges are stripped out, •cash on hand at quarter end was in the mid single digit millions, •the share price has recently traded around the twenty to thirty cent range. If you assume: •a two year operating runway target, •a burn of roughly 19 million dollars per quarter, then the two year need is around 152 million dollars. At 25 cents per share, that is on the order of 600 million shares. Yet the request is for 900 million. If you hypothetically used all 900 million purely for financing at 25 cents per share, you would raise around 225 million dollars. That corresponds to nearly three years of runway at the same burn rate. For a company: •expecting a regulatory decision in a shorter window, and •explicitly talking about partnerships and commercialization, three years of ATM based survival capital at current prices would be: •excessively dilutive, •strategically clumsy, and •internally inconsistent with the stated trajectory. It would also be nearly impossible to execute in practice without crushing the share price, making the math circular and self defeating. The survival only hypothesis struggles against its own arithmetic. The scale and symmetry of the 900 million makes far more sense if a large portion is intended for a concentrated, premium priced strategic transaction, not a slow bleed of micro financings. 👑 IV. The Architect: How Linda Powers’ Background Shapes This Framework The PRE 14A and public biographies describe Linda Powers as having more than twenty years of experience in corporate finance, restructurings, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, and IP licensing, including a long stretch running Toucan Capital, a venture fund focused on biotech and advanced therapies. Her work has included: •structuring complex equity deals, •negotiating cross border licenses, •sitting on boards of science driven companies, •guiding translational science into commercial frameworks. People with that toolkit rarely treat capital structure as an afterthought. If you take that background seriously, the observed pattern becomes easier to interpret: •Series C is not accidental, •the 900 million increase is not arbitrary, •the largely unused preferred capacity is not a coincidence. None of this guarantees a 33 percent partner. It does make a capped strategic minority stake a plausible, even likely, expression of her design intent. 🛠️ V. A Board Built to Negotiate and Defend The board’s composition is another layer of signal. You see: •a CEO chair with deep M and A and venture experience, •a former ambassador and counterterrorism official versed in high stakes negotiation, •an audit and finance expert classified as the audit committee financial expert, •a biotech capital markets specialist, •and the company co founder for scientific continuity. This is not the default configuration of a company polishing itself for a quick sale. It fits more naturally with a scenario in which the board expects to: •negotiate with large global counterparties, •defend against opportunistic bids, •structure long lived alliances that touch both science and economics. The 900 million authorization also serves a defensive function. In a hostile or opportunistic bid scenario, a large authorized but unissued pool gives the board the ability to: •issue new shares to friendly holders or broadly into the market, •dilute a hostile acquirer’s stake, •force any would be buyer to negotiate directly rather than accumulate quietly. So the 900 million is both: •offense, in the sense of enabling a strategic partner, and •defense, in the sense of acting as a deterrent and tool against predatory acquisition attempts. That dual role matches what you would expect from a deal maker intent on preserving independence while still opening the door to serious capital. 🔬 VI. The CEO’s Own Words on Partnering At the 2024 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Linda Powers did not frame the future in terms of an exit. She framed it in terms of partnering. She noted that the company was open to partnering. She described partnering as potentially strategic, financial, or both. She observed that partnering could be regional or tied to specific applications. She acknowledged that they had received interest and were engaged in collaboration discussions. She also spoke explicitly about building a franchise in dendritic cell technologies, rather than stopping at a single indication or label. No specific ownership percentages appear in any of those quotes. There is no “we intend to bring in a partner at thirty three percent.” Yet the orientation is clear: •alliances over exits, •franchise over one off product, •multi regional, multi indication thinking. Taken alongside the math and the instruments, those statements strengthen the partnership hypothesis even as they stop well short of confirming any specific numerical cap. 🏭 VII. Sawston and Advent: A Node, Not a Local Shop On manufacturing, the company has described Sawston’s capacity in terms of: •individual Grade C suites producing roughly one thousand to eleven hundred patient products per year, and •full buildout supporting something on the order of fifteen thousand products annually. That scale does not map neatly onto a narrow, single country GBM business. It maps far more naturally onto a regional or global node that can: •support multiple tumor families over time, •serve as a manufacturing anchor for one or more partners, •provide the backbone for expansion beyond the United Kingdom. The Advent acquisition fits neatly into this reading. NWBO: •collapsed a related party vendor into a wholly owned subsidiary, •simplified its structure for any future due diligence, •brought all GMP control inside the public company, •and restored millions of shares and options to treasury. Firms in pure survival mode usually sell assets and loosen control. Here the company bought its key manufacturing partner and tightened control. That is the kind of move you make when you expect others to inspect your infrastructure closely and you want clean, unambiguous ownership when they do. 