barbaricboy

The bubble we’re in now feels like 1997/1998. Before this bubble bursts, there probably are another one or two melt-ups over the next 12-24 months. Investment banks have yet to “get in” on the action, so I expect the banks to try and take a bunch of the “AI” companies public to satiate the appetite. It’s totally ok to invest into a bubble, just don’t be stupid thinking it’s not a bubble :-) Many fortunes have been made selling before a top. More fortunes have been lost holding all the way down. A tiny set of the companies will be special ones. Have your short list, and have dry powder for when the valuations get super attractive. If you’re a founder and were too young to remember 1997 through the aftermath into 2002, then ensure you have someone you trust around you that has strong pattern recognition from that time period. If you do remember 1997-2002, and are short in this market, don’t let your ego get the best of you.

(full disclosure - i bought a bunch of $GME this morning) I fully agree with Michael Burry, there is material asymmetric upside here. I agree with his thesis that Ryan Cohen will close on one or more large targets, and execute on a plan of massive cost savings around marketing and product delivery for the target company or companies. The pro forma EPS purchase price multiple will be extremely low (imo). It’s basically a bet on Ryan’s ability to execute which I think is a good bet.