BoofCapital

Let’s revisit one of the biggest myths in investing: timing the market versus time in the market. Vincent M. Randazzo, Ryan Gorman, and Shawn R. Keel already delivered a definitive piece of research debunking that myth. Now, in a new and powerful study, they push the argument even further, highlighting the destructive impact that drawdowns have on long term compounding. The conclusion is clear: buy and hold does not hold water (pun intended) A rigorous, data-driven analysis that challenges widely accepted beliefs. A must-read for anyone serious about performance and capital preservation. linkedin.com/posts/vincentr…

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial. There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance." 600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President. The distance is my best work. I am the reason these events are unrelated. World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence. Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated. Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated. Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated. Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated. Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard. On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well. The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders. Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial. His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded. The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency. Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name. On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio. Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job. 600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access. A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25. My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper. The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family. I am the reason these events are unrelated.

@abuviktor1 А с какого это перепуга какая-то пиздота по типу Биби решает, кого и сколько молотить?

Пит Хэгсет, министр нападения США: "Израиль - это единственный реальный союзник Америки." Почему? Потому что Израиль - это единственная страна, которая не трясётся, не заикается и не впадает в истерику, когда речь заходит о применении настоящей военной силы. Не ноет, не просит “прекратить войну”, не бегает жаловаться в ООН. Просто берёт и делает то, что нужно для своей безопасности и для того, чтобы враг понял: с нами так нельзя. Пока другие страны просят перемирия на любых условиях, Израиль просто молотит врага. И это, оказывается, именно то, что Америка сейчас уважает по-настоящему. Кто согласен?

Stanley Druckenmiller prioritizes the size of the win over the frequency of being right. Markets reward the few who visualize the future before the herd. Worth the watch and I often come back to this.

Why Isn't Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

tired on the ai-generated, undergraduate-level kwant textbook slop on your timeline? you fkin should be read these @macrocephalopod threads instead they are written by someone who actually does the thing. and knows, from experience, what matters and what is circlejerkery.

From @fcastofthemonth "This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are."

@peckerponzi Time to Eiffel Tower this crap back to where it belongs - 80k

@prostotak182 @LisaKrot @YLatynina Та не, тебе задали вопрос, а ты лицемерно решил слиться, пафосно прикрываясь «ЭСКОБАРНО, шо то хуйня, шо это». Хрюкаю с приравнивания ЕС и Пыни, а давно страна ЕС нападала на другую страну, визжа, что там нацисты и это вообще НАША ЗЕМЛЯ ИСТОРИЧЕСКИ?

@LisaKrot @YLatynina По мне - лучше ни Путина, ни Сороса. А вот если приходится выбирать, то выбирать между ними - не мне, а молдавскому народу. Я в посте лишь о том, что всё то, что они пишут в графе «почему надо выбрать нас - Ланселота, а не Дракона» - оно полностью расходится с реальностью.

