Wes Breton

@TicTocTick Buy the first hike. Sell the first rate cut that comes afterwards.

Once the bear 🐻 takes hold , we are talking about 18 months to 20 months of solid “sell the fucking rally” regime .. Don’t assume it’s gonna be over in 6-7 weeks

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf If population was booming nationwide I’d be inclined to think it could keep going but it’s not. You have a blue state to red state migration driving prices in certain mkts but they are building like mad in these places. Supply will catch up It just takes time. I’m wrong a lot tho

The mortgage payment on the median house in the US went from: - $1400 in Jan-21 to - $2000 in Jan-22 The median US monthly earnings went from: - $3900 in Jan-21 to - $4030 in Jan-22 At this rate, how many people will be able to afford their mortgages if prices don't decrease?

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf Anecdotally, I’m in UT right now and there is construction EVERYWHERE. New development after new development all being priced on comps in a tight mkt. Mkt will be less tight when all this stuff delivers. High prices cure high prices as it encourages supply to come on line.

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf You have to build them before they become supply. That’s what we are doing now. 15% price reduction in some markets would be only rolling prices back a year or so. Let’s revisit in 12 months. My guess is that the narrative around housing could be entirely different.

@simon_ree Gold $5k

Things that would make #fintwit happy, short of the world actually ending 1. YC inverting bigly 2. ES settling at -$37.63 3. Jim Cramer getting the boot 4. ARKK losing all AUM and shutting down What else?

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf Agree much of it is multi-family but we are gearing up for a population boom that isn’t happening.

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf I don’t think we get a 2008 like 40% collapse. I just think prices stall and maybe correct 10-15%. Housing demand has been driven by a number of things but low rates and lack of supply are big factors and those are likely changing.

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf You can’t buy garage doors, windows, appliances, etc because they are building like mad. The supply is coming. RE is slow moving. In 12-24 months the narrative will be completely different.

@bobschmidt22 @KBurns_1 @MacroAlf Well… you have to extrapolate record permits leading to future supply within 12-24 months.

@CordovaTrades Dippies pulling the ripcord

I've seen so much 'I wouldn't want to hold long over the 3 day weekend' but guess what... shorts don't want to hold positions either. Which do you think there are more of right now? 🤔

@agtrader Agree. Mkt closes green on surprise hike.

call me crazy.. but if the fed moved .50 right now, the mkt would find relief.

@SullyCNBC They go after the kids because they know they are less likely to stand up for themselves.

Saw a teenager get snapped at walking through Newark Airport tonight for having his mask under his nose. Literally 10 feet away 40 unmasked adults were crammed at a bar laughing it up over drinks. We do realize the kids know what's going on, right?

@CheddarFlow Pelosi back for more

$GOOGL $1.5M call block hitting the 3/11 contract 2800 strike. Opening position

@DiMartinoBooth @federalreserve Depends how fast we get there

Do you think @federalreserve would let $SPX fall to 3700 (Hint & request: incorporate political pressure to staunch inflation in a Midterm election year…up to a point…into your calculus before blasting off an indignant instinctive reply…please.)

@MacroTactical Overdue for a bounce but Oil has other plans.

@BretonWes usually on those rips you see the offers get pulled, but this time around market was chewing through 300-500s on the stack. they weren't even icebergs just an interesting dynamic

just thinking about positioning in rates. look at what headlines are doing. interesting offer stacks in UB on that ramp if fed comes out as nowhere near as hawkish as anticipated just 3x the orderbook dynamics on what you're seeing on these headlines