Aaron Bouma #Militaryspecialist #ActuallyAutistic

THE RISING THREAT #Ukraine is facing a serious dilemma, with the Russians being able to launch at least 30 maybe 35 Iskander-M SRBMs Ukraine at any given time, the vulnerability of airspace has become clearer. #Russia has said to have tripled the production of these ballistic missiles in the last month. #2026 it’s going to be a tough year if Ukrainian forces are not prepped up with more ammunition for patriot missile systems. More #M901 #M902 #M903 launchers are great, but without the ammunition, CRI, MSE, for PAC-3 systems for dedicated ABM. I fear that many more Ukrainians will die in #Kyiv and other central areas. Right now the armed forces of Ukraine have about 10 batteries of patriot missile systems. There’s at least 500 km or 310 miles of area, that is under direct threat of this. That’s coming from Oleksandr Kovalenko on the Euromaidon Press. That’s the range of the Iskandar-M (SS-26 Stone) for those who don’t know. 4 per day, it is sad that they can produce. And that is likely to rise as Russia’s defence economy continues to ramp up development infrastructure for war production, as it has been doing over the last two years of this war or more. There are only two systems capable of shooting down short range ballistic missiles. 1. Patriot PAC-2, PAC-3. USA 2. SAMP-T FRANCE-ITALY It is said that 8 SAMP/T NG fire units are to be donated by France and Italy to Ukraine. (Wikipedia), but unknown if they are there or when they will arrive. The French have said to have 7 units in operation. Since #Russian forces have modified the flight profile of the Iskandar-M to help evade Patriot missiles, the SAMP-T has even been more successful at interception. The SAMP-T range is about 150km Max against air breathing targets, less but unknown publicly against Ballistic missiles. Aster Missiles travel at about Mach 4.5. Patriot missile battery range depends on missile but for air breathing targets it’s 160km give or take. For PAC-3 CRI range is 35km against Ballistic missiles. MSE missile range is 30-60km ~. GEM-T 100km similar range, but older. Are not as effective against ballistic missiles & are used against aircraft, cruise missiles, not as effective against ballistic missile threats, the dedicated PAC-3 MSE, or CRI and the SAMP-T are the main counters. Often times US forces with layer GEM-T for air defence & MSE for Ballistic Missile threats. We in the west, #Unitedstates, & #NATO allies need to step it up. Or see #Ukrainians face more horrendous attacks against its infrastructure & civilians targets like we are seeing which will get worse.

▶️ Not just PAC-3 MSE from 620/y to 2,000/y, but... ▶️ Talon (THAAD) from 98/y to 400/y ▶️ Precision Strike Missile from 400/y to 2,000/y ▶️ JASSM/LRASM from 1,100/y to 3,300/y These are the conversations LM is having with the Pentagon. Details @ArchivesDefense linked ⬇️

#KhargIsland #Iran #IranWar‌ #Ukraine twitter.com/i/spaces/1rGmq…

Hellfire is a good example of how economies of scale impacts unit price. FY2019-21 average unit price at ~3500 ordered by Army per year: $75k FY2023 unit price at 800 ordered by Army: $104k FY2026 unit price with only FMS orders: $160k Also a good example of why FMS & DCS are so important to the US defense industrial base. The Army met their inventory objective for Hellfire and stopped procurement, but given expenditures in Iran, if they decide they want to replace those missiles, the production line is still hot.

‼️Russia launched 948 assault drones at Ukraine over a 24-hour period. According to Ukraine’s Air Force Command, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 906 of them - that's a 95.6% interception rate.

🇺🇸🇳🇱 The Netherlands intends to sign another Direct Commercial Sale with Raytheon for a PATRIOT Fire Unit. They previously ordered one in January 2025, to replace donations made to Ukraine.

NEW: Russian forces launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in a prolonged strike series from the evening of March 23 to the evening of March 24 – the largest Russian strike series against Ukraine of the war thus far. More Key Takeaways: Russian forces struck a UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage site in Lviv City during the day on March 24. The Russian strikes on March 23 to 24 represent a significant inflection in Russian strike tactics that allow Russia to threaten more areas of Ukraine for longer periods of time and disproportionately affect civilian areas. Ukraine notably disrupted elements of the strike package by destroying ground-based Zirkon hypersonic missile launcher while it was moving into a firing position in Crimea on the night of March 23 to 24 – a difficult task that is a testament to Ukraine’s maturing operational planning and extended-range strike capabilities. Russia recently launched satellites as part of its efforts to develop a Russian analogue to Starlink. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian overnight March 22 to 23 strikes halted operations at a Russian oil port for exports. (1/2)

MORE | Hezbollah Political Council member Wafiq Safa said on March 23 that Hezbollah is preparing itself for a long war with Israel and noted that Israel should expect “surprises in the near future,” especially regarding one-way attack drones. Hezbollah is primarily relying on rockets but also increasingly using drones in its attacks against Israel. Hezbollah claimed 55 attacks targeting Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, as well as northern Israeli towns, between 3:00 PM ET on March 22 and 3:00 PM ET on March 23. Hezbollah has claimed to have conducted over 700 attacks against Israel since March 1, which surpasses the group’s total number of claimed attacks in October 2024, during the most intense month of fighting during the Fall 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

