Chris Ridder, CFA

@minenergybiz What happens to production when sulfuric acid is in a physical shortage? Copper companies stop producing. Copper supplies drop. Copper price up. But only companies that have a secure supply chain of sulfuric acid can reap the rewards!

Copper mining stocks failed to break out last week $COPX

Canada holds virtually zero official government gold reserves, making it the only G7 country to have completely liquidated its holdings. The historic sell-off was finalized in 2016 as part of a multi-decade phase-out.. 🫣

@GfI_Himmelreich helps when SNDK is in the portfolio and it is one of the best performing stocks in the portfolio! :-)

We discontinued this strategy book in my AI Factor Substack. Not because the performance was bad. Because the position sizing was off — $SNDK hit a 30% weight. Too much risk for our framework. Still, I kept the model in the group. And it worked quite well 😉 (What you see is not a backtest — it is 100% live trading.)

@minenergybiz Yes, there is an election in November....

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) - "Biggest weekly drop on record" 👀

Did Comex catch fake China silver bars?

At 2.25%, the $QQQ Nasdaq 100's free cash flow yield is at or near its lowest point in the entire chart history. With the 10-year Treasury still yielding roughly 4–4.5%, the equity risk premium has essentially vanished or gone negative, bonds offer more yield than the cash flows of the Nasdaq 100 . Historically, this is a warning sign.

@VladBastion @mjmauboussin Math never got in the way of a Wall Street Bank's commission

OpenAI's growth forecast is statistically impossible - @mjmauboussin OpenAI forecasts $284B in revenue by 2030. Up from $13.1B in 2025. That's an 85% CAGR over 5 years. Morgan Stanley looked at every US public company since 1950. ~19,000 observations. No company of that size has ever grown that fast. Not during the internet boom. Not during mobile. Never. Statistically, this is a 10 standard deviation event. For context, a 7 sigma event is expected to occur once every 780 billion trials.

@Quant_Morales Yeah, go to a department chair or the university provost. Skip the university president, as they are their to raise funds/gifts not hire lecturers

I need some advice from someone with experience in this area. I want to start giving lectures (1.5-2h) at universities on equity risk and factor investing. But I’m not sure exactly what I should do to contact the universities to see if they’d be interested. What do you think I should do?

Free newsletter: Despite stories about gigawatts of capacity coming online, the vast majority of announced data centers have yet to be built, with many running far behind schedule. I believe NVIDIA is warehousing at least a million Blackwell GPUs. wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-…

@Monetaryguy589 Yeah, NDFI is just Private Equity/Private Credit doing the AI Build-out and Trump's Industrial Reshoring

Who are the Big Banks really lending to 🤔 Since SVB failed in March of 2023, the 25 Largest Domestic Banks have created $759B of new Loans and Leases 🟢- an 11% increase from $6.97T Of these Loans, $628B were “Other Loans and Leases” made to Nondepository Financial Institutions 🔴- a 97% increase from $645B Adding Loans made for Securities Financing, and accounting for 2025 reclassifications, the total increase in Other Loans and Leases was $776B 🔵 - a 60% increase from $1.29T Since SVB failed, Large Banks have reduced their overall credit exposure to consumers by $17B in favor of more exposure to NDFIs and Securities financing - going from 18.5% of all loans in March of 2023 to 26.7% currently

@DrivenSports @zerohedge

@Capital_Safari @zerohedge Never tell me the odds!

There it is: the Nasdaq's "dirty sharpe" ratio just hit the highest ever (basically means there are no more pullbacks).

*UK HALVES FUNDING TO UN'S GLOBAL CLIMATE FUND: FT

@PeterBerezinBCA Create a FCF yield chart. This is the 4 hyperscalers (AMZN,GOOG,META, MSFT) without ORCL. Source: @P123Finance

Capital-light model, RIP

This is wild

This is really eye-opening. How did that happen?

@GfI_Himmelreich Are you using a % gain to sell? I really wish @P123Finance would creat Maximum Favorable Excursion and Maximum Adverse Excursion stats for the individual trade reporting!

Most quants optimize for the center. I optimize for the tails – and that is where the alpha is: Bye, bye, $SNDK! Just like with $NVDA $META in 2023/2024, my (AI) Large Cap Models are starting to sell the "outliers." Except they are not outliers. Stuff like this happens all the time — even in the S&P 500. If someone tells you to remove these stocks from your models, zip your pocketbook and leave the building at lightspeed. Markets have fat tails. Your job is not to trim them away. Your job is to avoid the left tail and capture (parts of) the right tail. Built with @P123Finance

@The_Pro_Invest @P123Finance I'm a happy user. Here is the FCFTTM of energy stocks in the SP500 Source: Portfolio123.com @P123Finance

@P123Finance Narrative. Do FCFTTM on payments industry or Medical Devices or heck Energy before Dec 2025

The chip rally is not just AI hype. We calculated Aggregate FCF TTM across this hardware infrastructure basket: $SNDK $BE $LITE $WDC $MU $STX $CIEN $INTC $NVDA $AMD $LRCX $VRT $TER $TXN $ADI $ON $TSM $MRVL $ARM Since 2023, aggregate cash flow has surged to new highs. Portfolio123’s Aggregate Series lets you track fundamentals across a custom stock basket, not just one ticker. Question: are chip valuations ahead of fundamentals, or are fundamentals finally catching up?

I had Edward Chancellor, my former GMO colleague, on "The Intangible Economy" today. I consider him the world's foremost expert on capital cycles, and it was great to get his take on the current AI capex boom. @chancellor_e Spotify: bit.ly/42xaHzT Apple: bit.ly/4dBWXtQ

@GfI_Himmelreich He's just makin' Canada jealous 🤣😂😇

Wow. The administration isn't even hiding its strategy anymore. Direct US control over strategic assets — oil fields, shipping lanes, reconstruction zones. The landlord doesn't ask. The landlord announces. And no — I'm not saying I agree with it. But it's bullish for the US. #SecularBullMarketUSA