John Butler

International monetary regime change doesn't happen overnight, but the push to introduce #CBDCs just might catalyse a general global remonetisation of #gold. Sound far-fetched? Perhaps not. Listen here for the full story: youtube.com/watch?v=xhnOJ_…

Encouraging that #Xi mentions Thucydidies to #Trump regarding how best to balance power and influence in the modern world, maintain peace and promote prosperity. Indeed, as I've written before, the US must learn from the fatal mistakes of imperial Athens: theamphorareport.substack.com/p/hubris-and-n…

The remonetization of gold... when? 😁 Feat. @ButlerGoldRevo.

@izakaminska This overlaps a little with my plan for an independent Scotland that would be financially viable. That said, given the Scots' dire financial position, my plan is more radical, yet could be more effective: cobdencentre.org/2014/09/from-b…

My totally outrageous and not at all serious 10 point plan to save Britain. 1) The entire Labour government does the honourable thing and resigns on the basis that remaining in office merely guarantees it will preside over the eventual loss of economic control. 2) Officially acknowledges that, without IMF backing and access to dollar liquidity, Britain’s current economic model is structurally unsustainable — particularly for a country whose comparative advantage is supposedly financial credibility. 3) Establishes a government of national unity in which day-to-day economic management is handed to industry-backed technocrats and entrepreneurs under a four-year “rebuild or bust” mandate. 4) Pegs sterling to the dollar in order to restore monetary credibility and halt the slow transformation of Britain into an upper-middle-income crisis economy. [Alternatively removes all barriers to USD stablecoins and allows explicit dollarisation that way.] 5) Slashes corporate taxes, accelerates planning reform, and dismantles layers of administrative and regulatory drag in an emergency bid to revive productivity and private investment. 6) Restricts full NHS eligibility to citizens and settled residents, with everyone else moved onto a contributory or fee-based system outside emergency treatment. 7) Realigns British industrial, defence and trade policy explicitly around American strategic priorities in exchange for preferential access to US capital, markets and dollar funding. 8) Offers Washington broad regulatory and geopolitical alignment — including on technology, energy and security policy — in return for expedited customs access and a de facto economic stabilisation umbrella. 9) Reopens the North Sea at full scale, removes remaining extraction constraints, and adopts the official position that “drill, baby, drill” is now a matter of national solvency. 10) Cancels the Diego Garcia deal immediately on the grounds that no country negotiating for IMF support should be voluntarily reducing its strategic collateral. The other option is all of the above but joins the eurosystem or China instead.

@izakaminska It's all in my book!

I know I am probably 65+ years late to this, but I think I under appreciated how long France has been banging on about strategic autonomy for. And to what degree De Gaulle used negotiations around “force de frappe” as a mechanism to extract a lot of let’s say, favorable terms, for France in the emerging global order. I also under appreciated that from the moment France begins dabbling with enrichment and creating its own nuclear deterrent, it becomes increasingly confident in implementing its dirigiste and industrial policy at home, and all the more confrontational with America, in terms of forcing dollar conversion for gold. I also didn’t realise there was a well circulated claim that the Nixon shock was sparked by Pompidou sending some sort of warship to New York harbour to pick up the gold in August 1971. But also that 1971 was the year that France’s nuclear submarines finally became operational 🤪🏴‍☠️

The Falklands War was fought 44 years ago. Few knew at the time that mineral rights were pertinent to the dispute over the islands' sovereignty. They remain so. theamphorareport.substack.com/p/britains-sou…

For more on the above, pls refer to my book on the #gold remonetisation topic, The Golden Revolution, Revisited: amazon.com/Golden-Revolut…

The demand function for #gold is shifting. It is no longer an idle asset on central bank balance sheets but one being mobilised to settle the historically large economic imbalances that have built up in the past half-century. By my calcs the imbalance-clearing price is now $40k+

Another month, another central bank annouces it is repatriating some of its #gold from the US or UK. Why? Gold is in process of being remonetised in order to resolve historically large economic imbalances. In such historically disruptive circumstances this is entirely reasonable.

@izakaminska Whether they're fully conscious of it or not, central banks are preparing for some form of gold remonitisation to resolve historically large economic imbalances. While that need not be disruptive, history suggests it will be. Repatriating gold is thus a sensible preparatory step.

New Project Syndicate piece from Barry Eichengreen on why some cbanks are turning to gold. "A further indication of what central banks are thinking is that the share of official gold reserves held in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has fallen from 30% of the global total in 2005 to barely 20% today. Policymakers in other countries are questioning whether the US is a reliable ally and whether the New York Fed is a reliable custodian. Recent reports link popular pressure for gold repatriation in Germany and Italy to political tensions with the United States and threats to the Fed’s independence. Who would have thought?" project-syndicate.org/commentary/ris…

@Noirchick1 True Romance

What film is on everyone's "best list"... that you just cannot stand?

"The dollar can be weaponized." — @ButlerGoldRevo

As I'm fond of saying: "Imbalances don't matter until they do. And once they do, nothing else does." So, how will the current set of global imbalances be resolved? I have an idea: theamphorareport.substack.com/p/cognitive-do…

@TheMichaelEvery @ctindale This tired, Keynesian nonsense has got to stop. Any serious discussion about how to reduce global imbalances must include some reference to gold, or it is simply not credible. The golden elephant in the room is right there staring at you.

