🇨🇦 Policy Hawk

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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk

🇨🇦 Policy Hawk

@CDNPolicyHawk

Freelance Canadian security analyst & writer. https://t.co/nu5qyWHWFN Also published by: @VanguardMag | https://t.co/4nHz6brCyR | https://t.co/IixSnKpARp | @navalassn | @DominionReview

Katılım Aralık 2022
498 Takip Edilen4.8K Takipçiler
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk retweetledi
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Climate change. Canada’s boreal forest is far north. Most parts of it only reach 64F (18C) averages in the heat of the summer. Its density and climate also means it gets very little evaporation compared to its rainfall, and is subject to frost 9 months of the year, and heavy fog the rest of the time. This kept this biome very humid, kept soil damp, and left most of the low level foliage coated in dew all day long. Some parts of the forest even had thick levels of permafrost beneath the topsoil that on rare hot days would seep water back into the ecosystem. Just as many wildfires started by lightning strike in previous decades as now. The difference is they struggled to catch and spread in this damp environment. Now extreme dry weather, record breaking heat, northern thaw, erode that protective moisture barrier, leaving the boreal forest vulnerable especially in the more southern parts. Boreal forests previously went through this process naturally when an over density caused a drier environment you’d get high-intensity crown fires that were cyclical. Every 50-200 years depending on region. Now we get them annually. Boreal forest fires are much more severe than others too. The long history of cyclical burns means the soil contains charcoal, the thick multi-layer foliage adds fodder and causes the fire to spread quickly, and pine, spruce, and aspens are all some of the trees with both the most density and the best for wood burning. It results in towering forest fires of immense heat and rapid spread. These forests are denser than anything else in North America or Europe, and the current fire in Ontario alone, is the same square mileage as the entire state of Delaware. From the time it ignited, to covering that size, took less than 20 hours. While some in the US still think climate change is a hoax, we are all going to deal with the consequences of it, as we’ve turned the largest forest in the world into a tinder box, and fires in less than 0.01% of it drowns the entire continent in smoke.
Zurac III@Caruzkcab

Will someone explain why we didn't get this Canadian smoke in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, or 2010s? Now twice in the 2020s. Seems weird to me

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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
I am sometimes a twit... But CL-415s are a sub-type of CL-215s, which is why this particular plane's type certificate refers to it as a "CL-215-6B11 (Series CL-415)". When talking about a specific plane, you're absolutely right that it's more common to refer to it as a CL-415. But there's nothing incorrect about calling it a CL-215, and if you're referring to a group of aircraft that includes a mix of sub-types, "CL-215s" is the correct way to refer to them collectively. My original draft of this post talked about them collectively, and I guess the "CL-215" name survived the edits.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk retweetledi
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
In May, @dehavillandAIR invited me to to take a close look at one of their iconic water bombers, many of which are being used to fight wildfires across Canada right now. This particular airframe is a '90s vintage CL-215 belonging to the Government of Quebec, but it's being used as a technology demonstrator ahead of the completion of the first CL-515s. The production line for these aircraft shut down in 2015 before De Havilland acquired rights to the aircraft in 2016. They announced that they would be establishing a new production line for an updated CL-515 variant in 2022, and have been working towards new aircraft since. The initial CL-515 is expected to fly in 2027, with deliveries starting in 2028. The first ~20 deliveries are all going to European governments and will occupy all available production through 2030. Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba have all placed orders with their scheduled delivery dates being split between 2031 and 2032. The photos include an external shot of the entire fuselage, one focused on its starboard Pratt & Whitney Canada PW123AF, an image of its flight deck (which has been upgraded to reflect what will be present on the new CL-515s), and an internal shot facing the front of the aircraft from the mid-section, in which you can see the two main water tanks on each side and through to the flight deck.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
@PapaOoomMowMow @dehavillandAIR Hmm... yeah, fair enough. I do see that, now. Still seems easier than acquiring a completely separate type of aircraft. But it's clearly less straightforward than I thought. Is MAFFS completely ro/ro on the C-130?
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
It looks like it's a one time modification to install tie down points, which doesn't impact other uses? I'm reading about this now, so I might be missing something. But that doesn't seem especially extensive to me. Certainly, you could do far more extensive modifications than that and still be a lot easier to manage than acquiring an entirely separate fleet of aircraft.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
Only 20,000 lbs? There are ro/ro firefighting kits for the C-130 that let them drop over 30,000 lbs, and the A400 is a lot bigger. The RCAF doesn't have them, of course, and I think there would be a lot of push back against getting them because it would, effectively, force those assets to do firefighting and nothing else for 3-4 months every year. And they're needed for other work.
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Is this thing on?
Is this thing on?@PapaOoomMowMow·
@CDNPolicyHawk @dehavillandAIR It's good to see these new bombers being built but we should augment these domestic fleets with RCAF A400Ms. One of the new features of the latest iteration of the A400M is a ro/ro firefighting kit that turn them into a water bomber with a 20,000lbs payload capacity.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
@captpotatoold @dehavillandAIR I'm not sure what the most restrictive bottleneck is for them, so I couldn't say. But more orders are probably a piece. Their order book right now is only several dozen aircraft.. not hundreds. And existing orders may not want to be bumped up for financial reasons.
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Capt Potato
Capt Potato@captpotatoold·
@CDNPolicyHawk @dehavillandAIR The question: how deHavilland can ramp up production? Maybe the Defense investment agency could help, as this is a Security challenge. It may help finance provinces buys. The more bombers there is, the less CAF are to be called to help…
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
@dehavillandAIR Incidentally, this specific aircraft flew from Ottawa (where I saw it) to Waterloo (my local airport) a couple days after I saw it, and doesn't appear to have flown since. So, it's not currently fighting fires. I assume it's in Waterloo for additional modifications.
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk tweet media
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Rod Lister
Rod Lister@ListerRod·
@CDNPolicyHawk New rule: People making foolishness comments about wildfires in Canada need to spend a week in a borreal forest with no compass before another comment.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
@Schizointel Do what faster? We have an order in place. You're saying we should do something today, but your suggestions for "what" are all based on an unchangeable past.
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Intelschizo
Intelschizo@Schizointel·
Do it faster. It shouldn't take 15 years to sign a memorandum of understanding. It shouldn't take nearly a decade to renegotiate a contract and now that there's a memorandum of understanding, how many more years will it take to actually sign an agreement let alone actually start seeing the aircraft
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
@Schizointel You're getting some details wrong... but notwithstanding that, so what? We are where we are and that's all history. You posted today, calling on Canada to "Just do something". We have an order in place that we're waiting on the US to fulfill. What would you like us to do?
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Intelschizo
Intelschizo@Schizointel·
The initial order of 65 F-35s was in 2010. This was then scrapped completely in 2015 and then took 8 years to make a new deal for 88 F-35s Let's not forget. The reason it was canceled in 2015 was Trudeau's campaign of never the f-35 and then he failed to make a deal for Gripen like he promised. Like if the original deal from 2010 was never canceled The first F-35s would have arrived in 2016 and the last one would have arrived in 2023. Instead the first one's going to arrive at the end of 2026 and the last will arrive in 2034. Also originally the hornet would have began retirement in 2017 and be completely phased out by 2020 and now instead will phased out in 2032
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Duke
Duke@Duke_113·
@CDNPolicyHawk Is it possible that: The bridge had an amortization schedule planned. And that under the old deal, any extra revenue/profits/etc went to accelerate this schedule. But under the new deal the extra goes towards the 50-50 split?
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk·
I like a lot about how Carney's approached being PM. But, today, I felt like he assumed Canadians were idiots who wouldn't understand the meaning of the financial terms he was using. But I do. How he's using them doesn't make sense. And there's a reason behind it.
🇨🇦 Policy Hawk@CDNPolicyHawk

