Catherine Cashmore

1/7 In 1890 Henry George made his way to Australia. Twice a day, he gave lectures, for 3.5 months, to packed halls across Australia and New Zealand. From The Standard, 1890 "Imagine then, for two hours this man walking to and fro in his narrow slip of platform.....

***WARNING – BEFORE THE HEADLINES CATCH UP, THE INDICATORS AND TIMING WINDOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC RECESSION..*** (Note that this week's interview on war cycles, is presented as seperate a report from the main LCI Report instead of combined - link below) There are a few things happening right now that indicate a severe recession is forthcoming. Firstly, the squeeze on interest rates. In Australia, financial markets are now pricing in the likelihood of four rate hikes for 2026. It was always the forecast at LCI that we’d see rising rates into the peak. Until a few months ago, it was theoretical that we’d get there. Economists were still pricing in falls. But now the cycle forecast is in. We’ve already had two hikes - February and March – the next is likely to be in May, and if we get a fourth after that, it’s going to add around $470 to the average monthly cost of an average $736,000 new mortgage. There can be long periods in the cycle where prices rise despite interest rates edging higher. We saw it in the lead up to the land price peaks in previous cycles – 1973, 1989, 2008. That’s because the economy is typically perceived as going well due to the tidal wave of credit created and lent for speculation in preceding years. However, at the end of the cycle – where we are now - when interest rates finally bite – and the debt burden becomes too great, the timing is ripe for the downturn to commence. This always occurs in the final two years of expansion phase of the land cycle. It’s an easy count – the expansion phase is (on average) 14 years after the initial turn in prices following the last economic downturn. In the UK and USA, that started in 2012. In Australia, however, the timeline was slightly distorted. Unprecedented government intervention – including $30,000+ first home buyer grants, large-scale infrastructure spending, and relaxed foreign investment rules – prevented the typical post-peak correction from fully playing out. The market was artificially supported leading to a higher peak from 2007, in 2010. Albeit, land values did not begin a genuine, non-stimulus-driven recovery until around mid-2012, effectively aligning Australia’s cycle with the UK and US from that point forward. Therefore, that date (2012) also marks the Australian low for the purposes of cycle timing. Counting forward from 2012 gives us the familiar 14-year upward phase identified by Fred Harrison, placing the peak in Australian land values around late 2026. We know from all the historical studies of the land cycle, that eventually, when credit tightens - whether through rising interest rates, stricter lending standards, liquidity shortages, or external shocks – the cracks in the system (mortgage fraud, loose lending practices etc) are exposed, and the downturn typically follows rapidly. In this week's LCI Report you'll discover – We look at the latest Cotality data to show how the market is already shifting from peak to decline – the trends the headlines miss – I drill into housing turnover – the signal that consistently points to a forthcoming recession – What’s happening with the yield curve? It’s a classic late-cycle indicator – but will it invert this time? – US banks are already writing down loans – and it’s pointing to a much larger wave building beneath the surface – How bad could this downturn get? I dig into vacancy data from prior cycles, along with the hidden stock mainstream indexes miss – the implications are confronting – What unfolding oil shortages mean for Australia specifically – and why the impact could arrive in weeks, not months – And finally – the timing window I’m now watching for the downturn to take hold PLUS!! ***FORECASTING WAR CYCLES*** - WITH ANDREW PANCHOLI (DIRECTOR FOR THE FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES..) (NOTE: I've separated this week's interview out from the main LCI report to make it easier to assess and watch. - links below.) This week’s interview with Andrew Pancholi goes well beyond a market update. It’s a deeper look at where we are in the war cycle, grain prices, solar storms, and how those patterns are already feeding into commodities and inflation, and we tie it into an explanation of why it matters for the final phase of the land cycle. – A breakdown of the major war cycles Andrew tracks – and how they align with key historical turning points – Why Iran has been central to his work – and the timing windows that pointed to rising tension – The role of solar and geosolar activity – and why it’s part of his broader timing framework – What’s already happening in commodities – particularly grains and why this isn’t a one-off move – The link between supply disruption, food prices and sustained inflation pressure – Why escalating tensions in Asia could place Australia in a far more exposed position – A look at how Andrew actually works – from stacking cycles to tracking smart money – And how all of this ties back to economic stress, market turning points and the end stage of the cycle This week's interview landcycleinvestor.com/post/forecasti… This week's report landcycleinvestor.com/post/warning-b…

