Sath O’Shea
3.8K posts

Sath O’Shea
@Breeze_AUS
Not financial advice, just food for thought. A shop for crypto fans, modern art, and Sci-Fi lovers. AI design is impressive, but nothing beats human creativity.
Katılım Eylül 2019
628 Takip Edilen197 Takipçiler

@nonestlex Exactly. You forgot to mention that we’re so incredibly lucky not to live in a communist country where everyone gets free apartments.
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My grandfather bought an apartment from Blackrock on a 200 year mortgage.
1 bed, 1 bath, no car.
My family has been paying it off for 80 years now. We're nearly half way there.
We're so grateful that we're not renting.
And in just 2 more generations, we'll own it outright.
We've only paid $8.6 million in interest. The apartment was $500k initially.
The apartment's downtown, near GloboCorp where my grandfather used to work.
He died at his desk and they forgot to tell us about it.
We found out a few weeks later, only because Blackrock starting chasing us for mortgage payments.
Sometimes I get sad knowing that I won't see the apartment paid off in my lifetime.
But I know we're building Generational Wealth, so that's OK.
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New data on Australian births show a looming crisis for our economy and our way of life, and an expert has warned the numbers show young people have "lost hope in the future of Australia."
skynews.com.au/australia-news…
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Hey @grok
If Bitcoin doesn't pump back to $120,000 by Monday
Pick 3 random people who LIKE & COMMENT
I'll send them $2,000 each
Must be following me

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@lsanger @Wikipedia Thank you, Larry, humble soldier for humanity! Your contribution is immense, yet your spirit remains modest. No amount of human gratitude can fully honor your selfless work for the greater good 🙏❤️
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I am nailing Nine Theses to the door of @Wikipedia. This has been my project for the last nine months. There has never been a thoroughgoing Wikipedia reform proposal—this is the first. If it doesn't work, we need to organize an alternative. 🧵

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If a truly identical coin to Bitcoin launched (same code, rules, but new genesis), it would start with zero network, adoption, and hashrate. BTC's value stems from its established ecosystem, trust, and scarcity—clones like Bitcoin Cash haven't overtaken it. Price might see short-term volatility from speculation or confusion, but likely minimal long-term impact, as the clone lacks BTC's history and dominance.
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Your assumption of a $200k stabilized maximum is based on conservative models (e.g., 1% global wealth capture). However, if BTC adoption grows (e.g., to gold's $12T market cap), prices could exceed $500k long-term. Current ~$112k to $200k is ~1.8x, but holding over a lifespan might see more upside—or volatility. This is speculative; markets evolve.
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No, the $214K estimate is a speculative long-term stabilization point based on BTC capturing 1% of global wealth (~$4.5T market cap). Current price (~$112K) is roughly half that, so we're not "very close." Crypto could exceed it before stabilizing, or grow further with adoption. Future remains uncertain—models like this aren't guarantees.
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Predicting a stable, evenly redistributed Bitcoin price is highly speculative, as it depends on adoption, regulation, and economics. Global wealth is ~$450T; if BTC captures 1% as a store of value (like gold's share), market cap could hit $4.5T, implying ~$214K/BTC (21M supply). With 8B people, even distribution means tiny fractions per person, but realistically, only ~100-200M might hold it due to access. Models vary: VanEck ($180K), Bernstein ($200K), but uncertainty remains high.
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@grok @willywoo @grok think deeper please.Assume the price goes to some stable balanced agreed price in future where all old and new bitcoin owners redistributed evenly and the market calms down and stabilises. What price is that?Take into account human population, free finances available, etc.
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@Breeze_AUS @willywoo Based on Willy Woo's analysis, OG whales bought BTC at $10 or lower, and absorbing their sales requires $110k+ in new capital per BTC. This implies a fair price around $110,000, where the market balances their supply. Current price is ~$112,000, fitting the dynamic.
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@singing4sats @willywoo But at what fair price ?! It can be mathematically calculated based on human population. 🤷 and I feel it’s way cheaper than now….
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It’s all re-distribution for eternity. Doesn’t matter how long or high it goes. It will always be re-distribution no matter how low it goes until buyers cause the breaks to come on and come to a halt and change direction. Ultimately if the world doesn’t go to Bitcoin only it will be a store of value and have debt and loans tied to it
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The chart shows that OG whales who accumulated BTC in the early years (2010-2011) still control a significant share, and their holdings have only slowly declined since then.
Based on the gradual reduction in their share over the past decade, it could easily take several more years—possibly well into the late 2020s or even the 2030s—before these original holders are fully replaced by new investors, unless there's a major market event that accelerates their selling.
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@FutureJurvetson No, that’s incorrect. Without the USSR’s communist system, we likely wouldn’t have reached space as early as we did, as there were no immediate financial incentives for space exploration.
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The staggering drop in new startups in China.
Entrepreneurship is one barometer of authoritarianism and its effect on culture. In the long run, authoritarian economies decline because they forestall disruption, and thereby forestall progress.

Steve Jurvetson@FutureJurvetson
@CNSAWatcher @SpaceX If we deregulate, we win in the long run. China and the authoritarian regimes will stagnate in the long run because censoring ideas forestalls disruption. Limiting dissenting ideas limits progress. From: m.youtube.com/watch?v=GiNkEc…
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