@ctindale It’s almost like there is a need for joined-up, “What is GDP *for*?” economic statecraft rather than saying , “because markets…” 😉

Pettis’ point is that global imbalances are a system. One country’s surplus is another country’s deficit. So the fix cannot be “America borrows less” while China, Germany, Japan, or other surplus blocs keep suppressing domestic demand and exporting excess savings. 1. Surplus countries must raise domestic demand China’s surplus exists because domestic consumption is too weak relative to production. That is usually caused by households receiving too small a share of national income, while the state, firms, banks, and local governments control too much of the surplus. So China needs to shift income toward households through higher wages, stronger social safety nets, less reliance on property and infrastructure investment, and less financial repression. In plain terms: Chinese workers need to consume more of what China produces. Without that, China keeps exporting its imbalance abroad. 2. Deficit countries must stop absorbing the surplus passively The US cannot keep acting as the global balance sheet that receives everyone else’s excess savings. That means the US has to reduce the attractiveness of pure financial inflows that inflate assets without building productive capacity. Capital entering the country should be pushed toward productive investment, infrastructure, industrial capacity, energy systems, advanced manufacturing, and tradable sectors. Fiscal tightening without industrial rebuilding just crushes demand while leaving the productive deficit intact. 3. Capital inflows need to be filtered The issue is what kind of capital enters and what it does once it arrives. Capital that builds factories, ports, energy systems, mineral processing, chip capacity, rail, grid infrastructure, and productive supply chains helps resolve the imbalance. Capital that buys existing assets, Treasuries, housing, equities, private credit, and speculative claims deepens the trap. So the resolution is a capital-allocation regime that favours productive capital over balance-sheet inflation. 4. Trade adjustment must rebuild production, not just punish imports Tariffs alone are too blunt. Sure they are leverage but they don’t rebuild domestic adjustment you need to combine tariffs or import discipline with: domestic procurement rules, industrial credit, energy cost reduction, skills formation, tax incentives for tradable investment, supply-chain mapping, and public-private coordination around strategic sectors. Which we are seeing Otherwise tariffs just raise prices while the industrial base remains too weak to respond. 5. The monetary framework must stop privileging asset stability over productive capacity If the central bank and financial system keep rewarding asset protection, low consumer inflation, cheap imports, and liquidity expansion, while ignoring industrial complexity, external dependency, and productive investment, then the imbalance recreates itself. So the deeper resolution is institutional: monetary and financial policy must measure whether credit is expanding productive capacity or merely inflating claims on existing assets. China has to consume more. America has to build more. Capital has to be redirected from claims on production into production itself. This is politically difficult because both sides have powerful domestic winners from the current system. In China, the winners are exporters, state firms, local governments, banks, and investment-heavy sectors. In the US, the winners are finance, asset owners, import-dependent corporations, consumers of cheap goods, and the Treasury market itself. The FOMC in its bid to financialize everything has selected for state vassalage . Instead of dying of shame Powell is so clueless about what he’s led the Republic into he wants to stay on So the imbalance resolves either through deliberate restructuring or through crisis: protectionism, defaults, currency stress, debt deflation, unemployment, and political rupture. My guess is war.

Macro Podcast Palooza (April 2026 Edition) I don’t hear/see it all, but I surely listen to a ton of podcasts (esp. this past month)... A list of some insightful podcast… See below...👇 'It's Over': Strategist Reveals youtube.com/watch?v=VVvYpi… Mike McGlone on with David Lin @mikemcglone11 & @davidlin_TV You're Watching the Wrong Housing Data youtube.com/watch?v=xJpSph… By Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch America's job market is collapsing youtube.com/watch?v=aUM4kv… By Max Fisher @Max_Fisher 'Flirting With a Liquidity Crisis' - Non-Banks Now Too Big to Fail youtube.com/watch?v=Zg5e5e… Danielle DiMartino Booth on with Julia La Roche @dimartinobooth & @julialaroche Banking System's Private Credit Exposure Is Large, Notes Bank Analyst Chris Whalen youtube.com/watch?v=x4PChC… Richard Christopher Whalen on with Jack Farley @rcwhalen & @JackFarley96 The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 121 - David Leiter FULL EPISODE podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… open.spotify.com/episode/2eKRV9… grant-williams.com/grant-williams… David Leiter on with Grant Williams @davidleiter & @ttmygh John Butler: Why Central Banks Are Preparing for a Gold System youtube.com/watch?v=utXAbV… John Butler on Macroscopic Podcast @ButlerGoldRevo "At the Sound of the Guns, Buy": Spider Marks & Peter Tchir on Iran, China & Critical Metals youtube.com/watch?v=yfx9sJ… Spider Marks & Peter Tchir on with @wealthion @AcadSecurities & @TFMkts

The world's greatest savers--the Japanese--are also the greatest potential dis-savers. Should that change occur it would rock financial markets in ways not seen for decades. theamphorareport.substack.com/p/has-the-othe…

And when I worked as an MD at Lehman, everyone thought I was nuts to predict a housing crash and the possible failure of the firm.

@goldseek So funny. When I worked as an MD at DB everyone thought I was nuts to predict the return of gold to the centre of the international monetary system. What a difference 20 years makes.

Gold as an anchor for a potential alternative future monetary system…

What many hoped would be a temporary conflict and closure of Hormuz is turning out to be anything but. A huge, stagflationary supply shock is on the way. theamphorareport.substack.com/p/the-stock-ma… youtube.com/watch?v=t1SWwz…

@SantiagoAuFund Agreed. This is why, many years ago, I began to look elsewhere. For every action, there is at least one reaction. But the equipment designed to measure actions isn't necessarily designed to capture reactions. Nash equilibria can be multidimentional, as this one might be.

@ButlerGoldRevo maybe so. but you know as well as I do that if the chart showed the opposite of what it shows every gold bug and crypto hornet would be retweeting it nonstop.

strange. very very strange.