Domain Auction Results.. @Domaincomau National CR 58% (62% this time last year) Scheduled 3099 Reported 2148 Sold at Auction 1246 Sold Prior 565 Withdrawn 442 Passed In 429 Private Treaty Sales 8628 Median House $1,267,500 Median Unit $890,000 Total Value $1.17bn Sydney CR 58% (66% this time last year) Scheduled 1326 Reported 828 Sold at Auction 479 Sold Prior 297 Withdrawn 237 Passed In 100 Private Treaty Sales 2688 Median House $1,940,000 Median Unit $1,040,617 Total Value $557m Melbourne CR 59% (65% this time last year) Scheduled 1347 Reported 1020 Sold at Auction 604 Sold Prior 212 Withdrawn 160 Passed In 248 Private Treaty Sales 2497 Median House $1,020,000 Median Unit $700,000 Total Value $457m Brisbane CR 51% (47% this time last year) Scheduled 168 Reported 113 Sold at Auction 58 Sold Prior 14 Withdrawn 22 Passed In 33 Private Treaty Sales 1263 Median House $1,380,000 Median Unit N/A Total Value $56m Adelaide CR 59% (36% this time last year) Scheduled 151 Reported 99 Sold at Auction 58 Sold Prior 16 Withdrawn 7 Passed In 25 Private Treaty Sales 571 Median House $1,102,500 Median Unit N/A Total Value $59m Canberra CR 53% (55% this time last year) Scheduled 107 Reported 88 Sold at Auction 47 Sold Prior 26 Withdrawn 16 Passed In 23 Private Treaty Sales 386 Median House $1,222,000 Median Unit N/A Total Value $40m

3Y bond

The war has been won...again.

@AlboMP @Tony_Burke @PaulineHansonOz Tony Burke threatened and a scuffle breaks out amid cries of "Allahu Akhbar".

"Australia spent 35 years borrowing foreign savings to inflate land prices." Fact Check: Accurate ✅✅✅

Ladies and gentlemens, brace yourselves history is repeating with a vengeance, and the sequel looks even more explosive. I present to you the new and improved synthetic mortgage-backed CDOs that detonated the 2008 financial crisis… rebranded for 2026 as private credit funds. BlackRock has just made history For the first time ever, they’ve slammed the gates shut on their high risk $26 billion private credit flagship (HLEND), capping redemptions at a brutal 5% after investors tried to yank out 9.3% ($1.2 billion) in a single quarter. Only $620 million gets paid out good luck to the rest still trapped inside. And that’s just the appetizer. Blackstone’s monster BCRED the largest non-traded private credit vehicle on the planet at $82 billion….faced a record 7.9% redemption tsunami ($3.8 billion sought). They flexed to meet it all (upsizing the limit and injecting firm/employee cash), but net outflows still hit $1.7 billion after inflows. These two titans alone represent over $108 billion in combined outflow pressure right now. The entire $2 trillion global private credit empire is teetering on the edge and we haven’t even seen a real equities bloodbath yet. Imagine what happens when panic truly sets in, when the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater, and forced sales of illiquid loans start cascading through the system. This isn’t just a liquidity hiccup. It’s the echoes of 2008 on steroids: opaque lending, retail investors piling in for yield, liquidity mismatches waiting to explode, and now the first real gates slamming shut. The contagion could make the subprime meltdown look bullish in comparison. Buckle up…..this shadow banking giant is waking up, and when it stumbles, the fallout won’t be contained to a few funds. Stay vigilant and remain diligent. Yours truly, The Great Martis✨