🌍 VIII. Combinations, Uplisting, and Sequencing Another part of the pattern is clinical and commercial positioning. The company has repeatedly signaled an interest in combining DCVax with checkpoint inhibitors, targeted therapies, and other immune modulators. That creates obvious synergies with portfolios of large oncology players who already own those agents and are searching for platforms that can rescue or extend their performance. DCVax, conceptually, sits at the instruction layer of the immune system. It can, in principle, make other agents work better or in populations where they currently fail. That is exactly the kind of platform a strategic partner would want meaningful but not absolute ownership in. On the markets side, management has been clear that uplisting is a goal but have tied timing to when the broader strategic context is appropriate, rather than treating uplisting as a standalone cosmetic event. A reasonable reading of the intended sequence is: 1. regulatory clarity, 2. strategic alignment or partnership, 3. then capital expansion and uplisting. The Rule of Thirds thesis fits that sequence comfortably: the authorization and Series C structure are part of making a future partnership mechanically possible once the scientific and regulatory gates are cleared. 💼 IX. Industry Precedents and the 25 to 35 Percent Window There is nothing exotic about a large player taking a minority strategic stake in the thirty percent neighborhood. The cleanest template is the Gilead–Galapagos deal in 2019. Gilead: •invested roughly 1.1 billion dollars in Galapagos at a premium, •raised its ownership to about twenty two percent immediately, •received warrants to move up to 29.9 percent, •and agreed to a ten year standstill preventing it from acquiring control. In return it gained broad access to Galapagos’ pipeline outside Europe for a decade. Gilead’s leadership was explicit that they chose this structure over outright acquisition to preserve Galapagos’ independence and innovation culture. In another register, the Bristol Myers Squibb–Celgene transaction, despite being a full acquisition, left Celgene shareholders with roughly thirty one percent of the combined entity, illustrating that even in mergers the thirty percent band is a natural equilibrium for a significant minority position. More recent licensing and co development deals, such as those between Sanofi and Novavax or between large pharma and emerging genomic or RNA companies, frequently include equity components that align economic incentives beyond simple royalties. The exact percentages vary, but the pattern is consistent. Strategic minority ownership large enough to matter, yet small enough to avoid control, is standard in biopharma. The thesis here is not that NWBO is creating an unprecedented deal shape. It is that NWBO has quietly wired itself to be compatible with the deal shapes that already dominate serious platform partnerships. 🗳️ X. Why Vote YES, and What a NO Vote Actually Means From a shareholder perspective, the core question is not “will this exact partnership happen” but “what architectures are possible or impossible after the vote.” A YES vote: •authorizes the additional 900 million shares, •preserves the ability to structure a one third stake for a strategic player if conditions line up, •allows the Series C class to function as a genuine entry mechanism instead of a mostly theoretical layer, •keeps large scale partnership and eventual uplisting mechanically feasible, •does not itself issue any shares or create dilution on day one. A NO vote: •blocks the 900 million authorization, •preserves the current cap table but removes the simplest path to a large minority stake, •forces any future partner to work with a much tighter equity cushion, making alternative structures more likely, •may slow or complicate the company’s response if a serious counterparty wants both economics and meaningful equity. There is no promise that a partner arrives if shareholders vote YES. There is a certainty that specific architectures, including a 33 percent structure, are unavailable if shareholders vote NO. The vote is therefore about optionality. YES keeps that option alive. NO bolts that specific door shut. 📌 XIII. Final Statement The Rule of Thirds is not an inside leak. It is a structural reading of what Northwest Biotherapeutics has already put on the public record. The numbers fit a one third cap. The instruments fit strategic entry. The board fits negotiation and defense. The CEO’s background fits deliberate control. The manufacturing and Advent moves fit pre partner positioning. The public comments fit partnership and franchise logic more than sale logic. The industry precedents, especially Gilead’s 29.9 percent standstill in Galapagos, fit the idea that a thirty something percent stake is a natural resting point for a serious minority counterparty. At the same time, the company has not said “we will bring in a partner at 33 percent,” and nothing about markets or regulators is guaranteed. This remains a thesis, albeit one with unusually strong structural support. For shareholders and observers, the key insight is simple. If the authorization is approved, the capital structure becomes fully compatible with a high value, globally credible, one third strategic partnership that leaves NWBO independent and levered to the upside. Whether such an opportunity appears, and whether management chooses it if it does, are questions for the future. The architecture that would allow it is being assembled now. ⚠️ Disclaimer This narrative is an analytical interpretation of Northwest Biotherapeutics’ public SEC filings, public statements, and other publicly available information. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or legal advice, and it does not represent any inside knowledge of the company’s plans. All partnership structures, ownership percentages, and strategic outcomes discussed are hypothetical and may not occur.

