Kirk Ian Presley

@litcapital stick this in the Museum of Efficient Markets

“I for one will NOT be voting for the Stop Building Jurassic Park Act. If we do not build Jurassic Park, the Chinese are going to gain an advantage in having Jurassic Parks over us.”

@EllliotttB "There’s quite literally no risk." needs to be a go-to-prison sentence. I don't want to turn into Elizabeth Warren but come on

If anyone knows anything about finding risk free investments it’s this guy

@DallasXCEO @dallasnews They've had a spanish-language edition of the paper for over 20 years? What's your contention

Today's Most Popular NYC Morning News stories. @dallasnews

@TXpaintbrush Also, no free GPU. Mac mini actually still best option on market for any workflow that needs GPU like running a local model like ollama You should find a lot online about Oracle Free, lot of people used it for their OpenClaw

@TXpaintbrush Their wording is goofy. They have a tier of resources called the “Always Free Tier” which is different from Oracle Cloud Free. So I actually gave them CC info and “upgraded” to paid account, but I am using resources they don’t charge for, with AMP CPU and 24gb ram.

I wish I could always write about the glory and honor of what I do, and have brilliant and insightful posts that make readers both laugh and cry. But this is a boring post. This is about an odd networking and digital infrastructure problem that probably won't affect most of you. However, as someone that found a lot of help from random strangers back in the StackOverflow days about niche python and SQL problems - this is me, paying it forward. Maybe this helps someone else in the future. Boring Claude / Codex / Gemini workflow and networking infrastructure post below: In January, I bought a mac mini. It was hyped back then for OpenClaw usage (which I did not install) but the madness behind the hype showed me that a Mac mini works great as a low-wattage fanless development server. Big fan so far. Little square block kicks butt for $500 and is tucked in out of the way in my home office. However, I live in an area where Starlink is my best internet option. Normally I use tailscale+ssh to access my little dev server, and I've had very few issues since then. When I'm not working from home office, I'm usually using a 5g OTA cell network for my ISP connection at my office. I wouldn't call it flawless, but it's been plenty serviceable given the infrastructure constraints. However, in the last 24hr, I've been noticing massive degradation in Claude / Codex / Gemini speeds as they drop+retry communications with their data center motherships. I get routine disconnects in the terminal to the dev server and have to restart the connection. This is a purely Starlink connection issue as I can let processes run autonomously on the dev server when I'm out in meetings or walking properties. It's never been flawless using 5g networks remotely to connect to home network via Starlink, but recently it's gotten VERY tough. Lots and lots of disconnects. It feels like both Starlink and the 5G networks are now having problems simultaneously. I'm using the AI to troubleshoot the networking hiccups and (nicely!) it's also cleaned up a ton of clogged-up RAM usage I didn't know was compounding the problem. So that's cool. So far it's looking like mosh + some other fixes will help remedy this network disconnect/drop situation. Because right now it's dropping approx every 20 seconds. In parallel, I'm looking into getting a VPS at Hetzner as a backup or even as the new daily driver, though I know I use some intense bandwidth occasionally for large data sets. May also surf ebay for used mac minis from folks that gave up on OpenClaw and just stash them in the closet at friend's houses who have fiber internet in the ground. Because as fun as it is to learn new acronyms like CGNAT, DERP (no joke), and differences between IPv4 versus IPv6 - I really do prefer just having a single steady connection I can depend on. Having intermittent internet connections to an on-prem server is like having a really stuffed up nose - you forget how much you take breathing for granted until it becomes noticeably impaired.

@John_Hempton Have you ruled out Tricolor, the subprime auto BK around the same time with more of a TX footprint?

First Financial ($FFIN) is a very well regarded Texas regional bank. They have a long term pristine credit record and they have deep local links. Then last year they took a one-off charge >$20m on a single commercial fraud. I am almost certain that the charge was on First Brands. Does anyone know how a regional bank with a good local franchise got suckered on this one? Did First Brands have a local link or something? Ideas/thoughts?