Auction results - @Domaincomau - the table was far better for analysis... change it back. Melb and Syd markets are weakening. Although the Melb auction I attended today had 4 bidders. 4 bidders and 2 fig trees. National Preliminary clearance rate: 59% (63% this time last year) Scheduled: 3,100 Reported: 2,095 Sold at auction: 1,239 Sold prior: 586 Withdrawn: 397 Passed in: 422 Private treaty sales: 8,005 Median house price: $1,260,500 Median unit price: $877,500 Total value sold: $1.079bn Sydney Clearance rate: 60% (65% last year) Scheduled: 1,307 Reported: 804 Sold at auction: 485 Sold prior: 306 Withdrawn: 226 Passed in: 81 Private treaty sales: 2,686 Median house price: $1,875,000 Median unit price: $1,110,800 Total value sold: $493m Melbourne Clearance rate: 61% (65% last year) Scheduled: 1,324 Reported: 964 Sold at auction: 583 Sold prior: 214 Withdrawn: 123 Passed in: 244 Private treaty sales: 2,022 Median house price: $1,020,000 Median unit price: $715,000 Total value sold: $435m Brisbane Clearance rate: 40% (52% last year) Scheduled: 166 Reported: 115 Sold at auction: 46 Sold prior: 13 Withdrawn: 17 Passed in: 50 Private treaty sales: 1,260 Median house price: $1,567,500 Total value sold: $56m Adelaide Clearance rate: 66% (47% last year) Scheduled: 164 Reported: 99 Sold at auction: 65 Sold prior: 18 Withdrawn: 7 Passed in: 21 Private treaty sales: 442 Median house price: $1,100,000 Total value sold: $53m Canberra Clearance rate: 53% (46% last year) Scheduled: 139 Reported: 113 Sold at auction: 60 Sold prior: 35 Withdrawn: 24 Passed in: 26 Private treaty sales: 251 Median house price: $1,135,000 Total value sold: $40m

THIS WEEK'S LAND CYCLE INVESTOR REPORT! ***HOW WAR REWRITES THE LAND CYCLE IN BOTH TIMING AND PRICES... BE PREPARED.. ***. A few days ago, I caught up for a brief chat with global forecaster David Murrin. Those who have followed my work for some time will likely be familiar with David’s analysis. I’ve been corresponding with him since 2022, when I first came across his work, which in part draws on the 54-year Kondratieff cycle (K-wave – 3 x 18). Major conflict tends to emerge at the end of these long cycles. However, David’s depth of knowledge when it comes to geopolitics, military strategy and weapons systems places him in a far stronger position than myself to assess what events may occur next – particularly in an environment that is already moving into the early stages of what is now assessed to be a third world war. I referenced one of his charts illustrating the commodity cycle in last week’s Land Cycle Investor report. Kondratieff’s data evidenced that prices bottomed in the 1770s and peaked in 1819 after the Napoleonic wars. They bottomed again in the 1840s and peaked in the early 1860s with the US Civil War. They bottomed again in the late 1890s and peaked in the 1920s — just following the First World War. This analysis allowed Kondratieff to forecast the early 1930s depression (which occurred after his death), with the subsequent recovery swinging upwards into the 1970s (1974). 2000 was the low point that started the next long wave. In other words, we are now firmly on the upswing of the commodity price wave due to peak at the end of this decade (likely around 2027 - 2030) – which also forecasts war (as we’re already seeing globally in both Europe and the Middle East.) Hence! This week’s LCI Report looks at a question very few analysts ever ask – what actually happens to the land cycle when the world moves into a period of major conflict? Using historical analysis from the First and Second World Wars, the 1970s commodity shock, and the work of Homer Hoyt, Samuel Benner, Fred Harrison and the Kondratieff Wave, we examine how war has distorts the timing of the land cycle – and what that could mean for the current cycle as we approach the anticipated 2026 peak. You'll discover • The little-known way World War One shifted the timing of the 18-year land cycle • Why the “Lost Depression” of the early 1920s didn’t crash real estate as it should have • The farmland boom that preceded the last major commodity peaks • What the 1970s oil shock reveals about property markets today • The 150-year-old forecasting chart that still maps market turning points and demonstrates the WW1 disruption to the Land Cycle's timing • Why commodity booms often precede major real estate downturns • The historical relationship between war, migration and land values • The four global crises Fred Harrison believes will collide at this cycle peak PLUS MUCH MORE!! landcycleinvestor.com/post/how-war-r…

@island82839 @PeteWargent @Domaincomau Good point

@CC_CASHMORE @PeteWargent @Domaincomau Long weekend though?