@garysavage1 @DVSignals Savage subscribers are down 70% to 95% on their options positions. Others have been completely wiped out. He has zero risk mgmt. Moved his sell targets so many times at the top, didn't sell any until he panic sold at the bottom. Later bought when IV was sky high. Arrogant as hell

This was always just a retest of the March low and a normal first daily cycle correction. It was never going to make a lower low. In fact it was a very weak retest of the low. You fell victim to recency bias just like almost everyone does at bottoms and tops. Yes it took a little longer than I was originally expecting but in the end chalk up another I told you so in a very long line of I told you so's. Eventually I will get one wrong but for now the trolls will have to crawl back under their bridge with their tail between their legs again.

$SILVER clearly invalidated the micro-breakdown for now. We got a macro/news-driven squeeze and what now looks like a fake breakdown on the lower timeframes. But this is exactly why I wrote “clean break below ~72” as the prerequisite. I don’t just throw out targets. I give levels. No clean break below 72 = no confirmation = no sub-70 setup yet. The broader 4H structure I’ve been tracking is still the same bear-flag structure, but silver now needs to prove weakness again. Until then, the setup is delayed, not confirmed. Quick reminder: I’m always happy to debate charts, levels and structure. I also comment on other timelines, but with context, charts and an actual thesis. Low-effort victory laps, childish comments and hindsight shots add zero value... Keep it constructive or you’ll simply be blocked.

@hoffmann6383 Merck and merck serano are separate companies without a current relationship

@PoliticalWinter @CscottLawyer No, it’s not true. It’s a ridiculous comment. The stock’s not that liquid.

@CscottLawyer True, but why? It's more profitable and less demanding to partner with some level of exclusivity. Just because you can buy something doesn't make it the smart way to secure the advantages of it.

$NWBO Talk about a partnership with a big pharmaceutical corporation ("BP") is nonsense. BP could buy more than 5% of NWBO on the market for around $20M, file a Form 13D with the SEC after 5 days and continue buying NWBO shares. BP could buy majority for less than $1B.

Yes please... $NWBO The Company has identified a collaboration that could potentially lead to a second source of capacity for DCVax production.  If the second source is needed, the Company anticipates that it could be brought online with significant cost savings.

The highlight of the $NWBO 10k is that it appears they found another site / partner for manufacturing. Capacity may skyrocket

@kaspersenInvest Same

$NWBO are we there yet ? wonder where we are in the process ? anyway we’ll wait a bit more , as we know what we hold ! my feed is so calm and quiet, maybe because all the negative profiles w zero followers are blocked long time ago , i can strongly recommend it

@joeretired41 @Ilovetech194249 Truthfully don't understand what he is saying

@joeretired41 @Ilovetech194249 Wondering the same

#NWBO $NWBO 🚨💪THE APRIL 15TH REALIGNMENT: WHY THE "SYNTHETIC" SCREEN IS EXPIRED: investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_ms…