Impervious

Here's my longterm investment view on $clov... if the company can turn profitable and stave off bankruptcy, I believe it can grow to $50 a share. Buying 10k shares at $3 is a max loss of $30k and a long term target gain of $470k. Risk reward is there for me, personally.

@NoOneISH4601 @Ken_CPB It all rides on the year 1 cohort economics... their utilization makes or breaks the year

@Impervious38 @Ken_CPB Agreed. CLOV is poised to disrupt the entire MA system from top to bottom in a positive way. I worry that they might be a bit out over their skis still trying to be GAAP profitable by EOY.

$CLOV Judge DENIES CMS motion to dismiss... aka the lawsuit has legs. The Judge also ruled that Georgia is an appropriate venue, but leaves the door open to potentially change location for convenience. Looks like we will get further updates next Wedneday. litigationtracker.law.georgetown.edu/litigation/clo…

I'm here to watch CMS squirm... Clover / Counterpart are doing exactly what CMS has been asking managed care insurers to do for years and CMS can't even calculate stars correctly. If nothing else, I am hoping this case forces CMS to do better and have tighter controls on stars methodology. Government is cracking down on upcoding and their wrath extends to all payers. Then you have Clover who is leading by example focusing on improved clinical outcomes, and CMS punishes them for having patients stop taking medication when their doctor tells them to!

@Impervious38 @Ken_CPB Of note I asked Grok a few weeks ago what the chance of CLOV winning the case making CMS reconsider 2027 stars and the answer was 10-15%. Today it was 25-35% chance. Basically AQ(CLOV) vs. KK(CMS) all-in pre.

@NoOneISH4601 @Ken_CPB *merit based dismissal (not marital)

CMS tried to get the case dismissed on grounds of improper venue... they lost that argument with the Judge and now the case moves forward. I think what people are confused about here is what CMS went after for grounds of dismissal. They likely knew they couldn't argue merit, so instead they tried to argue venue. Either way, they lost. I'm not a lawyer, so I won't try and get into the details about procedural dismissal vs. marital dismissal, but in thos case CMS decided to try for a procedural dismissal.

@NoOneISH4601 @Ken_CPB

@Ken_CPB @Impervious38 Nope. Judge inky ruled on venue.

@Heffington4890 @CloverHealth @VivekGaripalli @andrewtoy Garbage take, just sell and move on

Calling it now. @CloverHealth @VivekGaripalli and @andrewtoy use this as their reasoning for not becoming profitable or having to dilute shares. “Sorry but our court fees were just so high we will have to push profitability to 2045”

@jason_koj I have no idea

@Impervious38 Do you expect the decision at the end of May or any chance it comes earlier?

Wrong again. Did I say anything about 4 stars? You're delusional. The Judge denied the motion to dismiss... literally means that the plaintiff has a legitimate argument... aka the case has legs. We all want 4 stars, but the context of the case is much wider than that. CMS is going to have to try and publicly defend their ratings methodology, which they have admitted is broken. Implications extend far beyond just Clover and could potentially impact the entire MA market.

@Impervious38 “Lawsuit has legs” is misleading. The judge only denied CMS’s motion to dismiss/transfer for improper venue and confirmed Georgia is proper. This says nothing about whether CLOV’s Star Ratings claims have any merit. I hope they win, but I think it’s a long shot.

@jason_koj Scheduling order due 3/25... Judge is basically asking both parties for final arguments about the venue location

@Impervious38 Thats good news, but i dont see anything in the link showing another update next wed.

@NoOneISH4601 @TheBeckford I don't have any information that you don't have access to regarding Q1 results, so I won't take your bait.

@Impervious38 @TheBeckford Ok, what happens when the Q1 EC is a dud?

My feelings on $CLOV This thing will soon 🚀 waiting on the market to understand it's significance as a AI healthcare player

100% not what Vivek said in his post 3 days ago... he's basically saying that generic AI companies will be valued as commodities in a few years. He is NOT saying that it will take a few years for Clover Health to re-rate. He isn't even alluding to that. We know you love your bear posts, but do better. $CLOV

@TheBeckford 3-5 years if they survive. Vivek just said a few years in his post a few days ago. This thing is going to drop like a rock after another crappy ER in May.

Yeah and they had a hell of a hard landing exiting ACO Reach a few years ago... but since then, financials have been improving YOY and are now breaching GAAP profitability. Why do you bother putting the ticker in your profile? How does feeding into incessant negativity help?

@Impervious38 @CloverHealth @chamath Company is 12 years old, with 600 employees...

The $CLOV ticker is going to come across a lot of people's feeds in the next year+ and most will instantly scroll by because they associate @CloverHealth with: 1. @chamath 2. "Failed" SPAC 3. Hindenburg Report 4. Bankruptcy 5. Shrinking revenue But all of those associations are from the past and hold zero relevance to the company today. If those people would take the time to dig in today, they would find: 1. FY2026 forecasting first full year of GAAP profitability 2. Clover MA plan has had the #1 HEDIS scores in the country two years in a row 3. @counterparthlth rapidly hiring post sales roles, many concentrated in the southern Gulf Region of the US 4. Kevin Holub, CPO at Counterpart, presented last week at HIMSS26 alongside Amy Gleason (CMS and DOGE) showcasing TEFCA compliant real-time interoperability 5. Clover subtly changed financial reporting starting in 2026 to focus on "Consolidated Gross Profit" instead of simply Insurance Revenue or BER @VivekGaripalli has been posting on X consistently for the past year, telling the public that Clover Health is the most important AI company in Healthcare and hinting that the re-rating is coming. The masses that have written off Clover will have a lot of catching up to do once they realize that the old narrative simply does not fit the current trajectory of the business.