Auction results.. Domain.. Don't much like the new format - which doesn't include last week's revised. The results in a table were far clearer to assess (@Domaincomau ).. But here goes.. CRs are falling.. median prices will follow SYDNEY!! 64% Scheduled1278 Reported783 Sold at Auction500 Sold Prior324 Withdrawn198 Passed In78 Private Treaty Sales2592 Median sale price (houses)$1,975,000 MELBOURNE!! 59% Scheduled596 Reported415 Sold at Auction244 Sold Prior81 Withdrawn61 Passed In105 Private Treaty Sales2189 Median sale price (houses)$940,000 Median sale price (units)$677,000 Total value sold (million)$181 BRISBANE!!! 49% Scheduled114 Reported75 Sold at Auction37 Sold Prior10 Withdrawn11 Passed In26 Private Treaty Sales1237 Median sale price (houses)$1,370,000 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$41 ADELAIDE!! 70% Scheduled130 Reported82 Sold at Auction57 Sold Prior13 Withdrawn5 Passed In15 Private Treaty Sales514 Median sale price (houses)$1,100,000 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$52 CANBERRA!! 59% Scheduled75 Reported63 Sold at Auction37 Sold Prior13 Withdrawn9 Passed In17 Private Treaty Sales358 Median sale price (houses)$1,320,000 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$32 And..... NATIONAL!! 62% Scheduled2193 Reported1418 Sold at Auction875 Sold Prior441 Withdrawn284 Passed In241 Private Treaty Sales8097 Median sale price (houses)$1,411,000 Median sale price (units)$922,500 Total value sold (million)$848

@grousecobba @Domaincomau @grok Prior to auction results are included in the CR - the falling CR in Melb/Syd is just due to market conditions

@CC_CASHMORE @Domaincomau @grok am i silly or does not give enough info on the reason why its falling? I.e. prior auction results

In this week’s Land Cycle Investor report, I outline how the current conflict is accelerating the move into the final downturn of the land cycle. - How today’s setup mirrors the land cycle and Kondratieff Wave peak - How war in the Middle East will impact Australia - How Perth behaved in the last Kondratieff Wave peak – and whether we could see a similar pattern. - How the land cycle’s final stage is unfolding – and the path toward a sharp reversal ALSO! ***On the Ground in America - Melody Wright on the Hidden Housing Stress*** To examine where things are now in the U.S., I had the pleasure of connecting once again with with Melody Wright to discuss what she’s seeing on the ground. Melody Wright is a US housing and credit analyst with deep experience inside the mortgage and financial system. She worked through the Global Financial Crisis managing default portfolios and now tracks housing, credit and liquidity conditions across more than 80 US markets in real time. Her focus is not headlines or median price series, but the structural plumbing of the system – lending flows, shadow credit, vacancy, transaction activity and investor behaviour. Her assessment is blunt: the US property cycle has already peaked, but the stress is being obscured by distorted data and policy intervention. Melody is one of my favourite guests to interview – possibly my favourite. We think along very similar lines and often find surprising synchronicities in our research, which makes for an easy, natural exchange. The conversation is wide-ranging: we cover a lot of ground, compare research, test ideas and talk through how each of us is interpreting the signals in this stage of the cycle. In this interview – you’ll discover.. - Why US housing stress is far worse than headline data suggests - Where oversupply is building fast – and why it’s being ignored - The hidden credit risks sitting outside the banking system - Why private credit could be this cycle’s subprime moment - What vacancy and transaction data are really signalling - How government programs are distorting price measures - Why new-home markets are flashing early warning signs - Where liquidity is quietly draining from the system - The parallels between today and the lead-up to past downturns - What this means for the timing of the current land cycle peak How bad is the collapse going to be? We get to that as well.. landcycleinvestor.com/.../war-credit...

It’s been almost 150 years since this political ad was posted in newspapers. What are we doing? Stop taxing things we want more of. Stop taxing labor. Stop taxing property. Tax land. Tax consumption. Tax emissions. Redistribute the revenue as universal basic income.

I'll get better at pasting these.. perhaps use the space bar next time :)

$3.00 a litre for 98. It’s getting serious.

