Bissmark

$RKLB (2W) — Bad day, but still moving inside the lines, and between $65 and $56 would be a solid spot to add exposure after the sell-off. As it creates an entry that we can guard with a stop that will either turn this into a small loss or a big win. How big of a winner can this be? Well, just to challenge resistance above again, we would need to reach $151. > a lot more to gain if we break above it, but first things first. Get back in the game.

On July 22nd, Mirae Asset Global Investments, a major South Korean asset manager disclosed several NEW positions in space companies: Here’s what they own as of June 30th: $SPCX 26,056,048 shares $RDW 11,851,668 shares $LUNR 6,822,991 shares $PL 2,682,192 shares $RKLB 1,850,297 shares $FLY 1,053,718 shares $ASTS 939,123 shares $VOYG 872,043 shares $KRMN 728,238 shares $SATS 727,079 shares Probably nothing.

$RKLB Post-Iridium Acquisition: SELL Rating, probability weighted 1-years PT $40 🧵(1/) On June 29, Rocket Lab agreed to pay ~$8.0B for Iridium. That is 16x OEBITDA, half of it cash funded by a $3.6B 364-day bridge, for an ok-run narrowband satcom annuity whose best structural days are behind it. I spent the week pulling this apart and came out uncomfortable with both camps. I originally pushed back on the 'vintage 2010 tech' framing by pointing at the 2017-2019 launch dates. Then I pulled the program history and had to eat that one. The design froze at CDR in October 2013 on ~2011-era silicon, and the L-band air interface underneath is a ~1990 Motorola waveform preserved for backward compatibility. Calling it vintage 2010 was generous. What keeps this from being a kill shot is that the asset still throws off $296M of FCF against contracts (EMSS, GMDSS, Aireon) that Starlink cannot legally or technically service yet. However, 2028 is when the revenue decline accelerates when EMSS is up for renewal and competitors likely take a stake. The moat is coverage, spectrum, and certification rather than technology. The bulls have the bigger problem: 10.5 MHz of non-cellular L-band is an IoT and safety niche with a hard physics ceiling, not a direct-to-device option, and the constellation carrying it needs a $3-4 billion replacement starting right when the acquisition debt matures. My model cannot get within hailing distance of $90 under any multiple set I could defend in a room. Probability-weighted I get ~$41. What sits above that is narrative, and narrative plus leverage plus a visible dilution overhang has a bad track record.

Caesar Capital increased its position in Rocket Lab $RKLB today at $68.69 per share 🏛️ New average cost basis: $47.24 (up from $45.66)

Say cheese, Earth and Moon! 📸 One of our two Mars-bound ESCAPADE spacecraft captured Earth and the Moon from 363,250 miles (584,600 kilometers) away. In visible light, both worlds appear as slim crescents. But switch to thermal infrared and it’s a different picture 👇 🧵1/2