Lo Cavaller
40.3K posts

Lo Cavaller
@Buffett_esp
Azote anti-woke & part time speculator

Fidelity urges Senate passage of the CLARITY Act. The time is now for clear rules of the road that are essential to strengthening investor confidence, providing certainty for market participants, and reinforcing U.S. leadership in global digital asset markets.


Morgan Stanley: $CIFR bull target increase due to behind-the-meter potential upside: Let’s dive into the math. I highly recommend understanding this as investors in BTM. Assumptions: 1. Cost/watt powered shell: $11 • This is the fully loaded development cost to deliver a powered shell measured on IT watts (includes land, cooling, construction, interconnection work, etc). 2. Lease margin: 85% • After operating expenses, the portion of the lease revenue that drops to EBITDA/lease margin. High figure in this model due to the assumption that Cipher acts as powered-shell land lord vs full colo provider. 3. Lease yield on cost: 17% • Annualized margin ÷ project cost. Basically the unleavened cash return once the project reaches stabilization. 4. Revenue/Watt: $2.20 • Annual revenue per IT watt All of these assumptions are consistent with each other: at the 85% lease margin, the $2.20 per watt produces the 17% yield on $11 cost. 17% x $11 = $1.87. $1.87 ÷ .85 = $2.20. PUE sits at 1.3 and stands for Power Usage Effectiveness. Essentially this is gross power divided by critical IT. 1.3 is a considered modern for hyperscale standards. This number would result for 1 MW of critical IT available for every 1.3 MW of gross. EBITDA multiple on margin 15x Base case (CIFR grid capacity): 270 MW gross = 208 MW critical IT Annual revenue: 208m watts x 2.2 = $457.6M Annual lease margin: $457.6 x 0.85=$388M Gross EV: $388 x 15 =$5.82B Development cost: 208m watts x 11 = $2.28B Net value creation: $5.82B - $2.28B = $3.54B Net value creation per watt: $3.54B ÷ 208m = $17.05 As a % of market cap: 44% (at the time of the note ciphers mkt cap was around ~$8B) BTM Case: The model uses the $17.05/watt to the additional capacity that BTM would generate and the same PUE or 1.3 (gross ÷ critical IT) BTM gross added: 300 MW Critical IT: 231 MW Additional value creation: 213m x $17.05 = $3.95B Plus base value creation: $3.95B + $3.54B = $7.476B which totals a value creation of 96% of Ciphers market cap at the time Do the same math for: 500 MW BTM: $10.099B (126% mkt cap) 1,000 MW BTM: $16.657B (208% mkt cap) Bottom line? The future is bright for behind-the-meter generation.

