This week’s LCI report is the full replay of the LCI live ZOOM event with finance guru Pete Wargent. We covered a lot of ground – far more than “where are prices going next?” Firstly – a huge thank you to everyone who jumped on the live session. It honestly meant a lot to see so many of you there. I never take your time or support for granted. We had so many questions this round – far more than we could get through. It’s been a little while since I’ve done a live Zoom (our first for the year), so they’d clearly been building up. If I didn’t get to yours, please don’t think it was overlooked. I’ll be doing another session with Pete in a couple of months’ and we’ll dive back into all of it again – including pinning timing for the anticipated peak in property and equity markets. I’m also hoping to do a live Webinar with Global Forecaster David Murrin and Director for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Andrew Pancholi in the not-too-distant future. ***Talks about potential changes to CGT - the final nail in the coffin for further price increases.. ?*** As for this week’s live – it started with the big political risk now creeping into the housing market – capital gains tax. It’s not just about the mechanics of whether changes would be grandfathered, but the real issue is how it would impact sentiment and therefore prices. ***Could High Immigration - Pressure on Supply/Demand - Prevent a Large Downturn.. ? *** From there we moved into the one factor that has propped markets up through the second half of this cycle – immigration. We unpacked why Australia isn’t necessarily Canada or New Zealand (skills shortages, infrastructure, the Olympics, the NDIS), but also why it’s dangerous to assume today’s population surge is a permanent “new normal”. In past downturns, migration patterns can flip hard and fast – and when that happens, vacancy rates and prices don’t stay where they were. ***Leading Indicators For the Land Cycle Peak... *** We also dug into a classic land cycle tell – building permits as a leading indicator. I walked through why the old researchers (Hoyt, Wenzlick, Riddleman and others) watched permits so closely – and why the US homebuilder peak is flashing late-cycle signals again. ***The Future of Australian Interest Rates.. ? *** Then we went straight into Australian rates and the psychology shift that comes when people realise the “rate cutting cycle” was temporary. Pete broke down what the inflation prints imply and why markets are watching May so closely - and why this was all part of the land cycle forecast. ***How the Market can Change from Under-Supply to Over-Supply... *** The discussion then turned to the supply story – and why “undersupply” can be a misleading comfort blanket at cycle peaks. ***Property Indicators to Watch to Warn of the Potential Downturn.. *** We also covered the practical indicators subscribers should watch if they want early warning signals before the downturn. ***City-by-City Breakdowns..*** There were strong city-by-city takeaways too. We talked about why Perth is still running hot, why that doesn’t mean “forever”, and why commodity-cycle tailwinds can change the speed of recovery after a wobble. ***Where to Stash Your Capital Ahead of the 2026 Peak..... *** We finished with a very real question people are asking quietly right now – and a question that comes up in every live event - how do you think about capital preservation heading into a potential 2027 downturn if you’re not a trader? Pete walked through simple portfolio logic (and why “cash” matters.), and we touched on what tends to happen to gold in crisis periods – and why different commodities behave differently as you approach the peak. All this and more.. we had plenty of questions! ***Coming Up! *** Next week I hope to get U.S. analyst Melody Wright from M3_Melody Substack back on for an update on the U.S. markets. I interviewed Melody last year in a terrific discussion on the market. You can watch it on the LCI YouTube channel. ***Bonus Podcast! *** As a bonus, I also sat down with Leith Van Onselen Chief Economists at MacroBusiness this week to dig deeper into the impact of CGT on property markets, along with the latest population data and what it really means for prices. Log into your Land Cycle Investor account now to read this week's report and watch the LIVE replay. landcycleinvestor.com/post/lci-live-…

Here they are in total - Domain's Auction results.. Sydney Scheduled 1489 Reported 939 Sold at Auction 611Sold Prior376 Withdrawn 231 Passed In87 Private Treaty Sales 2703 Median sale price (houses) $1,910,000 Median sale price (units)$1,105,000 Total value sold (million)$662 Melbourne Scheduled 1634 Reported 1228 Sold at Auction 811 Sold Prior 269 Withdrawn1 45 Passed In 266 Private Treaty Sales 2456 Median sale price (houses)$1,130,000 Median sale price (units)$760,000 Total value sold (million)$622 Brisbane Scheduled170 Reported108 Sold at Auction52 Sold Prior13 Withdrawn17 Passed In36 Private Treaty Sales1291 Median sale price (houses)$1,275,000 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$49 Canberra Scheduled141 Reported108 Sold at Auction63 Sold Prior28 Withdrawn13 Passed In29 Private Treaty Sales360 Median sale price (houses)$1,173,500 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$50 Adelaide Scheduled156 Reported105 Sold at Auction71 Sold Prior14 Withdrawn7 Passed In22 Private Treaty Sales530 Median sale price (houses)$982,500 Median sale price (units)N/A Total value sold (million)$56 National Scheduled3590 Reported2488 Sold at Auction1608 Sold Prior700 Withdrawn413 Passed In440 Private Treaty Sales8434 Median sale price (houses)$1,300,000 Median sale price (units)$870,000 Total value sold (million)$1,442

Ay-up - Domain has changed how it sets out the Auction results... not as good IMO.. but still.. here you go..