Sabitlenmiş Tweet
To anyone who doesn't understand the fake deal theater, here's what's going to happen: the IRGC is going to approve the MOU that the American negotiators purposefully softpedaled, under Trump's instructions, with terms that are totally unacceptable to Trump and the US.
Trump will backtrack, either adding conditions again before IRGC publication, or (if it's published) saying it is nonsense and not what they were working on (this is a lie). We will go right back to where we were. But with oil prices still suppressed. (Note: they may start creeping up; some of the big boys are getting long).
Why? Because Trump and the IRGC both want to speed along the energy crisis.
Sure, if Trump can blockade the IRGC while he opens the strait by destroying radar, shooting down drones, and destroying speedboats, he absolutely will prefer that option. It means he gets total leverage over the IRGC and can get whatever he wants. But ultimately, that won't be feasible. Because very few ships will want to pass through a strait were they're being attacked. A little will trickle out, that's it. So energy crisis here we come.
The sooner the energy crisis, the sooner Trump gets supreme leverage over almost everyone in a myriad of ways. I'm not going to go through the litany of bully opportunities Trump will have. @BowTiedLobster has gone into depth in this field. Delving deep into Trump's mind is a real stretch for me. It's taxing to my system.
Trump had a reputation as an extremely aggressive cutthroat in real estate for a reason. When he had leverage, he pushed it to the absolute maximum. His "allies" were really just people he pushed into being his vassals. (Hm, would you look at that.) His adversaries, he hurt as much as he could. Now he's in his final term as president, and he has the most powerful military in the world by a mile. He's using that leverage, and he's taking it to the limit.
He's already calling on Europe and others to monitor and secure the strait. He knows he has leverage, relative to them. They're much more energy dependent. But if they don't give him his free ride, he'll just keep the stranglehold going. Eventually, he wants to control Iran like he controls Venezuela. he wants another vassal state. And he will not concede that plan.
Credit again to @BowTiedLobster for first bringing this theory of action to my attention. One of the first things I read from him was the assertion that both Trump and the IRGC wanted to stall for time. This matched too well with what I was seeing from both sides. I had to try out its verity, and found it overlayed perfectly.
Ask yourself, why does it seem like both sides are stalling? Why does it seem like we're stuck in a perpetual dance, each side pushing terms the other will never agree to? Because they both want this. The only difference is Trump is still testing out other, even better options (a great deal that puts him in charge, or taking over the strait while maintaining the blockade). Those just won't work.
All the while, Trump and the administration are making sure the markets stay calm and prices suppressed. When this explodes it will be everyone else's fault. The IRGC, for supposedly lying in their negotiations (they didn't). Europe, the GCC, and everyone else for not helping with the strait. Etc. etc. All to gain maximum leverage. To be the greatest of the losers.
So energy crisis here we come, all the faster.
English
