Capital Competent

TRUST YOUR PROCESS!! (Less than $500 away from $10,000) youtu.be/pH5Kz807SCg?si… via @YouTube

@NotA_Bull Dollar cost average, you can’t predict the future!

Are you currently buying the dips, or are you sitting on cash waiting for a bigger correction?

Dollar cost averaging is the best way to buy stocks! Don’t go all in on $Meta in one day, it can go down much further!!!

@DeepIceValue Dollar cost average! Don’t go over 10% of portfolio.

Are you buying $META today, or waiting for another dip?

My $TSLA puts are up 50%. Do I hold or do I sell? 🤔

@DividendTalks The overall state of the market lol. It’s going to keep going down but that doesn’t mean stop buying!

$META: 20x P/E, ~30% growth. What am I missing?

@gnoble79 Great post!

Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year. And fewer last year than the year before. That should tell you everything you need to know. 2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history. And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets. France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%. BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month. The brand is in FREEFALL. Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%. And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings. Let me say that differently: Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns. The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service." So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday. Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE. The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight. And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure. So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale. On 365 times earnings. Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards. I think this stock goes down 90% from here. Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects. A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists. I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something: When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING. I can see the seams.

@ValueAnalyst1 Now they’ve moved on to terafab 😭

$TSLA needs ~$100B to develop robotaxis It doesn’t have it.

@Buncahn I think people are starting to catch on!

Elon has to keep promising increasingly insane and "ambitious" projects because the more grounded in reality, the more he's actually gotta prove it (see: cybercab and optimus) so with something like Terafab, he can now effectively fully move the goalposts so that inevitably when cybercab and optimus don't come close to projected scale or timelines, the Terafab will have effectively bought him enough time to keep the whole thing going. what a big fucking joke

@StockOptionCole Completely agree

$TSLA is going to be a $250 stock again this year

@eyeofbass Actually, people think all these projects are just free and have zero costs associated 😭

It’s hilarious. Tesla $TSLA stock trends down, Helon tosses the sheep fresh manure, the sheep get excited, start eating, and are positive again. 😂 It’s pathetic.

Boring pick but I like $HD (Home Depot) might start a position 🤔

@dividendology Oh it can go much lower, more opportunity!!

$META IS NOW UNDER $600 A SHARE. Their forward P/E is now at 19.98. How low do you think the valuation can go?

@dvdcompounders Agreed! I just bought a couple, if it keeps going down -> load the boat 🫡

@Cap_Competent Already added to $V last week. Such an incredible business at a great entry point

$HD and $V are starting to look attractive! Might start a position soon 👀

@Leo_Traydes How so?

I feel like Tesla $TSLA is one of the best opportunities in the market right now

@StockMKTNewz $tesla should be down much more…

This is how far the Magnificent 7 is down from their 52 WEEK HIGHS

Hedging your positions allow you to thrive in markets like these! My puts have appreciated now I have capital to go shopping! :)

Stocks on sale???