Yes, anything over $0 is GAAP profitability, technically... I believe they are being cautious with their initial view, largely in part to the massive year 1 cohort. My expectation is that they will raise consistently through the year as they better understand the economics of that group.

@Impervious38 @CloverHealth @chamath You call 0-20 mln guidance profitability? 😅

@DiaTSLAPLTR Agreed! It feels like they might be going after the middle market right now as well, instead of only focusing on Enterprise whales. I wouldn't be surprised if all the hiring in the Gulf Region includes onboarding of various PCP Networks, physician-led ACOs and MSOs.

Fair point — and honestly one I should have emphasized more. You're right. With Kno2 handling the TEFCA/network routing layer as a federally designated QHIN, Counterpart doesn't have to rebuild connectivity infrastructure for each new payer client. That's a pre-built highway — Counterpart just builds the on ramp. It meaningfully reduces integration lift and shortens time-to-value for prospective buyers. Good catch. My only caveat: enterprise healthcare sales cycles are still long regardless of technical simplicity. But you're correct that the Kno2 partnership makes the "we can get you live fast" pitch materially more credible. Appreciate the pushback. 🤝

🧵 $CLOV: CMS Selected Clover to Demo on the HIMSS26 Mainstage. Here's My Honest Take — What It Means and What It Doesn't. Following my earnings deep dive and Counterpart breakdown, here's the latest. 1- WHAT HAPPENED At HIMSS26 (largest health IT conference, 25K+ attendees), CMS didn't just let Clover demo at a booth. They selected Clover for the official CMS Health Tech Ecosystem mainstage session. Kevin Holub (CPO, Counterpart Health) joined Amy Gleason — the CMS Strategic Advisor personally leading the 700-organization Health Tech Ecosystem initiative — to demo the workflow live. The full stack shown on stage: _ Fasten Health (patient app) initiates the request - Kno2 (federally designated QHIN) routes it - Counterpart Health enables the exchange - Clover responds as the payer with structured data Real-time. Production. On CMS's own stage. 2- WHY IT MATTERS CMS had 700+ organizations pledged. They picked Clover — a company most of Wall Street barely covers — to showcase what "pledge to production" looks like. Amy Gleason stated the goal is tangible results live by March 31. Clover was ready. Most weren't. CMS needed to point to someone and say "this is what done looks like." But let's be clear: this is a tech demo, not a contract. Not a revenue event. Not a CMS endorsement of the stock. 3- THE FAIR ASSESSMENT - What's genuinely meaningful: CMS credibility is real currency in Medicare Advantage. Being the payer CMS selects for their flagship demo — next to their strategic advisor on a national stage — isn't something money can buy. Counterpart's B2B pitch just got its best asset. When Kevin Holub tells other payers "we can get you compliant — here's the CMS demo," that's a different conversation than a product deck. The regulatory tailwind is accelerating. At HIMSS, CMS Administrator Dr. Oz pushed agentic AI for Medicare beneficiaries. ASTP/ONC confirmed information blocking enforcement with penalties up to $1M per violation. Interoperability mandates are intensifying, not slowing. - What's being overhyped: 2026 financials don't change. Zero. The $2.87B revenue, $0-$20M GAAP profit guidance — all unchanged. Counterpart contributes nothing material to 2026 per management's own words. A demo is not a customer. Counterpart has zero external payer contracts. Enterprise healthcare sales cycles are 6-18 months. Revenue impact is 2027-2028 at earliest. Competition isn't standing still. UnitedHealth, Humana, Aetna, Elevance all pledged too. They have 10-100x Clover's resources. First-mover matters but isn't permanent. The stock hasn't re-rated. CLOV popped 8% on the March 4 news, gave most back. Trading ~$2, roughly 50% below 52-week high. The market is in "show me" mode. 4- BOTTOM LINE This is a company building something real with genuine CMS validation. But the stock reflects a "show me" story. The mainstage demo is an important "showing" moment. It just isn't the "shown" moment yet. That comes when Counterpart signs its first external payer and reports revenue. Thesis: incrementally stronger. Timeline to value realization: unchanged. Not financial advice. DYOR. @CloverHealth @counterparthlth $CLOV

@AlbertAlan I'll do you one better... it's not that CMS chose $CLOV instead of $UNH, $HUM or $CVS - it's that the legacy dinosaurs of industry literally couldn't meet the requirements to demo true interoperability in real-time.

$CLOV The federal government chose Clover, not UnitedHealth, not Humana, not Aetna. CMS literally put them on stage at HIMSS 2026 as the model for the entire industry.