This is the absolute only man fit to lead Iran. He is the only leader the Iranian people actually trust. From the bazaars to the university campuses, his is the only name the streets are chanting. We did not wait for Western diplomats to pick our future for us. We wrote his name on the walls with the blood of 36,000 fallen heroes during the January uprising. Iranians surviving inside this occupation and the diaspora on the outside are entirely united behind him. Crown Prince @PahlaviReza is the bridge to a free, secular, and prosperous Iran. He is the only option to finally replace a rabid, global terror syndicate with a nation that stands as a force for good in the Middle East and the world.

40 victims are known so far in today’s Russian Shahed drones attack on Ukraine

MORE 🧵(1/3) | US and Israeli Air Campaign⬇️ The combined force has continued to strike Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has destroyed or rendered inaccessible approximately 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers, which is consistent with the general declining trend of Iranian missile fire. The combined force likely struck the Bid Ganeh missile facility in Tehran Province on March 22. The combined force also likely struck the Chamran missile base near Jam City, Bushehr Province, on March 23. US Central Command (CENTCOM) published a video on March 23 of strikes on Iranian drone launch sites in unspecified areas of Iran. The footage showed US strikes targeting an Arash-2 drone, a Shahed-136, and a mobile drone launch platform carrying another Shahed-136. Iran claimed to target Ben Gurion Airport with an Arash-2 drone on March 22. The combined force has continued to degrade Iranian air and air defense capabilities in order to maintain air dominance over parts of Iran. Geolocated footage shows the combined force likely struck the Artesh Ground Forces 4th Aviation Base in Esfahan City several times on March 23. The combined force also likely struck the Artesh Air Force 6th Tactical Air Base in Bushehr City on March 22. The IDF separately said on March 23 that it struck the IRGC Aerospace Force headquarters in Tehran. The combined force continued to strike Iranian naval infrastructure, possibly as part of its efforts to limit Iran’s ability to threaten international shipping. The combined force likely struck an ammunition depot at the Sijran naval training base in Kerman Province on March 23. Geolocated footage from anti-regime media shows what appears to be munitions cooking off after multiple strikes on the base, followed by a large secondary explosion. The combined force has continued to strike IRGC Ground Forces units and headquarters across Iran. The regime has historically deployed IRGC Ground Forces units to suppress internal unrest. The IDF announced on March 23 that it struck the IRGC Ground Forces Headquarters in eastern Tehran overnight. The combined force has targeted IRGC Ground Forces units at several echelons in central Iran. The combined force struck the Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base in Esfahan City on March 8. The combined force has also targeted IRGC Ground Forces units in southern Iran. The combined force has continued to strike internal security institutions in northeastern Iran. Satellite imagery showed that the combined force likely struck several buildings within a compound in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province, between March 3 and 13. The IDF announced that it struck the “IRGC Imam Ali headquarters” in southern Tehran on March 23. The IDF may be referring to the Imam Ali Central Security headquarters, which is the central Basij unit that oversees the Imam Ali Battalions across the country. The combined force has continued to strike industrial sites or companies with ties to the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. The IDF reported on March 23 that it struck manufacturing industries and additional research sites in various fields of electronics, ballistic missiles, and warheads in Tehran. Geolocated footage posted on March 23 showed damage to a building affiliated with Iran Electronic Industries in Tajrish, northeastern Tehran. The combined force killed a university professor who had supported research and development for Iran’s missile program. The strikes killed University of Science and Technology professor Saeed Shamghadri in the Chizar area in northern Tehran City on March 23.

Yesterday, the Deputy Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, Rear-Admiral Charlebois, and the Director of Naval Major Crown Projects – Combatant, Capt(N) Tremblay, unveiled a detailed scale model of the River-class destroyer ⚓️🇨🇦. 1/2

Iran has deployed at least a dozen Maham-3 and Maham-7 naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz -US officials to CBS Both types are capable mines equipped with magnetic and acoustic sensors fused to hundreds of pounds of explosives.

JUST IN 🔴 The IDF says it has taken out around 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers. More than half were destroyed in direct strikes, while others were rendered inoperable after the Israeli Air Force hit tunnel entrances to underground storage sites. The IAF is now hunting the remaining roughly 140 launchers, as incoming fire has dropped to about 10 missiles a day, down from roughly 90 on day 1.

