Catherine Cashmore

1/7 In 1890 Henry George made his way to Australia. Twice a day, he gave lectures, for 3.5 months, to packed halls across Australia and New Zealand. From The Standard, 1890 "Imagine then, for two hours this man walking to and fro in his narrow slip of platform.....

Very few properties again selling this week Stamp duty 📉

@CC_CASHMORE @EagleOnEagleSt Yes, the anti-auction phase is certainly a thing in the cycle.

It was fantastic to see so many of you join me and Andrew Pancholi on Wednesday evening for another LCI LIVE Zoom event. Thanks so much to all that sent in questions and engaged with the session. Andrew - is the creator of the Market Timing Report and a director for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and he is one of the best forecasters I’ve come across. I wanted him to join me to answer all your questions and go over the key dates and time windows for the end of the land cycle that may shape both economic and geopolitical events as we move toward, what I continue to believe, will be a very difficult period from late 2026 into 2027 - leading to a recession in 2028. Andrew’s focus is on a wide range of cycles – not just the 18-year cycle – however, as I stress throughout this publication, the 18-year land cycle is not only a harmonic of many of the major long-wave cycles, but because of land’s unique position in the economy, it effectively acts like gravity to all economic cycles. This is why Edward Dewey referred to the 18-year cycle in his landmark book Cycles: The Science of Prediction (1947) as "the most important economic cycle" we have. Land is the foundation of the economy. Small businesses, banking, finance, construction, retail spending and credit creation are all effectively choreographed around the land market. When transaction volumes are high, and speculation is running rife, these businesses thrive. More people buying and selling property means more removals, more furniture sales, more whitegoods purchased, more renovations, more insurance policies written, more finance commissions, more advertising revenue for media companies, more legal and conveyancing work, more accommodation demand and construction activity... However, toward the end of the cycle, as interest rates rise, credit tightens and transaction volumes begin falling. Even before prices collapse significantly, the slowdown in turnover alone starts pushing many small businesses into recession because the flow of economic activity tied to the land market begins drying up. If you understand nothing else, you can still make exceptional long-term investment decisions simply by understanding the land cycle and its main driver - the thirst for economic rent. It remains, that if the economic rent from land and natural resources isn’t collected and returned to the community on whose behalf that value was created, you will spend a lifetime paying taxes to fund the government, which spends most of its time protecting the rights of the largest monopolists who benefit from controlling large chucks of our land and natural resources. The finance sector for example, that now effectively mortgages access to the earth itself, trading the debt on a multi trillion dollar derivatives market. Big AI and technology companies which control of huge amounts of land, data centres, communications systems and enclosure of the electromagnetic sphere that everyone in a modern economy needs to function. At the same time, mining and energy companies export the our coal and gas overseas while we pay rocketing costs to fuel our homes. Regular readers of this publication will already have a broad understanding of this - and how the first and second halves of the land cycle differ and what that means for portfolio positioning - and real estate investing. However, in the weeks ahead, I'll dedicate more time focusing on the first half of the next cycle and the opportunities that may emerge through the downturn. The idea being that readers can begin preparing now rather than reacting emotionally later. For now however, below is a summary of some of the major themes Andrew covered during the session. Andrew discussed several key dates. I have bolded these in the body of the report for those that do not want to listen to the entire recording. Other points discussed include - The key dates and timing windows Andrew is watching into 2026–2029 - Why years ending in 7 have historically been dangerous for markets - Whether the ASX and Australian banks may have already topped - The growing similarities between today’s AI boom and the dot-com bubble - Gold, silver and whether precious metals could initially crash before surging higher - Why bond yields are becoming a major problem for the global financial system - The Strait of Hormuz, Middle East tensions and the risk of an oil shock - War cycles, geopolitical escalation and China’s possible involvement ahead -Why commodities can continue rising even while broader markets weaken - The 100-year cycle, the 90-year cycle and whether the real danger period is 2028 rather than 2029 This is undoubtedly one of the most well attended live events that LCI has hosted. Click the link below to watch it now! landcycleinvestor.com/post/replay-li…

@LandCycle It was a great interview. I'll be sending you an email soon with a roadmap of the indicators I'm watching for the turn - may be helpful, may be useless, time will tell but you may at least find it interesting 😉

@EagleOnEagleSt Yeah - starting to get into an atmosphere where auctions are not the best method of sale. A lot of behind doors negotiation going on.

