CapOrbit

Out of syllabus like we would say in college days. Petronas will turn from an exporter to an importer as the war in the Middle East continues... theedgemalaysia.com/node/798666

The Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Cargo ships are taking longer routes. And Mumbai's biggest public infrastructure projects are now feeling it. Contractors on THREE projects - Sewri-Worli Connector, Metro Line 6, Thane bullet train depot - have invoked force majeure, warning that LPG shortages & rising material costs could delay deadlines & push up costs. The @IndianExpress' Mumbai team has been tracking the ripple effects of this conflict across the city, from restaurants curtailing hours & menus, to migrants boarding trains home because they couldn't find a gas cylinder. Now it's hitting the city's biggest infrastructure push in decades. @sabahvir reports indianexpress.com/article/cities…

I sat down with my team two weeks ago to discuss what we can do that AI cannot replace. The archive we spent two decades building - my lifes work - has already been stolen by AI. Anything that can be indexed has already been extracted. RAG has made extraction continuous and invisible. What remains is what hasn’t been created. On‑ground reporting, digging, interpretive opinion attached to a trusted identity, live community moments that require simultaneous presence... these are expensive to produce and impossible to simulate. These are Realtime. I've come to the realisation that AEO and GEO will not solve the problem. Realtime is the last defensible moat because the present is being generated every moment. Monetization lies in the period between when things happen and AI captures it... If you gate it to prevent capture. Full analysis at Reasoned (link in comment)

#Vietnam seeks jet fuel supplies amid Middle East Crisis My special report on Vietnam's jet fuel production, imports and the current situation. Vietnam produces ~25% of its jet fuel consumption after years of explosive air travel fueled by massive tourism booms, surging domestic flights, and relentless economic growth. The war with Iran has disrupted supplies from the Middle East and caused a tripling of jet fuel prices (hitting peaks over US$200/barrel), which are much more volatile than standard fuels as I'll explain later. Vietnam has enough jet fuel until the end of March, so if no new supplies are obtained, air travel could start to have issues in early April. The CAAV has already warned airlines (Vietnam Airlines, VietJet, etc.) to prepare for flight cuts/reductions starting April. As a result of the crisis, China banned exports of jet fuel outright and Thailand did the same except for exports to Laos and Myanmar. Vietnam's PM Chinh held phone talks with Chinese and Thai leaders to request some jet fuel sales to Vietnam as a special measure amid the crisis. There are no reports yet about the results of those talks. Singapore and Malaysia are still exporting jet fuel and Vietnam is trying to secure some supplies from them, but everybody in the region is also bidding aggressively for those limited barrels. Vietnam Airlines also just opened a big international tender for jet fuel supply at overseas airports for 2026-2028 (deadline end of March). Vietnam imports ~75% of the jet fuel it consumes. Before the crisis, ~60% of imports came from China and Thailand (Vietnam was China's 3rd-largest jet fuel buyer last year). The rest came mainly from Singapore. The big importers are Petrolimex Aviation and Skypec (Vietnam Air Petrol). Vietnam has two oil refineries: Dung Quat and Nghi Son. They do produce Jet fuel A-1 (aviation kerosene), but they're under heavy pressure to crank out more gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. The Dung Quat refinery produces ~5,300 barrels per day of jet fuel, projected to increase to ~13,100 bpd once the current upgrade/expansion project ends in early 2028. The Nghi Son refinery produces an estimated range of 10,000 to 20,000 bpd of jet fuel, so I estimate an average of ~15,000 bpd (The Nghi Son refinery doesn't give jet fuel stats, but they say it's about 8-15% of crude output, so it's 10,000 to 20,000 bpd). This gives a jet fuel domestic production of ~20,000 bpd average. Vietnam's jet fuel use before the crisis is estimated to be at around 80-85,000 bpd, so imports are about ~75% on average. 🔷Vietnam's Jet fuel use: ~85,000 bpd 🔷Domestic refineries: ~20,000 bpd (23%) 🔷Imports needed: ~65,000 bpd (77%) Another reason jet fuel prices are much more volatile than other fuels in crisis situations: it's far more complicated to store long-term, so strategic reserves are limited. Jet fuel short-term storage (days/weeks) in proper airport tanks is fine, but long-term storage (months +) in bulk tanks requires extra steps like biocides, dry tanks and regular testing. Jet fuel (Jet A-1, basically highly refined kerosene) is more complicated than gasoline or diesel. It's not just "fuel"; it has super strict specs for aviation safety, and that makes storage, handling, and supply chains trickier. Key reasons: ▪️Oxidation and aging: It reacts with oxygen over time, forming gums, resins, acids, and particulates that can clog filters, nozzles, and engines. This happens faster with heat, light, or metal contact. ▪️Water contamination: Jet fuel holds dissolved water; temperature swings cause condensation. Water freezes at high altitudes (~-47°C), risking line blockages/flameouts. It also promotes microbial growth at the water-fuel interface, creating sludge/corrosion. ▪️Microbial growth: Bugs thrive in the interface; untreated fuel can foul systems in weeks/months. ▪️Strict purity standards: Aviation fuel must meet exact specs (tiny contaminant traces max). Poor storage can render batches unusable—airlines/airports can't risk it. That's why parked planes during COVID had major fuel issues—many needed draining or treatment. So, jet fuel is a sensitive commodity that is kept in short supply, since it's difficult to store, and in a time of crisis, it's the first fuel to run out and prices reflect that fast.

