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@CapitalTechno
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🚨BREAKING🚨 BNP PARIBAS, WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT, AND LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP JUST BOUGHT 7.7M SHARES OF $IREN 🔥🔥🔥

Speculative Post $IREN: Earnings Call Transcript Notes Some other people may see Dan Roberts, IREN CEO, as over confident or "over playing" his hand, but I disagree. Having studied most if not all @danroberts0101 interviews, it's clear to me that Dan is very ambitions in actions/planning but conservative in words. He drags negotiations out for maximum flexibility but will firmly commit when the time comes. Dan does not hype, and when he says something, it's backed by real discussions. Whether or not the negotiations succeed, we do not know, but Dan speaks in terms of concrete events. Therefore, I find it worthwhile to scrutinize statements made in the earnings call. In particularly, this earnings call had statements that don't make sense to an untrained eye and deviated from previous calls. I will directly quote the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript. You can cmd-f / ctrl-f to verify context: finance.yahoo.com/quote/IREN/ear… (2) Backdrop Right now, IREN investors' biggest questions is: "how will IREN get better contract economics?" or in other words "how are the negotiations going?". @Umbisam pointed out that hyperscalers have the negotiation power because: 1. They might be a cartel to keep prices low. 2. There's only a few of them will billion dollar pockets to buy at the scale which IREN needs to sell. I directionally agree that HS have an inordinate amount of negotiation power but not for the reason @Umbisam pointed out. The main reason is that HS have their own DC buildout and IaaS operations teams. HBM is subjected to points 1 & 2 that @Umbisam makes, but crucially HS cannot make their own HBM. I believe the first MSFT deal had lower topline because: 1. Anchor tenant for site and the entire company. 2. Unproven uptime risk mean that MSFT would use IREN's bare metal GPUs for internal projects instead re-sell them as an extension of Azure compute. If IREN delivers, it would not have to do this risk discount for subsequent HS customers. However the true unlock comes from how ORCL achieved higher topline for bare metal GPUs. You see OpenAI, Palantir, Tiktok all use ORCL bare metal GPUs (1) and it's not because ORCL is better than MSFT, AWS, or GCP. It's because OpenAI, Palantir, Tiktok are all very capable at managing their own software infrastructure and ORCL provides just enough software (bare metal GPUs + Kubernetes). This enables ORCL to split the the HS margins with them. Knowing this backdrop, let's scrutinize the earnings transcript for clues on what type of customer $IREN is negotiating with and what are the dynamics. Time to DC Previously IREN had spoken about time to power. This was the first earnings call when IREN spoke about time to DC. "time to power is critical, but time to data centers is actually the more limiting factor" (2) So there's 1+ customer whose needs are pretty urgent that it's not longer about time to power (years) but time to datacenter (months). After all, IREN has "idle" power capacity and can build DCs within 6-9 months but the customer is concerned about time to datacenter meaning they need something pretty urgently. Air Cooled "We're also seeing hyperscalers and leading enterprises actively pursue both liquid and air-cooled GPU deployments as they work to accelerate rollouts. The increased focus on air-cooled deployments aligns extremely well with our existing footprint of 810MW of already operational air-cooled data centers." (2) Previously IREN had focused on retrofit talks for their Canada DCs. For Childress, TX, IREN-MSFT went with liquid cooled. Now all of a sudden, IREN is talking about their air-cooled deployemnts within their 810MW footprint. Canada only has 160MW so the 810MW must include the Childress DCs. A rationale for the sudden change is that the customer who is concerned with time to DC sees that the standing air-cooled DCs would bring compute up fast enough to meet their needs. Previously IREN had mainly mentioned hyperscalers for their Texas sites. But now IREN is including "leading enterprises". Hyperscalers have planned compute for at least their core business and can sell more or less of their lower priority services if they don't have enough compute. In other words, it's okay for Hyperscalers to not meet some of their lower priority demand. This means Hyperscalers don't need to deviate from their specs and probably wouldn't accept the air-cooled DCs at Childress. This leads me to