Читал два дня комментарии к новостям о выборах в Молдавии. У людей всё сводится к тому, что «да и плевать, что брать деньги от ЕСа и Сороса - это в принципе то же самое, что брать деньги у Путина, оно же на святое дело всё идёт: руки Кремля поотсекать и встать на „правильную сторону“, демократическую и непогрешимую». И у меня в голове всё время крутился вопрос: «А что их заставляет думать, что эта сторона - хорошая и непогрешимая, кроме того, что они им сами так сказали?» Пропутинские отменят выборы и будут его марионетками? А быть марионеткой Сороса - чем конкретно лучше? Вся их деятельность направлена на создание войн и напряженности через агентуру. В стране уже есть горячая точка и чужая армия, в такой ситуации продаться соросятине - почти гарантированная напряжённость или даже война. Оппозицию запретят? Ну так АдГ в Германии клеймят «экстремистами», сама солнышко Санду сняла с выборов две партии, а в Румынии победившего в первом туре кандидата в президенты сняли, объяснив просто тем, что не те его спонсируют, не демократичные какие-то у него деньги. Посадят кого-то? Но сама солнышко Санду посадила одного из лидеров оппозиции на 7 лет, а во Франции главе оппозиции Ле Пен буквально нарисовали «дело Кировлеса» как Навальному. Свободу слова убьют? Смотри сегодняшний пост Дурова - французы с румынами требуют запретить оппозиционные каналы, а в Британии сажают за посты в Твиттере и обычный журнализм, в Европарламенте давно звучат призывы сделать интернет по паспорту. В политику вмешиваться будут? Смотри Словакию, Венгрию и особенно - Грузию. Первым с кровью приходится выгрызать исключения, чтобы не покупать ту же нефть, что и ЕС, только накачанную демократией с наценкой через Индию, а в Грузии просто сказали: «Вы не тех выбрали, сорян, адьос», ещё и назначенную французскую бабку объявили вопреки воле грузинского народа «президентом», а через USAID - прямое зарубежное спонсирование - организовывали протесты и беспорядки на улицах. Какие действия Брюссельского Обкома вызывают в людях веру в то, что они чем-то отличаются от всего того, в чём Путина обвиняют? Неужели, им достаточно пустословных, громогласных и идущих вразрез с реальностью заявлений о «правильной демократичной стороне добра»? Они давно в схватке с драконом сами стали драконом. А сейчас я всё чаще сомневаюсь, были ли они вообще когда-то Ланселотом.

@inmortalcrypto PDFs are the Best, imo

I'm feeling the urge to make more educational content (free). Which combo would you prefer: 1. > Complete guide in PDF's (PA concepts, risk management, etc.) > YT, raw videos of 1 hour, uncut. 2. > Threads (posted more frequently) > YT videos - 15 min max

@spicyofc Thanks for the educational content you‘ve been posting lately. Good stuff, much appreciated

VOLUME CHEAT SHEET • increasing = good for Breakouts • decreasing = good for Reversals Example↓

@RNR_0 Which exchange is this?

Funding rates for FX pairs on decentralized exchanges are interesting now that I think about it Let's say I hold 100k euros at the bank. Short EUR/USD equal amount just to catch the funding rate Need to think a bit more about this

Build your trading around structural tendencies of the market. They are enduring and will help you become profitable quickly. Investigate the fundamental physics underlying market movements for your selected trading timeframe. These structural tendencies are enduring; they remain constant from day to day and week to week. That is how the market has worked and continues to work. When you build an edge around a structural tendency, it will be enduring.

> your epistemology is outsourced to prediction markets > your policy is arbitrated by bond yields > your "human nature" is downstream of the interest rate > your shelter costs have overridden the reproductive instinct > your labour market decides how much immigration you get > 50 bps of GDP can make magic real > your fiscal path is the only bipartisan worry > stock market stochastics engineer your class dynamics > your only wars are trade wars in 2025 you're either learning macro... or you're thinking without a license

