Bijan Khajehpour

Germany has lost its relevance to diplomacy with Iran and the nuclear negotiations. The constant use of “must” by Metz aims to hide and compensate for this marginalization.

NEW: Will Beijing side with Tehran or its own interests? 🇮🇷🇨🇳🇺🇸 As Trump visits Beijing, Iran is debating whether its vital strategic partner will help mediate a deal with the US—or pursue its own interests at Tehran’s expense. Details on @amwajmedia 👇 #Iran #China #Trump

It was a pleasure to join @BeckyCNN for this segment of her show.

Economist @Bijankk tells me the cost of the Iran war goes far beyond the financial fallout.

Useful to keep in mind next time Trump repeats that he wants a "Venezuela scenario" for Iran. Europe's total silence over this behavior is shameful.

NEW: From oil tankers to data packets. IRGC-linked media is floating a plan to charge fees for subsea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming unauthorized cables are an "occupation of Iranian soil underwater." More on @amwajmedia 👇

My latest for @TIME: #Iran is not being governed by a single man susceptible to pressure, isolation, or removal...rather, by a hardened network that has made itself less visible, more collective in its decision-making, and more difficult to coerce. time.com/article/2026/0…

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is a structural inflection point where even Iran is being forced to reconsider overreliance on the chokepoint. For all Persian Gulf states, the long-term trajectory is clear route and economic diversification which will render Iran's new found leverage less significant. 👇 nytimes.com/2026/05/09/wor…

Will the US naval blockade severely damage Iran’s oil sector? Despite the media hype about irreversible damage, the technical reality of Iran’s oil wells and domestic capacity tells a different story. ✍️@BijanKK for @amwajmedia 👇 #Iran #Oil

@BijanKK Read the full analysis in: English: amwaj.media/en/article/wil… Arabic: amwaj.media/ar/article/wil… Persian: amwaj.media/fa/article/wil… #IranWar‌

First, Iran's oil industry would supposedly implode in 13 days. Now, Israel is saying that the blockade will need up to 240 days to really have effect. Brought to you by the same people who have since 1992 said Iran is one year away from nukes.

As @amwajmedia reported last week, fringe radicals in Iran are getting their wings clipped while negotiations are ongoing. In move that would be unlikely under Ali Khamenei, even hardliner mouthpiece Kayhan has publicly admonished them. In a sign of weakness rather than strength, one hardline MP—incidentally one of several lawmakers who were in Islamabad for the Qalibaf-Vance talks—is now calling for the dismissal of Foreign Minister Araghchi from the negotiating team. Such rhetoric is unlikely to sway Qalibaf, who is closely working with President Pezeshkian and Chief Justice Ejei. amwaj.media/en/media-monit…

In May 2019, Trump resolved to cut Iranian oil exports to zero. In response, Iran attacked four vessels off the coast of Fujairah. The U.S. did not defend the UAE, nor Saudi Arabia after the later attacks on oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurrais. Iran's leaders revealed that Trump was unwilling to start a war to defend U.S. allies. In May 2026, Trump again resolved to cut Iranian oil exports to zero. In response, Iran struck an oil facility in Fujairah and attacked several vessels. The top U.S. general told reporters that the attacks are "below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point." Iran's leaders revealed that Trump was unwilling to *restart* a war to defend U.S. allies. We are truly back to square one.

If you want to learn about the US blockade on Iran and understand where things may go, without hyperbole or any political agenda, highly recommend @BijanKK's latest analysis. It looks at technical dimensions of Iran's options and what may realistically happen without a deal.

NEW: Will the US naval blockade severely damage Iran’s oil sector? Despite the media hype about irreversible damage, the technical reality of Iran’s oil wells and domestic capacity tells a different story. @BijanKK breaks it down in this analysis for @amwajmedia 👇

#Iran’s announcement of an expanded control envelope in the Strait of Hormuz - coupled with strikes on oil facilities in Fujairah and strikes on oil tankers - points to a deliberate escalation toward the United Arab Emirates’ oil export bypass routes. The objective is to keep alternative export channels at risk, sustain elevated oil prices, and block any perception of normalization. In other words, the message is that Donald Trump’s mission in the strait will not be cost-free. Instead, it will generate greater complexity and sustained pressure on the energy market.

#Iran’s strategy in this war has always been about imposing a global cost for it. It keeps finding alternative ways to do that as the #US pressure rises

My latest piece for @amwajmedia amwaj.media/en/article/wil…

Neither Americans nor Iranians trust the French. And after the JCPOA debacle's exposure of Europe as strategically irrelevant, doubt there's any real respect for Macron either. At best, his office may command some residual respect, but even that's running on fumes.

Former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs appears to have no idea about Iran's multi-tier exchange rate regime and what the open market exchange rate reflects. Making up only estimated 5% of FX market, latter is mainly a gauge for consumer sentiment. It's also a means for interest groups to put pressure on the central bank and the government, all while many of the same groups benefit from arbitrage opportunities. As for the notion of capital flight resulting from the blockade, that suggests unawareness of how sanctions have bottled up money inside Iran. Even few regional outlets, including UAE, are no longer safe. Crypto being targeted too. Main impact is thus likely the movement of money into FX, gold, property, cars, capital goods etc. Lastly, the idea that the Islamic Republic sees the rial's value as a status symbol is from the early 2000s. US secondary sanctions under Obama completely changed dynamics on that, with successive Iranian administrations not only devaluing the national currency to promote exports but also to fill budget deficits.