@CC_CASHMORE Checkout the unreported… nearly 50% unreported spells big trouble brewing…

Auction results.. (Domain) National Preliminary Clearance Rate 53% 65% this time last year Scheduled: 2557 Reported: 1516 Sold at Auction: 802 Sold Prior: 397 Withdrawn: 357 Passed In: 342 Private Treaty Sales: 6678 Median sale price (houses): $1,212,000 Median sale price (units): $830,000 Total value sold (million): $588 Sydney Preliminary Clearance Rate 53% 68% this time last year Scheduled: 1038 Reported: 536 Sold at Auction: 285 Sold Prior: 199 Withdrawn: 179 Passed In: 66 Private Treaty Sales: 2017 Median sale price (houses): $1,825,000 Median sale price (units): $972,500 Total value sold (million): $250 Melbourne Preliminary Clearance Rate 59% 68% this time last year Scheduled: 1032 Reported: 687 Sold at Auction: 407 Sold Prior: 136 Withdrawn: 118 Passed In: 159 Private Treaty Sales: 1806 Median sale price (houses): $1,040,000 Median sale price (units): $690,500 Total value sold (million): $266 Brisbane Preliminary Clearance Rate 19% 51% this time last year Scheduled: 189 Reported: 120 Sold at Auction: 23 Sold Prior: 11 Withdrawn: 20 Passed In: 77 Private Treaty Sales: 956 Median sale price (houses): $1,432,500 Median sale price (units): N/A Total value sold (million): $17 Adelaide Preliminary Clearance Rate 58% 39% this time last year Scheduled: 154 Reported: 71 Sold at Auction: 41 Sold Prior: 22 Withdrawn: 10 Passed In: 15 Private Treaty Sales: 461 Median sale price (houses): $920,000 Median sale price (units): N/A Total value sold (million): $29 Canberra Preliminary Clearance Rate 45% 64% this time last year Scheduled: 144 Reported: 102 Sold at Auction: 46 Sold Prior: 29 Withdrawn: 30 Passed In: 25 Private Treaty Sales: 285 Median sale price (houses): $1,035,500 Median sale price (units): N/A Total value sold (million): $24

The 18.6-year Land Cycle, by Catherine Cashmore. thedepression.org.au/?p=45168

A good day to share my deep dive on the idea that we have a housing shortage, and why it never dies. 1920s? Housing shortage. 1970s? Housing shortage. You name it. Housing shortage. Read more here and subscribe for more deep dives fresheconomicthinking.com/p/so-about-tha…

H/T @bryankav123 ""Like a flash, it came upon me that there was the reason for advancing poverty with advancing wealth."

So great seeing @leithvo on the Karl Stefanovic podcast. There's few economists that can really cut through the economic data in the way Leith does - take a listen. youtube.com/watch?v=ToNKpf…

@bryankav123 @JEChalmers @AngusTaylorMP This is a great breakdown BK

Despite investors objections, the budget is a step in the right direction for people needing a home. The real irony is that Treasurer @JEChalmers is wrong that @AngusTaylorMP's proposed extra federal govt spending is inflationary when it's land prices that generate inflation.

