Cameron Cooke

@flexibledragnet @grok Is David using the term counterfactual correctly?

@CGCooke You present nuclear as a credible solution to global clean electricity demand. This is based mostly on “announcements” and “plans”. All I’m doing is presenting the counterfactual that most of that will come to nothing and the world will be wind/solar/batteries. 🤷‍♂️

Ping @CGCooke

@flexibledragnet @grok Is David using the term ‘counterfactual’ correctly?

@CGCooke 😂😂😂 This is a bit rich coming from you. Let me give you an example. You present an article that “announces” the build of a series of nuclear plants (eg Oklo) and I present the counter factual “I’ll believe it when I see it”. Do you understand counterfactuals?

@flexibledragnet Do you have the ability to understand counterfactuals? Because all the evidence seems to suggest that you don’t. And that would explain a lot.

@CGCooke Thanks for confirming it’s not new capacity.

@flexibledragnet Just looking at the first of the 3 deals gives you 2609 MW of capacity vs the counterfactual. Signing a 20 year PPA is a choice is decision made by professional engineers. They have run the numbers, looked at all the options, and made a rational decision.

@CGCooke Like I keep saying. Nuclear is announcements, not new capacity. No new capacity before 2032 (except for updates).

@pbeisel There is nothing to argue, because he’s just wrong. Even if the gear adds zero drag, its weight alone results in 2.5-3x more fuel burn than what’s he’s claiming. That’s just physics. Either you don’t understand the physics, or you don’t want to admit he’s wrong.

@CGCooke I am not here to argue drag/weight dynamics with you, but I am saying unequivocally you are a complete clown to argue with Elon on this matter. Elon spend half his life on this exact issue if you consider what an EV is all about. Have a nice day.

This is Elon style. Ryanair says adding Starlink is a 2% hit on fuel cost, a SpaceX VP says, no 0.3%. And Elon is now asking for 0.1%!! 🚀

@swissTom124 @pbeisel @grok What is the mass of an IFC system install on a 737-800? Please do an itemised breakdown by component.

Starlink weight never gonna make that much of a difference. According to Grok: A commonly used engineering heuristic for 737-class aircraft is that ~1,000 kg added weight causes roughly 0.5–1% extra fuel burn on typical missions (shorter flights see less impact from weight, more from drag). Starlink system doesn't weight tonnes

@swissTom124 @pbeisel @grok What is the percentage increase induced drag per 100kg for a 65 Ton TOW 737-800?

@pbeisel Induced drag is proportional to the square of lift. Even if the antenna has zero mass, and zero drag, everything else brings you north of 100KG. For TOW of 65 tons, that’s a 0.3% increase in induced drag. Stuff you just know, if you actually study engineering.

@CGCooke Yea got it the guy that builds rockets is clueless about these dynamics, 🤡

@flexibledragnet @roobar1984 Google is investing in a developer of Solar, Batteries, Wind (Clean power) in addition to Nuclear (Clean power). Are you forgetting the NextEra and Elementl PPAs from this year? How does this contradict the claim that including nuclear in the mix reduces total cost?

Ping @CGCooke @roobar1984

@flexibledragnet @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill ‘Pro electricity economics’ implies: 1. Letting consumers choose 2. Valuing consumer choice over a theoretical model. 3. Knowing the difference between Capex and Capital flows.

@CGCooke @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill I’m not sure why you keep confusing pro electricity economics with anti nuclear. 🤷‍♂️

.@ShackelWill, have you sat down & prepared a gantt chart from here to commercial operation of australia's first nuke? no, of course you haven't. i have. not my job to stick up for gov't, but AEMO sets out a very credible plan — barely changed since angus taylor was minister.

@roobar1984 @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill It’s listed as $228B USD in the Frank Knight report. However, it’s just a number you would know off the top of your head if you closely followed the DC space.

@CGCooke @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Would you mind sharing a source for those numbers you've quoted?

@flexibledragnet @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill You have confused Capital Flows with Capex. Capital flow: • Real estate investment • M&A transactions • Buying or selling DC companies Inflated by the purchase of (Australian) AirTrunk by Blackstone Capex: How much is actually being invested building DC’s. (Over $200B)

@CGCooke @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Sure. Knight Frank Global Data Centre Report. content.knightfrank.com/research/2982/…

@roobar1984 @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill They want to buy as much cheap *clean* energy as they can get their hands on. I’m not sure why you are struggling with the idea that clean power includes nuclear. Of that nuclear helps stabilise Europe’s (Including Ireland & Denmarks) grid.

@flexibledragnet @CGCooke @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill So, data centre owners want to buy as much cheap RE electricity as they can get their hands on, and as little FF or nuclear power as they can get away with. Turns out that Adam Smith's "invisible hand" works fine in our grid. Isn't economics wonderful! 🤑

@flexibledragnet @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Also ~10% Nuclear. I’m not sure you keep confusing pro nuclear with anti clean energy.

@roobar1984 @CGCooke @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Yep. Lots of data centres in Texas. Lots of renewables.

@flexibledragnet @roobar1984 @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Would you mind sharing a source for that graph? MSFT’s US based DC capex was north of $20B USD for 2024. The global DC spend was north of $200B USD in 2024.

@roobar1984 @CGCooke @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Funnily enough, Australia was global #2 for data centre investment in 2024. So that’s another bullshit argument disposed of. Interesting to note #9 also bans nuclear. Where is France?

@roobar1984 @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill You keep going back to arguments saying that a theoretical model says X. While ignoring the behaviour of (in your words) ‘hyper rational’ consumers. As an engineer, I’m used to dealing with conflicts between my models and reality. But I know the reality is what counts.

@CGCooke @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill The question you should be asking is whether nuclear power will be price-competitive against hybrid wind/solar + battery PPA offers. In Australia, the evidence is now clear from both GenCost and NEM data. Nuclear is way too costly.

@roobar1984 @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Latency isn’t an issue for LLMs. Models take 5+ seconds to fully generate a response so 100’s of ms is meaningless. Thats why all the training and inference is in the US ☢️. Latency is so little of a problem that Meta and Apple don’t even bother with DCs in Australia.

@CGCooke @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill Because data centres, whether hyperscale or not, want to be physically close to their customers to avoid comms latency. So, AWS customers in Sydney use the AWS data centre in Sydney, not the US.

@roobar1984 @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill I’m glad that you agree that Including nuclear in your mix, minimises risk and reduces your overall power cost.

@CGCooke @flexibledragnet @PaulMan77121652 @simonahac @ShackelWill It's called "averaging down" their power costs. All large industrial users do the same. They also spread risk. They get the full advantage of lower wind & solar prices and pay for gas, nuclear, or coal only when they must.