'The gap between what people earn and what life costs has to be filled. Increasingly, it is being filled with borrowed money. India's non-housing household debt as a share of income now exceeds that of US and China.' India's middle class is under strain. bbc.com/news/articles/…

For days, there's been a question in our minds: Is Mumbai's LPG crisis quietly pushing migrant workers to head home? Construction sites are running. Factories are open. The city offered no clear answer. So my colleague @ishiwrites did something simple, but hard... 🧵(1/7) @IndianExpress

The world had already started diluting the stance on ESG. More to come. In governments in europe there was some push to call defense cos. As ESG compliant. As the line from the Fatboy Slim song goes "you've come a long way, baby"

A growing body of legitimate science has been exploring the benefits of red light therapy for several conditions, from ADHD, to retinal degeneration, to dermatology go.nature.com/3NoGcbx

@Babygravy9 Here’s a good explanatory article on how we should interpret findings of this new study: msn.com/en-us/health/o…

This is a fantastic piece. Although written from US pov it has important lessons for India. Building a mfg ecosystem means building an embedded knowledge base & you have to do it in scale & with full stack. @cvkrishnan you might find this interesting.

@karanb_k @uptickr @EntropyChase Nicely done!!

Cc @uptickr @CapOrbit @EntropyChase

#livingroombassist some Iron Maiden time this weekend. Bass play along on Rime of the Ancient Mariner (solo)

I am sorry everyone, we all know who is coming after me. Maybe goodbyes are in order.

Two kilograms of soil from a Maharashtra village helped a company develop probiotic products — and brought Rs 68 lakh back to the community. The payment, made under India’s biodiversity sharing rules, is now encouraging villagers to invest in protecting local ecosystems and biodiversity. 🖊️ @himanshujourno downtoearth.org.in/wildlife-biodi…

The puzzle is manifest also in the correlations (annual and quarterly) between GDP & these macro-indicators: strong under the old methodology (1995–2011) and weak or absent post-2011 after the revision 5/

A striking puzzle motivates the paper On average, nearly every major macro indicator— exports, credit, electricity, taxes, corporate sales, IIP- shows growth slowdown in 2012-23 compared to 2005-12 but official GDP growth declines only marginally 4/

.@abhishekecon @FelmanJosh & me in @IndianExpress on 20 years of India's GDP mis-estimation (indianexpress.com/article/opinio…) Full @PIIE research paper (piie.com/publications/w…) Main finding: real GDP growth over-estimated 1.5-2% b/w 2012-24; & under-estimated 1-1.5% b/w 2005-12 🧵

Paper traders: this war will be over soon and prices will fall. Physical traders: a barrel of UAE oil is now worth $140. reuters.com/markets/commod…

The highlighted line from the below release suggests the DOE/Treasury has a curve trade on, -front end and +back end WTI energy.gov/articles/unite…

I normally favour infrastructure projects in a clash with environmental concerns. At the same time - the track record is now clear. In recent times Maharashtra has delivered very expensive but poor quality infra with modest impact. The real purpose is not infra creation.