🚨‼️ BREAKING 💥 ​Urgent and Important: Sounds of gunfire inside the Saudi Royal Palace in Riyadh, the residence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Let’s break it down in quick assessment to understand what is happening ⬇️⬇️ 🔹As for now , US & Israel continue precise, timeline-driven military ops against Iran—executed methodically with strategic & active back-channel communications to Tehran. 🔹 Prior assessment holds: Washington set to wind down naval operations and shift to regime change phase. ( See my previous assessment screenshot timeline data ⬇️) 🔹 Turkey & Pakistan key players: As Turkey Offered to host Russia-Ukraine talks on its soil (bypassing UAE) while pressuring Moscow for concessions, seeking greater Middle East influence—push led by FM in Riyadh , 🔹In which potentially leaning towards Japan -US nuclear program to host enriched uranium, as Russia 🇷🇺 won’t host Iran uranium per US rejection The Outcome ⤵️⤵️ 🔹 Iran’s Parliament Speaker accelerates diplomacy via FM Araghchi with regional, EU & Asian powers amid escalating “Shock and Awe” campaign & IDF “Decapitation” ops. 🔹 Outreach began Mar 1 post-assassination attempts (latest today). As Trump rejects talks w/ Araghchi or Pezeshkian. 🔹Mediations (Japan PM w/ regime contacts, France, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan) target Supreme Leader hardliners, question Mojtaba succession. Real power: Ghalibaf, Khatam al-Anbiya & IRGC per intel. 🔹 Russia is holding consultations with Iran's regime, particularly targeting Ghalibaf due to his strong ties with Moscow. 🔹Meanwhile, Russia is starting to evacuate the Bushehr power plant, signaling a military disengagement. 🔹The withdrawal process, including repatriating Russian personnel, has officially begun. 🚨 Apparent contacts—potentially direct—are underway with Witkoff and Kushner, facilitated by Turkish regional mediation and coordinated with Russia. 🚨 This timing aligns with Witkoff’s current preparatory negotiations with the Ukrainian delegation in Miami. 🚨 President Trump has rejected a ceasefire & instead chose a temporary suspension of operations against the regime's infrastructure, lacking guarantees that Israel will cease its actions. 🚨 There may be a pause in the "decapitation" strategy and caution on the assassination of Ghalibaf. Today's upcoming call, mentioned by the President, is likely to be made directly to the Iranian regime through the individual he referenced. 🚨 Israeli sources have identified this figure as Ghalibaf—described as having a “Kurdish father and a Persian mother”—a combination President Trump may currently view as ideal. 🚨 The President may have demanded that the regime announce a cessation of operations today—along with indications of a shift within the power hierarchy—prior to the call. He also alluded to a Venezuela-like scenario: the US or regional states sharing authority over the Strait. 🚨 This would be contingent upon measures signaling a shift in the balance of power or even a coup. Failure to act would signal a severe internal rift and lead to the regime’s collapse amid intense attacks. 🚨 Trump asserted that the individual poised to lead Iran agreed to core U.S. demands: surrendering uranium stockpiles, permanent oversight of nuclear and military programs, ceasing proxy support (and possibly providing intel to dismantle them), and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. 🚨 These fragile agreements were offered in exchange for Gulf states waiving reparations claims—an unlikely concession, as both MBS and MBZ rejected it. 🚨 The regime would thus lose assets and face accelerating collapse after UNSC resolutions. Expect an announcement soon, but this Iranian acted preemptively out of fear the regime would claim victory before any halt in operations.

WATCH: New video shows Air Canada flight crashing into rescue truck at New York airport

@NoahGairn I can build you models from scratch wood. Tanks, planes, etc

New Model Of The River-Class revealed open.substack.com/pub/truenorths…

On March 23, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) formally disbanded its long-standing “Fleet Escort Force” (護衛艦隊) and established a new “Fleet Surface Force” (水上艦隊), marking its most sweeping organizational overhaul since 1954 🇯🇵 By @TakahashiKosuke navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

#Iran #IranWar #Ukraine twitter.com/i/spaces/1rGmq…

NEW | Evening Update: US President Donald Trump threatened on March 21 to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Iran does not “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran has threatened to attack regional energy infrastructure if the United States attacks power plants in Iran. ISW-CTP has recorded several Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure since the war began on February 28, but the new threats could entail an expansion of such attacks. IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Karami visited unspecified IRGC Ground Forces units in western and northwestern Iran on March 22. The visit of the IRGC Ground Forces commander to units in northwestern provinces along Iran’s border is notable, given the combined force’s efforts to degrade internal security institutions in Iran’s western border region and reports about possible armed Kurdish mobilization along the Iran-Iraq border. The combined force continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Iranian missile production and storage facilities. The combined force targeted sites that produce short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, including the Fath-360 with a maximum range of 120 kilometers (km), Fateh-110 with a maximum range of 300km, the Zolfaghar with a maximum range of 700km, and the medium-range Haj Qasem ballistic missile with a maximum range of 1,400 km. Iran notably has supplied Russia with Fath-360s for Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine. The IRGC has reportedly restructured Hezbollah under a more decentralized command model following Israeli operations that degraded the group’s leadership in 2024. This decentralized structure aimed to improve operational security and reduce vulnerability to Israeli intelligence penetration.