BlueChipOil

@EthanHBellamy @WillRayValentin @EnergyCredit1 @losingyourmoney @CostEquity @clintbarnette @mr_skilling @MLPguy @Henry_M_Hoffman The world doesn’t need more light, sweet oil

What’s with the irrelevant CFB teams in Texas talking the most shit? Extending Rhett Lashlee and losing to Cal? Embarrassing…UT and A&M are crushing it with NIL

@ShanuMathew93 Why would the AI market blowing up impact non recourse data center debt?

“Investor appetite for data-center debt is so strong that some money managers have booked billion-dollar gains in a matter of days, even before construction of the facilities they are financing is complete.” “If the AI market blows up, the blast radius would be wide, hitting not only Wall Street firms, but also pensions, mutual and exchange-traded funds and individual investors, because of how debt is often sliced and resold across the financial landscape.” “Bond funds are clamoring for the deal[s] because it delivers high returns, or yields, typical of junk bonds but with protections associated with investment-grade credit ratings.”

@forrest_f_ @ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 15 GW is nothing….There’s 3.5 GW already confirmed BTM gas and that excludes the Meta/Entergy gas plants which may swing both BTM/FTM There’s a single BTM gas player that could have > 15 GW contracted backlog by 2027

@BlueChipOil @ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 Yes, do think BTM will be the go-to solution, but more so as a bridge. They have 15 GW of BTM gas in the 4th pic, but it's a bit buried.

BNP team vetted 60+ utility pipelines to develop a bottom-up build of load growth thru 2032 by region and by utility. -They get to a base case for US peak load growth of 141 GW by 2030 (90 GW data center, 50 GW other) vs. 85 GW bear and 222 GW bull -Load Growth by State (top states TX, GA, OH, VA, AZ), Regulated vs. Unregulated Markets (unregulated seeing ~57 GW by 2030) -They see ~122 GW of FTM Grid Gas required; only see BTM only 10% of the story at max (~15 GW)

@forrest_f_ @ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 …my read is those charts and the comment boxes are saying that (i) markets will be tight b/c S&D (ii) BTM gas won’t be meaningful Im not sure any tech company or DC co is backing (ii) Real world…have to consider BTM if you’re a large load

@BlueChipOil @ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 What approach is best? If we forecast load based on what supply can get built, then we end up with the same forecasts right? Supply slightly greater than load. The report is just trying to share one part of the equation - how much load is realistically trying to connect.

@ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 …biggest variable is the amount of collab b/w federal and RTO IX reform that has never happened in history..to all click in the next 6-12 mo…to allow base/bear by 2030 If you don’t believe Trump can fix all the policy headaches…then BTM gas is >50 GW (BNP solving for wrong X)

The point isn’t to say 140 GW is a die on the hill number that is their high confidence view out there, it’s back solving on what’s required based on the announcements and disclosures out there to make it work. Point of scenario analysis is to figure out what levers need to be pulled to end up with an outcome and then you debate it and probability weight it.

@xiaowang1984 @ShanuMathew93 On the other side - are data centers critical load? Isn’t that the big philosophical elephant in the room?

@BlueChipOil @ShanuMathew93 Lol maybe 140gw is optimistic but someone like PJM would probably give an expedited queue skipping study process if they view it as critical to security

@ShanuMathew93 @xiaowang1984 help me find the 140 GW of natural gas capacity by 2030 Are IX studies optional now?

@ShanuMathew93 …problem with equity research like this is that it needs to be cross functional (with input from data center team) Analyst clearly doesn’t understand load dynamics. Or utility projections. IX queue knowledge for generation also seems poor.

@Suicide95518428 DM me if you want to compare notes on who to blame

3/3 The only positives during the quarter for $MPC were: 1) $MPLX seems to be back to growing EBITDA 2) Slowed down on share repo and reduced net debt by $800 mm Absolute clown-show in Refining operations. Heads should be rolling on this kind of performance.

1/3 $MPC posted disastrous Q3'25 results with Refining EBITDA (incl. RD) shockingly bad at $1096 million - about 22% below Consensus and 31% below my estimate! For reference: Q2'25 was $1396 mm and USGC 3-2-1 cracks were a shade better this quarter x.com/Suicide9551842…

@mattlanza Dodgers win if they slide head first All this talk of baseball analytics and…they do that in the World Series in 2025?

This is INSANE.

@ArroyoNieto @ArroyoNieto please do a follow up article on how many sell side equity analysts excluded the off balance sheet debt in their EV calc in the next few months (next quarter?) @AyyouEm @StrapCap @HeyMan800

Just this month, Meta secured $60 billion in capital for data centers, part of its spending to get ahead in the AI race. But half of that won’t show up on its balance sheet. Here’s how AI firms are raising money, and using financial engineering. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@MLPguy @NCarolinaTrader Do the alternatives PE/PC boom now chasing retail money take some wind out of MLP/midstream? Historically there was significant retail interest and ownership Flip side…REITs seem to be doing worse than midstream? Or at least sentiment is poor over there

@NCarolinaTrader It’s just not as compelling in some cases for 4.5% yield stock like KMI that grows div less than 5% annually and has shown little EBITDA growth last 10 years despite a clear boom in gas demand…MLPs offer higher yields, but tend to have liquids assets also out of favor

Old enough to remember when EPD consistently beat expectations and was the toast of the analyst community…

@amn3siak “We are going to build a multi-state transmission line (over 700 miles) that transports curtailed renewables to load centers; it’s easy!”

OG power guys reading power takes from tourists

@SimonMahan How can you calculate LCOE if the contracts are confidential?

When most PPA's are on a $/MWh basis, LCOE is a reasonable proxy for power purchase agreement contract prices. Does it include all features in a contract? Nope. But contracts are often confidential, so we need some proxy.

@ShanuMathew93 @bahadorz Solar? Wind? Nuclear deals with tech? Not all 3 of those have $90 PPAs

@bahadorz Been reported and estimated on publicly / can back into using assumptions from the PPA announcements on specific deals

A power market puzzle: If Big Tech pays $90-100+/MWh for electricity PPAs while power price forwards trade at $50, why is there no arbitrage? TLDR: The 'gap' isn't real - corporate PPAs bundle 24/7 clean attributes, location premiums, and credit guarantees worth $25-60/MWh extra. Different products entirely.

@DrewSmithee Ok that is funny

@BlueChipOil See how the dates line up? Lol

This product has been available for over a decade...

@DrewSmithee Used at scale? Frequently? AES pays for this? Apex? EDPR? Reminds me of the solar premium AI tracking software that companies tried to sell. Promised upgrade to generation with technology and wasn’t as advertised

@BlueChipOil Yes. It was developed in Wyoming.

@DrewSmithee Has this ever been used in the US? I can’t imagine renewable developers (now with PE ownership) doing the following: 1. Higher capex (for this ML thing) 2. Lower MW / capacity factor 3. Lower cash flow from the project

@BlueChipOil The ML vision algorithm is tuned to only do large raptors They still get take permits and still kill birds, just less of them It costs money and reduces MWs You only do this if you have a hard time with fish and wildlife. Or you hire a biologist to stand there with binoculars

@ShanuMathew93 @ChevExec hasn’t CVX new energies been complete busts and boondoggles?

"Chevron's young business to build gas-fired plants that directly supply data centers is 'moving very quickly,' and final agreements with hyperscalers could come soon, Chevron New Energies president Jeff Gustavson tells Axios." "If I were to highlight one state that we're really focused on in particular, it'd be Texas, he said, citing attributes like gas availability and state and local regulatory environments."