conclude the customer who is discussing air-cooled at Childress is a leading enterprise instead of a Hyperscaler. There are very few leading enterprises that are not hyperscalers and have 300MW IT of unplanned demand. That's at least a $10-15B five year contract or $2-3B/year depending on GPU type. Multi-Billion Dollar Software Customer "one of the contracts we are negotiating at the moment is a multi-billion-dollar contract where we need to bring a software solution" (2) What kind of software could this be? I'll be the first to admit that IREN is not strong in Cloud software. Dan admits his own view on software: "we continue to think that it is likely to be one of the areas in this space that gets commoditized the fastest". The software likely referred to is Kubernetes for Bare Metal GPUs. You see, what the customer needs IREN to do is setup Kubernetes so that it abstracts away the datacenter. Kubernetes is open sourced by Google so what IREN needs to optimally layout/design the datacenter and configure Kubernetes to reflect the datacenter layout design. In other words, this is not really software. IREN is using Google software and providing the network fabric, storage architecture, cluster topology. This is not easy because there are thousands of connections via networking cables and complex rack/row/failure domain. However this is not a software problem but rather a datacenter design problem. Google's Kubernetes is the software that handles the complexity and IREN just needs to design and setup the datacenter correctly. Additionally, IREN will need observability to monitor when to physically have data center technicians service end of life or degraded parts. This software falls within the realm of IaaS for bare metal, not PaaS or SaaS. Whereas HS can handle everything including providing the DC specs and setting up the hardware side of Kubernetes, some leading enterprises are pure software. Some AI Natives might even be better than HS at software but because they don't have the years of operating DCs. IREN's DC team from Rackforce has operated DCs for over a decade (3) and now they have knowledge transfer from Microsoft on setting up an state of the art training DC. Thus there is no worry that IREN all of a sudden needs to do "software". This is IaaS software that is more about datacenter and hardware knowledge, not PaaS/SaaS software which IREN is not good in. The Right Customer "The focus is on choosing the right long-term partnerships that support durable platform-level growth" (2) IREN has recognized that being plan B for HS is not the optimal way to achieve great economics. Although subsequent contracts with HS will have better economics, the real unlock comes from working with an AI native that needs scale on the magnitude of 4.5GWs. Given all the clues above, I hate that I arrive at the same conclusion as some pumpers. The pumpers got the timing wrong but the client they guess might be right. 1. Who all of a sudden has 300MW IT of unplanned demand they need within 6 months (time to DC)? 1a. Anthropic just raised it's revenue guidance for 2026 by 20% to 55B (5). 2. Who is big enough to sign billion dollar contracts but has no internal DC team and bare metal + Kubernetes setup? 2a. You see most companies that can sign billion dollar contracts have internal DC teams. Anthropic uses bare metal on AWS with Kubernetes setup to abstract away the DC and have no internal DC team. 3. Who is very careful about unit economics and has the HS+ software capabilities to convert software prowess into compute savings? 3a. Anthropic is god-like in software and doesn't need AWS software, GCP software, or $NBIS software. IREN is more than willing to give up PaaS/SaaS margins for IaaS scale. Buying bare metal at HS rates is detrimental to Anthropic's unit economics and Anthropic just needs to find a partner that can match it's scaling. The missing question is whether or not IREN can get <6% debt financing at a large billion dollar scale (so not Dell financing) with Anthropic as the counter party? I think there's a good chance because many are trying to get Anthropic exposure. $ZM went up 10% that one day just because it had invested in an early Anthropic round (6). Hypothesis You see Stargate made ORCL the DC/IaaS arm of OpenAI and Anthropic needs an DC/IaaS provider that's going to give it better margins than HS Clouds has the HS-level power capacity and time to power. With the rest of Childress, SW1, SW2, Oklahoma - IREN has power capacity at the right the time to fit Anthropic's ambitions. It's not seeking PaaS/SaaS margins. Can $IREN be the DC arm of Anthropic?

BREAKING: Nvidia will pause new gaming GPU releases in 2026 due to a global memory chip shortage.








