Bougain

Quick Recap - Closing off January with a record month of 76 R. I am truly humbled by how fascinating the markets are & grateful for the opportunity to participate in the world's greatest casino. Back to the grind for a better February.

@M19HAU @TheMensAdvocate what's funnier is that anything will always work in some areas because the human brain cherry picks and loves curve fitting

@TheMensAdvocate You know what’s funny? It works in some markets 😉

Creating an algo backtesting ema sma crossover

@SultanOf_Swing Well the last two years we were almost always in a bull market other than the tariff crash. Right now I'm getting chopped up pretty good trading in this poor environment. % wise...hard to say, but all the extended drawdowns would come from trading in environments like this.

@SultanOf_Swing Important to note that those all came in Bull Markets with indexes above their key moving averages

“The first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are.” — Charlie Munger

@STRchitect @AshwinTrades1 STRC is a ponzi. keep it as simple as that.

@BougainCapital @AshwinTrades1 ibit is cleaner if you just want btc exposure. but mstr gives you leveraged upside through the atm + strc yield on top. different risk profiles. depends if you want 1x or 2x btc with income

$CL $USO Absolutely insane move on Crude Oil I am out of my longs and am no longer bullish anymore Starting to get short with OIL at 100

@AshwinTrades1 yes - i think this might lead first when we turn back higher. not touching MSTR however, i would put my bets on IBIT instead.

@BougainCapital Crypto divergence is interesting as well

@AshwinTrades1 yeah definitely oversold but that’s levels where “crashes” or gap downs happen - just like how silver accelerated at overbought levels to parabola state. we’ll see how it plays out but the key is to be very selective with trades imo. tough one out there

I have been biased to the short side for a while now since this distribution started back in November But now it’s a little tricky down here, seeing some oversold indicators like breadth and that McClellan that was all over X😹 More on the neutral side here as I think the Vix is too high for market to go much lower super short term, so leaning a little bullish for the first time in a while. Vix also closed red on Friday which was interesting with the market also red I’m bearish on oil so I think that could give some relief to the market, but pops should be sold and I do believe we go lower this year

@AshwinTrades1 agree on the last statement. the bigger the gap, the better imo. thoughts on general indices? im personally short via a couple of inverse ETFs and puts (weeklies)

@BougainCapital I think lower high as well, but I also don’t expect it to go back down to where it was I think it will stay elevated between 80-90 for a while But I seriously doubt it can stay 100 and above for very long

NYSE McClellan Oscillator $NYMO fell below -85 for the first time in 8+ months, the lowest since April tariff dip. The short term risk is higher than usual. 3 month avg max drawdown was over 9%. But S&P 500 $SPX was higher 6 months later 100% of the time with avg gain of 6.6%.

One thing I've often mentioned is that if you're not comfortable with volatile markets, it's perfectly fine to take a step back. Sometimes, doing nothing allows you to observe the market more clearly and seize opportunities when they arise.

$BMBL

$BMBL feels like a founder-led, turnaround story to me. 30% workforce layoff, 80% cut in marketing spend in mid 2025. Active users stabilize despite marketing cuts in Q4 '25, targeting GAAP profitability Chart is severely beaten down. Thoughts on this, general? @blondesnmoney

Bumble $BMBL traded all the way down to 3.5x forward earnings into the print with nearly record high short interest (highlighted in our preview quote tweeted below):

@Polymarket money laundering via MEV bot

JUST IN: Crypto trader turns $50 million into $35k in a single swap after ignoring multiple slippage warnings.

@NeelMacro @WatcherGuru This is some AI slop sh*t, very un-original

Full story : Someone just lost $50 million in 30 seconds. And no single person stole it. Here is exactly what happened in simple terms. A trader tried to swap $50 million of USDT into AAVE tokens using a DeFi app on their mobile phone. The app showed a massive slippage warning. They ignored it. Slippage means the price moves against you because your trade is too big for the available liquidity. Like trying to sell 1000 houses in one day. The price collapses because the market cannot absorb it. They sent $50 million. They received 324 AAVE tokens worth $36,000. $50 million in. $36 thousand out. So where did the other $49.9 million go? MEV bots spotted the transaction before it confirmed and front ran it taking roughly $10 million. Block builders who process transactions on the blockchain collected $27 to $34 million in fees. Liquidity providers and sellers who dumped AAVE at inflated prices during the chaos took the rest. Nobody hacked anything. Nobody broke any rules. The code worked exactly as designed. The trader just ignored the warning on a $50 million transaction on a mobile phone. Aave offered $600K as goodwill. The remaining $49.3 million is gone forever. DeFi does not have a customer service number. There is no refund department. There is no "I made a mistake" button.

JUST IN: Trader accidentally swaps $50 million $USDT for $36,000 $AAVE on Ethereum.

@PurpleDrink_LLC 🤣🤣🤣

BTW Anand full ported $SNXX the 2x Sandisk at the Sunday night lows He's 1500x'd his account just acing every move in the memory complex since last Monday

Contrary to what you hear all over social media, over 80% of millionaires started out poor or middle class. How did most of them break through? No, it’s not day trading, market timing, or speculation. Most got there by saving part of every paycheck in their 401k. Start today, no matter how small the amount. Break through!

The older I get, the more I realise that the moments I felt closest to God were never on the summit. They were in the valley. Cold, broken, asking for help. That's where He meets us.

@teslabulltr @blondesnmoney reported to IBKR compliance

@BougainCapital @blondesnmoney Thats the only app you keep light mode, it’s an unknown rule.