THE BUDGET TAX GRAB THAT COULD DEEPEN THE 2028 RECESSION... I was not applauding the budget this week. Not necessarily because of the direction of the most controversial policies, more so because of the timing. Australia’s economy remains heavily tied to rising land values. If governments are going to wind back the tax incentives that have driven property speculation for decades as we approach a major cyclical downturn, there needs to be something big on the other side to stimulate the ‘real’ economy. I’m talking about meaningful income tax reform - policies that genuinely lift productivity. This budget offered nothing of the sort. It was a tax grab. I’m going to focus specifically on the property market impact here – particularly the grandfathering of negative gearing and the changes to the capital gains tax discount. Because recessions that emerge at the end the land cycle are often deeper and longer lasting than mid-cycle recessions. The forthcoming recession will impact vast swathes of the economy that has choreographed itself around the finance, insurance and real estate sectors (the FIRE sectors). Two points are therefore relevant: 1. The extent of the bust depends on the magnitude of the boom. Every boom is followed by a bust. The severity of the downturn depends on how much speculation in land prices there has been during the upswing. The more inflated the land price market, the harder the eventual correction. 2. Government policy shapes the crash - and reinflates the cycle. The extent of the damage during a downturn is often determined by government intervention - such as homebuyer grants, mortgage holidays, and stimulus payments. These can soften the blow and prevent widespread foreclosures. Hence, implementing policies at this stage of the cycle that discourage investor activity in the property market (although not bad in themselves) will inevitably intensify the pain once the downturn takes hold. In this week's Land Cycle Investor report you'll discover.. - Why the budget changes to negative gearing and CGT may intensify the downturn into 2028 - I strip away the market spin and show you how it will really impact the economy. - Will rents rise? - Will investors flee the market? - Will the government backflip in 2027? - What will be the real outcomes of this reform..both good, and bad? I drill into the detail with charts and data plus much more! - PLUS The 45-year historical repeat that's taking us into a mega downturn ***EXCLUSIVE! - FRED HARRISON: THE END OF THE LAND CYCLE AND THE GREAT DESTRUCTION OF CIVILISATION*** It was a pleasure to sit down with Fred Harrison this week to discuss his latest book, Cheating: The Human Project and its Betrayal, which is out now. Originally intended to be Fred's final publication, the project has since expanded into a two-part series, with the second instalment due for release next year. Fred’s analysis in Cheating goes far beyond the usual discussion around greed, monopolies and rent-seeking. Most economists talk about “economic rent” as simply money extracted through land, banking or monopoly power. Fred takes it much further. He argues the system is effectively feeding off human energy itself. People’s time, productivity, creativity and effort are constantly being drained into systems designed around extraction instead of genuine progress. It’s not just an economic problem anymore. Rent seeking has become cultural and psychological. People work harder than ever, yet feel further behind. He also gets into territory very few economists are even discussing properly yet – AI. Fred sees artificial intelligence as either one of the greatest opportunities humanity has ever had, or one of the biggest threats, depending on who controls the benefits from it. If the gains from AI are captured by the same systems already monopolising land, housing, finance and resources, the divide between those who own and those who work will become extreme. Fred’s warning, however, goes even further than economics. He believes the downturn approaching into 2028 could become the point where four major crises collide at once – a debt and financial crisis, escalating geopolitical conflict and war, the disruption from artificial intelligence and technological displacement, and the growing environmental and resource crisis tied to climate and energy systems. Separately, each one would be difficult enough to manage. Together, Fred argues they will overwhelm political and economic systems already weakened by decades of speculation, inequality and short-term thinking. That’s why he says this cycle may be different from all the others before it. A genuine threat to the stability of civilisation as we currently know it. Honestly, there’s nobody else quite like Fred Harrison when it comes to getting to the absolute core of it all. Plenty of analysts can tell you prices are too high or a recession is coming. Fred pulls apart the machinery underneath the entire system – land, speculation, debt, power, monopoly and the way societies organise themselves around them. He gets right into the nitty gritty of what actually drives civilisation forward – and what ultimately pulls it apart. landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-budge…

This budget takes the idea of inter-generational fairness and blows it to pieces... Young people slugged a minimum 30% tax on capital gains, even low income earners, while pensioners are entirely immune. That is the complete opposite.

Ross Greenwood is on fire tonight. @Ross_Greenwood "Since negative gearing will still apply on shares, let's set up an ETF full of houses and allow investors to gear up against that!" Yes, legally, that could be done.

Renting the median house in Australia is more expensive today (asking rents) as a proportion of median household income than at any other period in the last 20 years. Data: Cotality Housing Affordability Report

Ok, first observations. Look at this chart. Look at the forecasted housing investment compared to the RBA forecasts. I really do think that given the NG changes, the RBA's forecasts are more realistic.

@GerladVDM lol yup

@CC_CASHMORE 🤡Keen; A coincidence every 18 years 🤡Oliver; No evidence

"....the entire Aussie economy is dangerously over-leveraged on the bet that house prices will never stop rising — and that the people who are “going to get really burnt” are the first home buyers who took advantage of the federal government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme.." news.com.au/finance/econom…

@sagashiio @leithvo @HenryInnis I'll put it on the list to discuss this week

@CC_CASHMORE @leithvo @HenryInnis Would love to get yours, and @leithvo perspective on this if possible. 3/3

@CC_CASHMORE Would love to see you ask @leithvo on your next podcast about the change in CGT policy and how it will impact innovation and startups if there's no carve out? Simply put, it will double the tax bill and halve the exit price on sale for startups and small biz 1/n