BitcoinBoi
5.7K posts

BitcoinBoi
@BitcoinBoiiii
Bitcoin enthusiast since 2017. Nature lover. Traveler and adventure seeker.










Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich.


So taxing vacant, expensive property is actually a very good tax, and as much as I loathe Mamdani, this is not a bad idea. The logic is this: buying large properties and NOT LIVING IN THEM imposes externalities on other citizens: The first, of course, is that it eats up demand for real estate in the city, and there’s only so much room in Manhattan. Now, of course, they should just remove rent control and make more sensible building codes, etc., to increase supply, but supply is still always going to be limited, and you want that to go to people who are going to be actually living in the places that they buy. Second and more importantly, buying up real estate that sits empty imposes a cost on every business in New York and the employees and owners of those businesses because these wealthy owners, who are not in the city, patronizing restaurants, booking taxis, going to shows, etc., are taking up real estate from people who otherwise would. That imposes a cost on all of those businesses in the form of reduced demand for their products. Those people are also not paying the city taxes (ie sales taxes) that they would otherwise pay if they were patronizing businesses in the city. If you’re going to tax properties, it makes far more sense to tax empty properties than full ones.

A recent study found that people with tattoos face a roughly 29% higher risk of getting skin cancer.


JUST IN: Democrats soar in the 2028 Presidential Election odds. 61% chance they win.

This bear market won't go to $30K for #Bitcoin. The current market sentiment has seen the longest period with the #Altcoin fear & greed index<10. A lot of people are questioning whether or not the cycle will last and whether there's an actual use case for $BTC. There is. And it's the best moment to be allocating into this asset, and I'll write down why I think so. Historically, bull markets have been quite strong, and there has been significant retail interest. However, in the last cycle, there was no retail interest. As a matter of fact, #Altcoins basically didn't do anything. The altcoins peaked in 2024 and corrected severely in 2025 (that was the bear market year). Let's look at some historical context to put everything into perspective. The upside in the bull cycles: 2013/2014 bull: +4.0 sigma in the actual peak of the bull 2017 bull: +4.0 sigma in the actual peak of the bull 2021 bull: +2.5 sigma in the actual peak of the bull 2024/2025 bull: +1.5 sigma in the actual peak of the bull If you look at this data, it's clear that the markets have experienced weaker bull markets than the standard, and therefore, the upside has been lower relative to the mean. The interesting part is the bear market. 2013/2014 bear: -3.0 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market 2017 bear: -3.0 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market 2021: -2.5 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market 2024/2025 bear: -1.5 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market Historically, $BTC never underperforms in a bear market. This means the sigma outlier on the downside is usually 60-80% of the upside and is never heavier than the upside has been. 2013/2014 cycle: 75% 2017 cycle: 75% 2021 cycle: 100% current cycle: has reached this level already I clearly understand that people are aiming for that extended bear market and target $30-40K, because that's the standard 80% correction which should happen on #Bitcoin. However, that's the wrong thesis if you compare the data to previous bull and bear markets in this asset. The sigma-debt has already been paid off in the recent correction, and current market sentiment and conditions confirm this. I'm not saying that you shouldn't expect a potential test of the lows anymore, that's definitely possible, I don't think that we'll see much more downside from here. As I wrote yesterday, on average, 12 months after such an impact, #Bitcoin is trending higher with 100-140%. If you have that data point from a historical perspective, and the potential downside from here is 20-30%, it gives a clear R/R that you're looking for, right? Instead of waiting for deeper corrections, as people always do in these markets, I'd rather look for levels to accumulate at and seek more income to allocate to this asset.





