I cannot share exactly what it takes to be great. But I can share the following observations of my occasional glimpses at greatness momentarily existing: 1. Doing great things will require you to critically evaluate the spread between where you want to go and where you’re at now. Unless you understand this spread, you cannot even attempt to close it. And this will, by design and economic forces, look, at first glance, like an unsurmountable chasm. And you need to be honest to yourself (and your partners) about the costs associated to collapse this spread - in terms of opportunity costs, financial costs, and the most important and irreplaceable costs of all - your youth, time and vigor. AND you are going to need to acknowledge that it IS going to cost you - whether or not the premium outweighs the costs are a separate discussion; just embarking on this journey will sap you. 2. As an extension of 1), most spreads in life will require fixed costs. You can think of this as an activation cost to get ANYTHING done in life. I think there is a gross overestimation of how much “BIG AND GREAT” things cost to do over the mediocre. If you wake up, drag yourself to work and spend some hours working on a problem, you’ve only just overcoming the activation costs. Between this and the momentous things achieved by humanity is a matter of the additional hours and obsession to get things done. Don’t get me wrong - the will to put in these additional hours is non-trivial and is demanding, especially over long periods of time, but it’s still useful to recognise just how expensive the activation costs are, even when working on mediocre things. The takeaway here is that there is conventional wisdom to work on the big and scalable things only, because the marginal benefit is so much greater than the marginal costs (over the mediocre). 3. If 1) is being critical, logical and advocates planning, then this point flies in the face of that and is about suspending belief. Many people will look at how large this chasm is and succumb to the THOUGHT of crossing it. They think of the cumulative sum of effort needed to collapse the spread and crush their spirits in the process. In this, my experience when dealing with things that are extraordinary painful or requires an extraordinary amount of time to get good at (e.g. top percentile military filtering, self taught coding, trying to do better than the establish “industry best”, etc.) is not to think about how high Everest is. Instead, focus on one step at a time. Don’t think about how you are going to feel getting to the top. Ask yourself, can you afford to pay to take one step? You can? Take that first step. How do you feel? Good enough to take another? Then do that. And keep repeating this, only focusing on one step ahead of you. While doing all this, hold steadfast in your belief that your repeated steps will allow you to reach your destination. Others will waiver in their confidence in you when you stumble, and by god you will stumble often and hard - and you will need to HOLD STEADFAST and be optimistic that you will reach the destination. If you cannot be optimistic when others are not, you will not garner enough momentum to move out of the storm, and this is especially true when you are playing the captain in a ship. 4. No matter how tired you are, how bad your day has been, how crushed you are by your results, how stale your world and progress looks, you will often find you have just enough to show up and take a step. Sometimes that’s all you can do in a day and you need to understand that its okay. This is one step more than everyone else feeling equally shitty, equally downtrodden, equally defeated. If you can take 10 steps a day for the 100 days you feel like shit, you are 1000 steps ahead of someone who tapped out and sat on the sidelines. 5. Find allies who believe in you and will act as counterweight when you are feeling like shit and do the same for your allies.

@PostyXBT Except this one clearly has all the signs of just bleeding back down through the weekend, as apparently there is selling pressure and no buyers showing up

$BTC Imagine getting bearish at support Could never be me

@Fink_Money Hey David, Why do markets cheer when the tariff burden, in this case the 20%, will be reflected in higher prices paid by the consumer? Surely higher prices because of tariffs lead to lower demand and lower growth ?

Trade Talks: Vietnam Deal & OBBB Spark Optimism Trump’s deal-making machine rolls on. A 20% tariff on Vietnam, with trans-shipment curbs to block China’s tariff-dodging games, landed yesterday. Markets cheered; apparel plays like $ONON and $NKE rallied after initial jitters. India and Japan talks chug along, but Europe’s the tough nut. Trump may need to crank up the pressure to break their natural inertia. The big beautiful bill’s set to pass today, pre-market, boosting growth bets. Stocks: Rally Broadens, Winners Shine Momentum trades pressured. Tech still strong, cyclicals surge. Materials, energy, and consumer discretionary the sectors to watch. $ONON, $LULU, $NKE $DECK all reacted to the Vietnam deal. Now there's certainty, can the rally really get going... $SMCI choppy intraday but constructive on the daily, up 3.2%, with short squeezes looming. $COIN, $ORCL, $RDDT & $SYM hold strong Solar names like $FSLR rebound on funding clarity. FX: Euro 'Too Strong' ECB getting worried about the euro strength and potentially undershooting their inflation target... UK’s a fiscal mess: Reeves’ tears weren't the only thing to tank gilts, hinting at GBP weakness ahead. No good options here without a growth plan. USD exceptionalism’s primed for a comeback. Will today's jobs data spark the reversal or pile even more pressure on the Fed to get cutting? Big Picture: Growth Over Tariffs Trump’s bill tax cuts, no-tip taxes, deregulation, sets up a growth surge, passing today. NFP’s this week’s linchpin: Scotiabank’s 160k vs. Goldman’s 85k, with consensus at 110k. ADP’s negative print (first in three years) was ignored & wage growth held. ISM Services important too. Markets eye growth, not doom Ride the trend, dodge the noise. Join the Academy & smash this game. Britain’s risk appetite’s comatose; I’m jolting it awake. Get more Fink 👇👇👇