Were Carney's comments on Sunday about the Gordie Howe Bridge financial split with the US a lie? Did he not understand the deal he agreed to? Or maybe Trump twisted his arm into changing the terms after the fact? There's something weird going on with his comments today compared to his comments on Sunday, and none of the explanations I can think of are flattering for him. On Sunday, describing the financial split within the deal, he said, "We get the revenues, then the servicing of the costs of the bridge, and paying the debt of the bridge, and then what's left over -- there's a split of that for 15 years". That's precise description of splitting "net income", which is revenue minus operating costs minus debt payments. He never actually said "net income", but he did say "the word net does a lot of work in this", which further clarifies his meaning. This is in contrast to reporting which was out before his comments on Sunday, which said that "operating profit" -- which is revenue minus operating costs before debt payments are made -- was being split. The US also claimed, after his Sunday comments, that it was a split of operating profits. This difference matters because splitting the "net income" is basically the agreement as it already exists (there will be $0 net income during the first 15 years). While splitting the operating profit means deferring, or even writing off, half of the money that would have come to Canada as loan payments over the next 15 years. Today was the first time Carney answered a question about this since Sunday. But instead of just clarifying whether it was "net income" or "operating profit" being split, he said the split is "net revenue" -- which is a third thing entirely -- and then gave a definition which matches the definition of "operating profit". I'm pretty sure what happened here is that the PMO had an "oh shit" when Carney indicated net income was being split on Sunday because it always was operating profit being split. But, given Carney's background it's really hard to explain the error without making the PM look bad. So, instead of explaining, they thought since Carney only actually said "net" on Sunday, they could use the term "net revenue" today while giving the definition of "operating profit" -- hoping everyone is too dumb to realize that (a) Today's definition is not the definition of "net revenue"; and (b) Today's definition is not the same one he gave on Sunday... and the whole thing would disappear. Maybe they're right. Pointing out the discrepancies between "operating profit", "net income", and "net revenue" might be esoteric enough that Canadians at large won't notice or care. On the other hand, people don't like to be treated like they're dumb and that's exactly what this strategy does. So, I guess we'll see if this gets any traction...

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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk retweetledi
Canadian Coast Guard
Canadian Coast Guard@CoastGuardCAN·
Greetings from Iceland! ⚓ The CCGS Louis S. St-Laurent recently arrived in Reykjavik, where we’ll conduct exercises and take part in the Icelandic Coast Guard's 100th anniversary celebrations. #BravoZulu ! Photos 📷: MCpl Jon King, Canadian Armed Forces Combat Camera
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