@TheNarrenschiff I personally tried and used April and Prime Meridian. Previously used TT
English
Compounding Disinterest
1.3K posts
RTY green while oil is up and SPX/NDX are down? Weird. I wonder why? Oh wait it’s because $BE and $CRDO are up
Compounding Disinterest@CDisinterest
Pretty hilarious that the Russell is literally a meme stock index now
English
Pretty hilarious that the Russell is literally a meme stock index now
English
@MRatable Agreed. Everyone needs to read Engines that Move Markets
English
I truly don’t understand this argument.
Yes, there’s a shortage of supply right now. So people are investing trillions of dollars to grow the supply, and will continue to do so until supply exceeds demand.
Whether you call it a bubble or not, the end state is oversupply.
Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker
Absolutely true — I was meeting with those same telco equipment guys regularly in 2000. Also irrelevant to the point I was trying to make. Back then, supply could largely keep up with demand because there was massive underutilized wafer capacity coming out of the 1998 Asian crisis that could ramp quickly. The relatively quick supply response led to an overbuild, which caused the crash as the overbuild was largely debt funded which required an immediate ROI for the CLECs to service their debt. There is no comparable slack in the system today. Leading edge wafers and power are both structurally constrained, and neither can be turned on in a matter of months. That’s the core difference imo. And obviously the largest buyers of compute will have no trouble servicing their debt anytime in their near future. I might be wrong, we might be in a bubble, you might be right, time will tell. Good luck!
English
@SuperMugatu I think ironically you could argue this point is bullish for consultants. They may be the ones to implement AI for the long tail of companies. Issue is it’s more likely that new, AI native consulting providers achieve this, not the $ACN and $EPAM’s of the world
English
Supply will inevitably meet or exceed demand on a long enough timeline
Negligible Capital@negligible_cap
*GOOGLE, BLACKSTONE TO CREATE NEW AI CLOUD COMPANY: WSJ $GOOG and $BX are planning on launching a neocloud company. $BX will provide $5B in equity and $GOOG will provide TPUs as well as software and services. The new company is shooting for 500MW online by 2027
English
@patrick_oshag @colossusmag Also, David Greenspan of Slate Path
English
Who would you love us to profile in @colossusmag ?
Our sweet spot has been: incredible people who’ve not been covered or interviewed often.
Who would you suggest we try for?
English
Slate Path returns the last couple years have to be incredible
English
@west4thstreet Huge in WDC, SNDK, MU, WBD. Actually insane. AUM has prob 2-3x’d on returns alone
English
@CDisinterest Man, haven’t kept up with them but they always find a way to kick ass. How incredible has the recent past been?
English
English
@UpslopeCapital Better option would be to sell the whole damn thing and take us all out of our misery
English
Just need some over at MKTX to complete the trifecta of zero-bid defensives
English
BREAKING: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) discloses new long positions in $GLTB, $TEAM, and $HUBS
English
@TheNarrenschiff I actually think the next couple yrs of PE vintages could be excellent for this reason. So many companies left for dead for various reasons (AI, levered, neg revisions, too small for public investors to care)
English
@CDisinterest When leverage hits 1.5x you start telling the bankers you are interested in exploring strategic alternatives and then the sell side guys get the wink and nudge to raise PTs to try and win the business. Only half joking.
English
One common pickle for the compounder names that have been weak for a while is that they all seem to be 2.5-4x levered. Declining / poor incremental ROICs drove "balance sheet optimization" i.e. debt to drive acceptable ROEs. Now there's almost nothing strategic they can do.
English
@TheNarrenschiff 0DTE and revisions. Need to beat and raise for the buyside to care
English
@CDisinterest At 3-4x of leverage, paying that down to 1-2x with a little bit of multiple expansion because the balance sheet provides more flexibility gets decent. But that's a 3-4 years process (depending on capital intensity) for a teens CAGR (if you're right) and this is a 0DTE world.
English
@UpslopeCapital Can’t believe how great it’s been. Sold it in 2025 thinking it was done
English
CBOE running it back to the 2017 short-vol glory days
English
Memory stocks have outperformed OAI over the last ~18 months. Wild
English