For various reasons, September has been hard. Thanks to @XanderArmstrong @ClassicFM this morning for restoring my soul (Widor, Barber AND Tchaikovsky)
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️
997 posts
Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️
@CHolmesClimate
Polar Climate Scientist researching Antarctic sea ice @BAS_news; mum of two. All views my own.
St Neots, England Katılım Haziran 2010
998 Takip Edilen863 Takipçiler
@James_Peterson @brian_bilston so he did! (Problem temporarily fixed!)
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t's hard to wrte up analyss on Antarctc sea ce wthout an '' key...
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ retweetledi
Interviewed by @TimesRadio today on ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice.
To be welcomed onto live radio as a person who stammers, and for stammering to not be the subject of the interview or indeed a big deal to anybody involved, feels pretty good indeed.
Climate Centre@ClimateCentreUK
"If the ocean decides to release the heat to the atmosphere like this year, that leads to more rapid atmosphere warming," @kaitlinnaughten tells @alexisconran. She warns record sea ice loss in Antarctica has the potential to further warm our oceans. @TimesRadio | @BAS_News
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ retweetledi
Today is #EarthOvershootDay
🌍 Today marks the date when “humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year!”
Basically we’ve used all of Earth resources for the year and now we depete it!😢
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@ClimateDann @ClimateVikki And March 2022 East Antarctic would be in there too?
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Last year we published a list of the top ten most extreme heatwaves around the world over observational history. Is our list already out of date? @ClimateVikki I think we should do the analysis? Paper here science.org/doi/full/10.11…
Extreme Temperatures Around The World@extremetemps
South America is living one of the extreme events the world has ever seen Unbelievable temperatures up to 38.9C in the Chilean Andine areas in mid winter ! Much more than what Southern Europe just had in mid summer at the same elevation: This event is rewriting all climatic books
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@edoddridge PS Ed- great work! I know I've been moaning about 1 in however many million, and maybe/probably being too nuanced about all this- but it's really important that this CRAZY anomaly is getting attention it deserves #climatecrisis
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ retweetledi
The current level of Antarctic sea ice is beyond anything in the last 120 years.
#Antarctica #ClimateCrisis
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@edoddridge @micefearboggis I'd hunch not- recon is atmos-data based and the anomalies we are seeing now reflect ocean conditions? e.g. there's evidence of low sea ice in 60s and 70s that isn't fully captured in these recons- but even those not nearly as dramatic as now nsidc.org/arcticseaicene…
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@micefearboggis It certainly will. It’ll be one hell of a test for their reconstruction.
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#Antarctic #seaice : GREAT video disentangling the jargon and some of the issues around sigmas etc. (similar vibe to my 🧵 but easier to follow!) - I agree that '1 in ... million' is
✅v. helpful to conceptualize
⁉️ pushing what the data can tell us
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@rail_guns Yes- and that being a 'motorist' is some profound identity, rather than an often-sadly-necessary consequence of economic and infrastructure planning.
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Appalling lack of vision that car dependency a force of nature that we should not just accept but actively nurture.
Also absolutely wild he wants to fight a general election on that incredibly depressing vision for the UK.
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@rdlarter @kevpluck 2) on winds; yes and no. Last year's La Nina and deep Amundsen Sea Low consistent with pattern of change in Amundsen/Bellingshausen- but the remarkable lack of refreeze seems out of the bounds of what we could explain with winds? See excellent zacklabe.com/climate-viz-of…
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ retweetledi
#Antarctica is currently missing an area of ice bigger than Greenland. It's clear that we're seeing an extraordinary event unfolding.
So, you've seen the graphs: what do they mean?
Find out in our @ConversationUK article with @CHolmesClimate
theconversation.com/antarctica-is-…
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Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ retweetledi
@ZLabe @micefearboggis @Dr_Gilbz @CHolmesClimate Here’s a really useful story on Antarctic sea ice from @readfearn to add to the thread of explainers theguardian.com/world/2023/jul…
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@nathanaelmelia I agree with you - but "not part of the distribution" because we assume the distribution has changed, or because the distribution as-is isn't well sampled (latter is point about extreme event statistics, former is about climate change)?
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On sigma. If the event is not part of the distribution you are comparing it to, then your sigma or return period are utterly meaningless.
Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️@CHolmesClimate
#Antarctic #seaice there's widespread discussion about the sea ice anomaly and what it means statistically and physically, and some good discussions, but I think some key graphs need showing *together* so here goes (1/15 🧵)
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But (back to the top) the exact number isn't really important! (15/15)
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Next, to go from '5-sigma' to '1 in 7.5 million years': we have to assume a "normal distribution"; i.e. that the probability of something (sea ice) having a certain value follows a certain set of rules. If sea ice doesn't, then '1 in 7.5 million' could be way off. (14/15)
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#Antarctic #seaice there's widespread discussion about the sea ice anomaly and what it means statistically and physically, and some good discussions, but I think some key graphs need showing *together* so here goes (1/15 🧵)
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