ThePodFather

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ThePodFather

ThePodFather

@Biopharm_Sean

Biopharma professional. UPenn. Content on this page are my views and are not financial advice.

California Katılım Eylül 2025
78 Takip Edilen51 Takipçiler
ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
@Master_SeaSeo This is just basic hiring for brand teams. Staffing begins as part of pre-launch planning and I have absolutely seen instances where hires like this are made and approval is not achieved. Not saying it’s the case here but let’s not read too much into it.
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Master Sea🌊
Master Sea🌊@Master_SeaSeo·
1/2 I expect The smoking gun for $QURE Accelerated Approval (AA) is hidden in plain sight. 🚨 ​The new "VP of Advertising" job requires expertise in "Subpart H" and "FDA via 2253". $qure
Master Sea🌊 tweet media
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
@chiragontwtr Paul works at Merck KGaA, which is not $MRK. You may know this but just to clarify if not for any readers
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Chirag Shah
Chirag Shah@chiragontwtr·
$ERAS $RVMD $MRK Now these are some interesting takes (from some interesting people) on the trade secret theft:
Chirag Shah tweet mediaChirag Shah tweet media
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Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst·
This is the first time at a bar to watch sports. This is so fun lol
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
A few people have asked whether I hold recently popular names like $ERAS or $VERA. Not currently because I haven’t researched these myself to understand the business case. There are great investors on X but blindly following into trades within biopharma is a risky endeavor.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Within the current enforcement environment, $TARS likely had internal and external counsel review, along with others. While the DB market may be overstated, I’ll buy significant dips for the TP-05 asset. Will do a separate post deep diving on this.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
My take on the @CulperResearch report. Kuddos on the quality research; curious if OIG investigates. Having been in pharma for a while my gut says $TARS did their due diligence, but we’ve also seen industry do stuff like this plenty of times. My company outlook below.
Culper@CulperResearch

NEW: We are short Tarsus Pharmaceuticals $TARS, maker of XDEMVY, a $2,000 eyedrop for demodex blepharitis. We think XDEMVY rests on a TARS-funded Medicare copay scheme raising serious Anti-Kickback concerns, real TAM is a fraction of the hype, and $TARS whiffs on '26 FY numbers.

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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
@jianguangchen I think it was actually decent research. May or may not materialize into anything but the bigger issue is why establish a short for so little upside lol. Even at their adjusted revenues the company seemed pretty fairly valued. The R/R wasn’t there to short IMO
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watermelon101
watermelon101@jianguangchen·
$TARS up more than 25% since the short report bottom. why short a company with a real drug for unmet medical needs when there are so many fraud biotech shitco around?
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
@DmitryKovalchuk While theres definitely more divergence than usual is XBI catching up to the broader market the correct framing? Some correlation is there but the industry doesn’t necessarily track to the broader market often times right?
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Dmitry Kovalchuk
Dmitry Kovalchuk@DmitryKovalchuk·
I see many people are getting worried about $XBI biotech sector getting ahead of itself. I disagree: we have been damaged badly by 4 years of a bear market. We are literally at the $QQQ $SPY Q1 2024 level. We are still catching up with the broader market.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
$CRVS and $NKTR riding some momentum following the $APGE takeout. Not adding to my positions personally but keeping a close eye on both. Once Nektar’s litigation with Lilly is settled I would expect further momentum.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
@A_May_MD they'll pay for what they did to those 2000 souls
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Closed my $MRNA leaps today for ~800% gain. Keeping my common stock position for pipeline exposure (4157 & 4103).
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Nice $CRNX pickup by Vertex. Glad I jumped back in last month. I really like their CAH asset and think it will compete well with Crenessity.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
If ABVX plans for Q4 2026 NDA submission, standard review puts them with a PDUFA in late 2027. While some argue that waiting for CD makes sense, I think doing so actually could impact Y1 UC uptake. Looking the costs holistically I think striking a deal in 2026 makes sense.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Last $ABVX post before the holiday weekend. To understand why a deal is likely this year you need have an operational understanding of drug launch runway and deal mechanics. See below.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Second, there are financial implications including severance (especially given that ABVX is subject to EU labor laws). Both not only incur direct costs but indirect costs (opportunity), which are compounded in a time sensitive environment.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
Doing so right before striking a deal creates massive friction for the acquirer on multiple fronts. First, redundancy is a real issue and an integration team would need to work through this against a tight pre-launch window.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
A blockbuster drug launch requires a phased buildout, starting at least 18 months in advance (been there done that myself). This includes staffing FTEs across commercial, medical, market access, legal, etc.
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ThePodFather
ThePodFather@Biopharm_Sean·
A lot of speculation about why $XBI and many biopharma favorites spiked today. Important for any trader in this space to keep an eye on the macro environment. Worse than expected jobs report decreased the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting. Cost of capital.
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Keşfet

@Master_SeaSeo @chiragontwtr @insane_analyst @kevin__mak @CulperResearch @jianguangchen @DmitryKovalchuk @A_May_MD