B@rney Trouble

Remember: Jan - March of 2022, bitcoin did a ~46% bear market rally. The 20k bounce is nice but for context that is ~33% thus far. 46% would take us to ~88k. Also, day 36 today. Heavily right trans for bitcoin would be 45-50.

Luke has been saying this trend would end since 2018. And during that time the global capital the US has sucked into its capital markets has...doubled.

Did you FOMO in silver at the wrong time OR were observant of the EVIDENCE? It could take a while before we see ANOTHER lower risk, higher reward entry point of IMPORTANCE.

Gold & Silver: Too many commentators failing to acknowledge the evidence in recent weeks 👇

Can the Fed yield control the long end? If so, they better hurry up before this thing escapes higher!

In January 2026, a judge at Birmingham Crown Court in the United Kingdom imposed a temporary reporting restriction to prevent the jury from being informed that a Pakistani national accused of raping a teenage girl in a park was an asylum seeker Why?

Stock markets do appear to be entering a 'melt-up' phase here...

While other factors do influence price on a smaller time scale, it's the dollar that drives bull and bear markets in gold. The dollar entered a long term secular bear market in 2022 and you can see how the excess liquidity has been leaking into and driving the bull market in metals. These secular trends tend to last multiple years and now that metals appear to have re entered the wall of worry phase it looks like the bull should run to at least 2028-30.

He's not having a great week, is he?

I have been warning about and calling this a mid-cycle correction for years now. Finally, everyone can see it. The low was not the bottom of an extended typical 4-year cycle. It was a mid-cycle correction following the first of two major peaks. Second peak and true cycle top sometime in 2027.

There is a pretty embarrassing video going around showing Gary Stevenson aka "Gary's Economics" misunderstanding how basic taxation works. The truth is he is a product of elite universities that teach a broken form of economics. It is effectively pseudoscience designed to transfer wealth from the poor and middle classes to the rich through monetary debasement, which you experience as inflation. Rather than tackling the root cause of inequality, which is broken money, Gary pushes for higher taxation and backs a communist-lite party in the Greens. Academia and the intelligentsia are captured by this pseudoscience and have led Britain to economic misery. Economic degrees from elite universities should be rendered defunct. Ask me how I know.

That is a very important red breakout, for many reasons. One reason being that it kicked off the 2nd inflationary wave. Been saying for years that we will see at least $250-$300 oil during this commodities bull market. And in the linked post below I raised that target to $369. Oil was at $58.40 in the linked post below. Now at $103. The linked post nailed the low. The 4.5 year red bullish falling wedge is probably a halfway pattern, with a price target of $369 (green lines measured move). Since I called the commodities bear market low almost 6 years ago, I have been saying that this commodities bull market is the best opportunity you will ever have in life to get out of the rat race. When that 2nd pink head & shoulders pattern broke down just before the Covid-crash, I understood that the huge blue head & shoulders pattern was probably going to play out too. And it very much did. That is the kind of guidance that makes a difference. Following the right people is absolutely vital. #joinus graddhy.com #oott #oilprice Check that breakout above red line; a huge gap up above it, then gapfill, then take off. That is stylish price action. And yes, if going to breakout, why not do it in style.

A little econ 101 for the silly socialists. The natural state of the economy is deflationary. As humans we innovate, we become more productive so everything ‘should’ get cheaper to produce. Well it does, everything you see getting more expensive is getting cheaper to produce but the inflation of the money supply is causing prices to go up. So what is the mechanics of this, the two primary ones are: 1. Governments keep running deficits because democracy rewards them for lying and spending. 2. Banks create money out of thin air through lending and the people closest to credit get it first. Asset prices pump and wealth shifts toward those who already have assets. When things go up in price, say energy due to war, this is not inflation. Some politicians say it is, but they are lying or stupid. That’s a supply shock. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is good for the state, it wipes away their debt. The mechanics of inflation are good for the rich, because they have assets. Inflation is terrible for everyone else - products get smaller, ingredients get worse and prices go up. It’s how companies manage inflation. Inflation forces dependency policies so people can scrape by - minimum wage, energy caps, renters rights. They are demanded by the public. But this the slow hollowing out of society, it is what breaks everything which is good. It puts pressure on a system which takes us from high trust to low trust. Why do I make fun of @zackpolanski and the socialists? Because they will run this experiment on crack. The Green’s model as far as I can see is: - Attack the productive class - Reward the unproductive class The problem with this is the rich will leave, the ambitious may leave and they will face the same question as both Labour and the Conservatives which is how do we pay for this? They will either have to raise taxes or borrow (print) more money, which accelerates the problem. So we will get lower productivity, higher taxes, more borrowing and guess what, more inflation. This is the exact mechanics which have destroyed every socialist state. I get it, socialism sounds warm and fuzzy - nobody should go without, free stuff for everyone. But the end result is poverty and misery, as it has been every single time. If you want jobs, good, medicine then you need a growing and prosperous economy which means unshackling the entrepreneurs. There is no other option on the table. It is the only thing that has ever worked. I haven’t voted in three elections. I will only vote if someone comes with a real economic plan which means a chainsaw to the state and driving growth.

Incentives matter. Gary admitted on Pier’s Morgan that he made around £2m as a trader. This may seem like a lot of money, but it’s not retirement money on the lifestyle he will maintain. Gary needs to sell books and awareness. He’s spotted a vulnerability with a particular group so he sells emotional based economics. It isn’t actually economics, it’s whinging and victim culture. His answers come down to socialism, but socialism harms the people he claims to want to help. Gary is wrong. Don’t be a Gary.

LOL. I told you. Gary Stevenson is a propagandist for the Green-Red Alliance, same as Zoe Gardner, Faiza Shaheen and Grace Blakeley. They all went through the Soros-funded school "The New Economy Organisers Network". Chosen because they were young and were deemed as good advertisements to the target vote. Meant to look "organic"; like they naturally came to the conclusion that wealth taxes and GREEN POLICIES are the answer. This movement is so unbelievably ARTIFICIAL! My video from October last year: "Gary Stevenson is part of a propaganda network for international socialism" youtube.com/watch?v=B_Rgx4…

What happens when a vibes economist meets the real thing.

The state pension is not a random government favour, it’s the back end of a 35–40 year compulsory “contract” where people are forced to hand over National Insurance on the clear promise of a basic pension at the end. Politicians and think tanks helped design an unfunded, pay‑as‑you‑go system where today’s workers pay today’s pensioners, then have the gall to call it “unsustainable” as if the public dreamt it up. If a private firm sold you a retirement product on fixed terms, took your money for four decades, then announced at 66 that you “didn’t really need it” and would henceforth be means‑tested or frozen, they would be in court for mis‑selling and fraud. The crisis here is not pensioners “leeching off the young”, it’s a political class that built a Ponzi‑style NI system, diverted the proceeds for other spending, and now wants to default on the people who kept their side of the bargain. You do not blame the victims of a defective product for believing the brochure; you go after the people who wrote it.

Rolling Stone moved Eric Clapton down from the top 10 of greatest guitar players of all time to 35 because he admitted to being Covid "vaccine" injured & refused to discriminate on entry to his concerts based on "vaccine" status. They even admit the reasoning in the explanation!

BREAKING: Red Prince Viscount Stansgate, brother of Labour front-Bencher Hilary Benn and son of Tony Benn, to remain in the House of Lords - as Keir Starmer grants him a further peerage to avoid his own ‘crackdown on hereditary peers’ (via @Telegraph) telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/…

Warren Buffett: $400B cash hoard. 30% of his fund. He was also 30% cash in 2005, before the last recession. He can smell a recession arriving. 🧐