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@CTB_yuB
Appreciate the little things in life: good food, clean water, and decentralised, permissionless, immutable blockchains.
Katılım Temmuz 2022
103 Takip Edilen183 Takipçiler
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While valuations in the US remain a concern for many investors, in my view they are justified by the macro fundamentals of all-time high (and rising) margins and tight credit spreads. Those two variables are the independent variables in my regression below, which suggests that the equity risk premium should be 4.0% (instead of the historical average of 5.0%). Based on that regression, the fair value for the S&P 500 index is 7455 and rising.

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$MSTR (Weekly)
Here is the only chart video you will need to watch in order to learn how to trade $MSTR
Bottom signal!! And stage 2 breakout! 🔥
We found this stage 2 using the screener. I am long. And running Alpha Stops (Dots that help with stop placement)
This video is an absolute clinic in technical analysis. Learn this is you want to crush the next bull run.
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@Guy_026 @WhiteWhaleLabs @ElBuscador007 @BernieSanders @WhiteWhaleLabs @Guy_026 US is a constitutional representative democracy
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@WhiteWhaleLabs @CTB_yuB @ElBuscador007 @BernieSanders Theyre so dumb they really think we're a democracy. They dont understand the EC.
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@WhiteWhaleLabs @ElBuscador007 @BernieSanders The point is that they make up the majority of voters…and we live in a democracy where the majority is supposed to get what they want via the power of their vote. If 77% of a democracy want something, they should get it. That’s the whole point of a democracy.
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@ElBuscador007 @BernieSanders To illustrate the absurdity of the poll. Let’s go ask a bunch if people who’ve never acheived anything more than middle class to weigh in on economic policy. Might as well ask boat captains how to pilot a space shuttle. Better?
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We are in total alignment with Jordi's view. In fact, all of our purchases since we moved from 100% in cash to 100% invested reflects Jordi's abundance vs scarcity theme as the dominant investment factor today. This theme is what you want to focus on during a market consolidation. 2026 when all is said and done will be all about AI and secondary themes such at Bitcoin and the Blockchain.
Jordi Visser@jvisserlabs
Stocks completed a record setting rally back to all-time highs. It was led again by semis and the AI capex names. AI remains the driver of the economy and market but during the last month the focus has been on the rapid ascent of Anthropic and their parabolic revenue. In this week's video I go through how their success is driving adoption but is also driving AI to the physical constraints of compute and power. Watch here: youtu.be/sZU5Y0n3YwY
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This is literally the most extreme momentum event in 40 years of recorded data. The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions. That is the fastest oversold-to-overbought transition in the Nasdaq 100's 40-year recorded history. The previous fastest was 25 sessions after Liberation Day last year. The historical average is 60+ sessions. Benzinga
According to Bespoke Investment Group, this also marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928. Yahoo Finance
The forward return data is actually quite bullish long-term. Across all 44 historical episodes where the Nasdaq gained 11% or more in 10 sessions, the 12-month forward return averaged +24%, with a median of +30%, and a win rate of 80%. At 6 months, the win rate is 74%. Benzinga
But the near-term pullback is almost guaranteed. The average maximum drawdown following these signals was −18.39% — meaning while the 12-month destination is historically higher, the journey involves deep, punishing pullbacks that can severely impact over-leveraged portfolios. Ainvest
The key number to watch: Based on the 6 most comparable historical analogues — COVID recovery (−8%), Liberation Day 2025 (−4%), Fed pivot 2018 (−6%), Asian crisis 1997 (−7%) — the most probable near-term pullback is 3-8% within the next 2-4 weeks. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is the most likely trigger. After that consolidation, the historical data overwhelmingly favors a resumption of the bull trend.
The S&P 500 has experienced average intra-year declines of roughly 14% since 1990, even in years that finish strongly positive — and the average correction (10-20% decline) lasts just 17 days. U.S. Bank
A pullback here isn't a disaster; it's the historical norm and historically the best re-entry point.
Wes and I are extremely well positioned in the leaders.
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@IncomeSharks Hey shark - couldn’t one interpret low volume as meaning not many people bought… hence there’s still many waiting on the sidelines. Wouldn’t a true ‘lock-out rally’ be one with low volume, as it implies most people missed it and are still awaiting a pullback?
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@brian_armstrong @ilblackdragon Genuine question for any $NEAR connoisseurs.
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@brian_armstrong Is this a threat to $NEAR? @ilblackdragon why would institutions etc use $NEAR when the most famous crypto company in the world has its own agentic infra?
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@EricBalchunas Much of this effect will be explained by socioeconomic differences between those who play tennis regularly and those who don’t. On average, tennis is played much more frequently by the middle class, which we already know live a lot longer than the working class.
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@AnalyticsRun That’s a very good question - I have not figured out the answer yet and plan to rely heavily on @cburniske again
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To the wise @2xdog I find that you’ve engaged and been vocal a lot, maybe my lucky day. For the potential upcoming cycle and if you were a betting man- which coins may be likely to follow sols path?
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I'm giving a research talk at @NVIDIAGTC tomorrow, March 18 @ 9am PT! Virtual registration is free.
As Jensen confirmed on Monday, 2026 is the year of the Claws. I'll talk about rethinking market primitives for an agentic economy with early experiments from @near_ai Agent Marketplace & IronClaw.
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