Candid Macro

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Candid Macro

Candid Macro

@CandidMacro

Worked for some of the biggest asset managers who never let me run with my multibagger investment ideas. Here to give them to you. Not investment advice.

Katılım Mayıs 2026
53 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
Is anyone actually buying this deal rn? Am I the only retard out there who thinks this is all theater to make oil incredibly hard to invest in rn despite it probably being a strong performer for the next 6 months? Also, if this deal is legit why is it going to take 5 days to sign. Didn’t realize DocuSign took so long to get to Iran…
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
I don’t want to be a buzzkill, but this isn’t the deal. It’s a memorandum of understanding. We still haven’t seen the actual text.
Open Source Intel@Osint613

NOW: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
@zerohedge lol you’re funny- most Christians won’t waste our time with this movie…
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Lukas Ekwueme
Lukas Ekwueme@ekwufinance·
Rick Rule: The world has systematically underinvested in oil. - The oil industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by >$1B/day - This underinvestment will reduce future oil production Oil is a cyclical industry, and a sustained period of underinvestment will lead to lower production in the future... we are still in the underinvestment period despite high prices. In addition to the massive underinvestment: - The industry has to fix oil infrastructure impacted by the Iran war - The world will have to refill their SPRs - Countries will expand their SPRs Hormuz or no Hormuz, the supply/demand picture for oil is favorable over the long term.
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
I’d probably buy at $80. The space part of spacex will be a money pit for a while but Starlink holds a lot of promise if they can get monthly internet prices closer to parity with competitors. Wouldn’t be surprised if they could get roughly 10% of the addressable market in the U.S. doubling starlink subs with obviously a lot of opportunities internationally.
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
I don't think the peace still gets signed tomorrow I think Trump is so narcissistic that he's wishcasting to the entire world that it happens on his birthday
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
Let me get this straight the DXY is only up 1.55% during a time when EM/International is selling gold for dollars to buy oil. Additionally, there’s a newfound belief that rates are potentially going up from here which would further strengthen the dollar? I know the gold bid has been suppressed by this oil situation- if anything this is providing temporary reprieve for the dollar that will not prove to be long lasting. I think gold goes lower from here as I don’t see a resolution to Iran yet- but I would consider being a big buyer of gold and lowly indebted miners if/when gold hits $3,500-3600 range.
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
@Teslaconomics Agreed he’s going to sell starlink to other galaxies who will pay us in REEs. If SpaceX goes to $100T anytime soon it means our currency has completely collapsed genius…
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Teslaconomics
Teslaconomics@Teslaconomics·
SpaceX is a $100T company trading at $2T today
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
Remember when the media was touting about how Russia was about to lose the war in Ukraine? It’s been how many years now? 😂
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
At this point my distrust for the U.S. narrative has hit rock bottom. I’m waiting for a fake electronic signing. It would provide some time for the US to find another solution before markets turn on them. Also, the media can push the narrative of “well we’re giving Iran 30 days to open it so this takes time” so during that interim the SPR will still be drawn down. Then on day 20 when there’s still no feasible alternative, it’ll be spun as Iran “went against said MOU” when they probably never signed it in the first place, making them look more like dishonest negotiators and reason for Trump to escalate massively before tanks hit bottom. At that point, it’ll be a little too late. Why wouldn’t the U.S. do a fake signing? Credibility is already at an all time low and the downside is the same. The reality is, the U.S. is not paying them out and won’t let them enrich, so escalation will be the only move or give Iran the greatest deal they’ve ever seen. Trump will not allow that to happen, he’s too stubborn.
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
@calvinfroedge Sounds like a movie script…. Probably because it’s all really poorly written theater.
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🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
So the agreement is being signed digitally at Trump's birthday party at the UFC fight Am I getting this right?
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Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump just DROPPED this post from Pakistan that a DEAL is possibly 24 HOURS AWAY from being finalized with Iran "Electronic signing of the peace deal" 👀 47 is doing it! He is the peacemaker!
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Adrian Shen
Adrian Shen@ShenResearch·
SpaceX refused to take $967,815 of my money today. I tried to buy $1,000,000 of $SPCX at IPO. The largest offering in human history was so oversubscribed they could only fill 831 of my 8,000 shares. It's officially harder to give Elon Musk money than to earn it. I'll take my 831 shares to the grave. I own a piece of the company taking humanity to Mars. Congrats @elonmusk and everyone at @SpaceX.
Adrian Shen tweet mediaAdrian Shen tweet media
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
The only way I can comfortably play this now is to buy a put option two weeks out as a hedge for my long position, doing the math on the stock I picked it would have to go up ~2.10% to break even and my downside is ~4%. I’m comfortable with that with a potential 10% upside in two weeks and probably 30-40% more on top of that in a couple of months.
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🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
Fully agree and I don't think it will age poorly It's absurd that oil didn't even make nominal all time highs in the greatest supply shock in history We've become incredible can kickers
Quipus Capital@QuipusCapital

This might age poorly, but I remain bullish on oil (and incrementally more so with each passing day) until there's a real reopening of Hormuz, independently of what the parties involved declare. The reason is simple: outside of blowing up other Gulf infra and escalating, Iran's only leverage is Hormuz, and this leverage increases with each day that the world is in deficit. This means anything BUT opening favors Iran, and is bullish oil. This includes declaring that there's a deal and even signing a deal. The only thing that matters is reopening the Strait.

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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
@MaxPapazov @GoldForecast It’ll probably happen in a few years to ensure this doesn’t happen again. But in the interim we’re not going back to $60 just yet.
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Correlation Economics
Correlation Economics@GoldForecast·
At $86 oil, the oil producer space is now 30% overvalued.
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Candid Macro
Candid Macro@CandidMacro·
Like I said last week- get ready for tacos, gas lighting, and all the theatrics. Let’s use some common sense here. If these negotiations were going according to plan would we have all the lights and glitter?
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iran says talks have now "completely stalled" due to Trump's positions and actions, saying that as long as Trump does not accept all of Iran's demands in the draft, the 60-day negotiation period has no chance of beginning and Iran won't sign, per a source close to Iran's Ghalibaf. Vance's new statements say the deal involves "no cash" and "no funds released for signing," while Iran's draft requires the US to release $24 billion in frozen funds and pay Iran $300 billion in war reparations before Iran signs anything. There clearly isn't an agreement.

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Keşfet

@zerohedge @Teslaconomics @calvinfroedge @EricLDaugh @JaeronMerc @ShenResearch @grok @elonmusk