Jamin Watson

52 posts

Jamin Watson

Jamin Watson

@BwatsTO

Katılım Şubat 2016
238 Takip Edilen12 Takipçiler
Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@michael_wiebe In Irrational Exuberance Robert Shiller says offhandedly that pretty consistently after big price run-ups supply advocacy groups arose and mitigated/reversed the trend in various regions over his data's timeframe, but I'd liked if he had mentioned specifics
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Michael Wiebe
Michael Wiebe@michael_wiebe·
What explains YIMBY success? Is it from correct ideas winning out, or from people suffering from high housing costs becoming a majority of voters? How much weight do you assign to ideas vs materialism?
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Stephen Gordon
Stephen Gordon@stephenfgordon·
Help! We're trying to move Worthwhile Canadian Initiative from Typepad (which is shutting down) to WordPress, but we're told that Wordpress has a maximum import size of 15 MB - our import file is 89 MB. Is there any way around this? (Please RT)
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@armedcyclist @TheStalwart @Noahpinion That is the point, how are you missing it. There were not enough lifeboats on the titanic, and it's dumb to count lifeboats far far away. But when it comes to housing you're counting houses far far away.
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@armedcyclist @TheStalwart @Noahpinion So you realize someone on the Titanic isn't well served by the numerous lifeboats on vessels/docks thousands of KMs away, yet suggest a vacant house in Flint MI is countable supply for someone trying to live in LA thousands of KMs away.
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Joe Diesel
Joe Diesel@armedcyclist·
@BwatsTO @TheStalwart @Noahpinion The RMS Titanic carried 20 lifeboats in total, but they were insufficient for the number of passengers and crew on board. The lifeboats were designed to hold 1,178 people, which was far fewer than the approximately 2,224 people on the ship. 🙄
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Joe Diesel
Joe Diesel@armedcyclist·
@BwatsTO @TheStalwart @Noahpinion If you make up a hypothetical where you can perfectly understand demand and exaggerate things beyond reality sure, but in the United States there are 147 million housing units and 128 million households
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@armedcyclist @TheStalwart @Noahpinion Where? 1000 families that want to live on an island, 100 houses, might get 96 households, 4 houses inbetween owners, and a high price set by 96th richest. With 800 houses, get 768 houses occupied, 32 between owners, much lower price. ~x% vacant usually frictions, not longterm S/D
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@TheStalwart @Noahpinion He's measuring the demand for lifeboats of the titanic by only counting the people that made it onto lifeboats.
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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
NASDAQ-100 FUTURES DOWN 5.4%
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@mattdbowes Sorry still confused: demand in Time0 causes homes built during T1 allowing that demand to move in and their income allocated to city, then this study says "there is demand shock (total income growth) in T1 so should find even more supply (correlated shock) in T1/2, but don't"
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Matt Bowes
Matt Bowes@mattdbowes·
@BwatsTO This is true, but the papers claim is that in that instance you’d expect to see places with more elastic supply experience a larger ramp up in home-building, hence why they use this as a dependent variable along with house prices.
Matt Bowes tweet media
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Matt Bowes
Matt Bowes@mattdbowes·
A recently published NBER paper aims to show that supply constraints do not explain variation in house prices or home building across US cities. Here’s a brief summary, and why I don’t think it detracts from the case for pursuing planning reforms to unlock housing supply 🧵1/
Matt Bowes tweet media
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@mattdbowes My confusion with the paper is it treating income growth as demand growth, when it's just as easily a revelation of supply capacity: People move to a region when it builds housing (labor market is larger region), and this paper is surprised the region builds similar next year?
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Millennial Moron
Millennial Moron@Mill_Moron·
For the past ~9 months I've been working on a video about the CPPIB and their active investment management strategy for the CPP, what it costs us, and how it's performed. Anyway, the video is super long but it's finally done. youtu.be/mcNIrBlciPc
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Taylor Ogan
Taylor Ogan@TaylorOgan·
BYD's Zhengzhou factory is already enormous, and it's getting even bigger. Here's Tesla's largest factory, for comparison. That blue line is 2 miles.
Taylor Ogan tweet media
tphuang@tphuang

This is BYD starting phase 5, 6, 7 & 8 out of its expansion in Zhengzhou at the same time. Built next to Zhengzhou land port. Just watch the number of construction & engineering vehicles + the raw size of this area. BYD's scale & ability to build up massive factories is quite mind blowing. The existing real estate is already larger than any Tesla Gigafactory & this expansion makes the existing plant look small. What will BYD be building here? Will it be hiring all the workers that get displaced from Foxconn factory nearby? What a company.

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Oliver Habryka
Oliver Habryka@ohabryka·
I compiled all the emails released as part of the Musk v. Altman lawsuit in chronological order (link in reply). IMO a really valuable read. Extremely consequential decisions made in these emails.
Oliver Habryka tweet media
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Twinworks
Twinworks@twinwrks·
🚀 We're excited to announce Twinworks—the tool for fast, realistic 3D renderings! Instantly update properties to match buyer vision & drive engagement. Visit and book a demo today! twinworks.ai #PropTech #RealEstate
Twinworks tweet mediaTwinworks tweet mediaTwinworks tweet media
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@LeoSpalteholz Schrodinger's condo: simultaneously 100% vacant while also 100% occupied by people that drive around during rush hour
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Jamin Watson
Jamin Watson@BwatsTO·
@TheCromenockle @MikePMoffatt Road networks are tricky. A system with capacity for 100 cars per hour might only accommodate 60 cars p/h when congested. Possible you add a lane for best-case capacity of 120 cars per hour, but get little capacity increase in reality if more cars again make it congested.
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Cromenoɔʞlǝ
Cromenoɔʞlǝ@TheCromenockle·
@MikePMoffatt “Induced demand” is not a serious concept. Where else do we justify not expanding supply of a positive good just because it would bring with it some increased amount of demand? Like imagine saying: no we can’t invest in our electrical grid because it will lead to more energy use!
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Christoph Breuer
Christoph Breuer@chribreuer·
@akarlin not many bloggers who actually publish successfull books. So circle of possible candidates is small. Maybe The last psychiatrist? Hanson? MacAskill?
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Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯@akarlin·
Gwern argues against publishing books on the basis that it can drive you into procrastination-depression cycle. I think lesson here isn't so much not to write books but to identify if/when they become a drag early, and cut losses. PS. Anyone know which blogger this refers to?
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 tweet media
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil

Gwern has a new post, and it's on why not to write a book. Books, it seems, are a huge productivity sink, so "Everyone may have a book inside them, but some should keep it inside them."

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Jens von Bergmann
Jens von Bergmann@vb_jens·
Not liking this framing. Saying shrinking household size is a "contributor to the housing affordability crisis" is essentially blaming housing problems on the increased lifespan of older people. (Plus it reverses causality, household formation is downstream of housing pressures.)
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Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion·
Just before waking up, I had a dream in which an unenthusiastic but determined British man was swinging his arms and singing a little song that went: "His name is Anthony/ He wears his pants and he --" But I never got to hear what else Anthony did, because then I woke up.
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Keşfet

@michael_wiebe @armedcyclist @TheStalwart @Noahpinion @mattdbowes @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13