@TXpaintbrush One idea, the SMU center for real estate has professors / economists on staff. Many former practitioners too. smu.edu/cox/centers-in…

Might be a long shot, but has anyone ever submitted for - and got published in - an academic journal before? I have the bones of a multifamily paper (maybe 2) documented now and can detail it out further. I know it’s likely to be a 18-24mo process to submit to the top 3 real estate, alts and/or econometrics journals and then show up at conferences. I’m reaching out to my former professors but would be curious to hear from those who are daily practitioners and published on the side.

@TXpaintbrush I know you set out to just describe bad dynamics in submarkets for investors but this is IMO one of the better written pieces I’ve seen about the 21-22 multi acquisition boom and cap-rate insanity. Good job.

@IrvingSwisher #Factorle #468 1/4 🐓 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🎯 manf.us/factorle

#Factorle #468 1/4 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🎯 manf.us/factorle

@EllliotttB This is insane. And good reminder of how short (some) memories are...

Here we go, the dedicated PR campaign marches forward towards a fundraising Act 2, beginning with accountability washing blaming the Fed and the industry for your own proactively awful capital allocation and structure decisions Crisis my ass, this was plain foot shooting

@jayparsons Right, the full formula would be “housing is produced when rents produce a net operating income that produces a pay-back period (or ROI) on new housing that justifies the risk of its construction”. At any given moment there can be a lot or a little projects that meet that bar.

NOI is what matters, and rent is obviously a big part of that but not the only part. Expenses, turnover, vacant days between leases, ancillary incomes, etc, all matter too.

@johnkonrad @PeteButtigieg Last thing, the amount of money weekly in the Treasury General Account is public and released every Wednesday. It’s really easy to check whether they are sitting on trillions (or billions) of unspent dollars. They aren’t! Good news.

@johnkonrad @PeteButtigieg Also, if it worked like this, then what US dollars would someone have had to buy the first US govt bonds with? And how could, in the long run, the government run a deficit at all? The government is a creator of money when it spends, it doesn’t need to sell bonds first or at all

WeLL @PeteButtigieg WaS GiVeN $2 TRiLLioN To Fix RoaDS BuT JoHN He DiDN’t SPeND iT aLL This is a HUGE part of the Democrat grift. Probably the biggest grift in of all. And it needs to be called out. Democrats appropriate trillions of dollars then claim they never spent the money. First: prove to me it’s still in the Treasury. Just because funds weren’t directed to the projects they were supposed to go to doesn’t mean the money wasn’t spent elsewhere. But even the money that genuinely sits unspent is a grift. Here’s why. When Congress appropriates billions, that money doesn’t appear out of thin air. The Treasury has to borrow it by auctioning government bonds to investors, both domestic and FOREIGN. Those investors expect to be paid back with interest. Here’s how it actually works: Congress appropriates billions. Treasury auctions bonds to raise the cash. Investors buy the bonds. The money goes into Treasury accounts. Interest starts accruing immediately, whether the money is spent or not. In 2024 alone, the federal government paid almost a Trillion in interest on the national debt. That’s 14% of the entire federal budget going to bondholders, not roads, not ships, not defense. Debt service. $892 that’s enough to build 60 nuclear aircraft carriers every year. So money that’s “just sitting there” unspent is costing taxpayers billions in interest every single year. You’re paying to borrow money that nobody is using. Why would Democrats want money sitting there? Because flooding the system with borrowed money drives inflation. And inflation is a wealth transfer machine. It makes asset holders richer and everyone else poorer. Poorer Americans need more government services, which requires bigger government, which is exactly what Democrats want. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. Here’s a simple example. Say you buy a house for $1M and your salary is $100K. It takes you 30 years to pay it off. Now massive inflation kicks in and the dollar loses 90% of its value. Your inflation-adjusted income is the same, but your paycheck now reads $1M a year. Your mortgage is still $1M. You can pay it off almost overnight. Same principle works for the donor class. A congressman’s biggest donor buys a supermarket chain with $1B in debt. Severe inflation means he charges far more for groceries, but his debt stays the same. He gets rich. And of course he tells the congressman all about it, so they can buy stock in the chain and make millions. Now here’s the real play. That appropriated money is still sitting in Treasury accounts. Republicans won’t spend it. But in four or eight years, much of it will still be there, waiting for Democrats to direct it to allies. And that’s an even better grift. If you appropriate new money, people scrutinize it. Hearings. CBO scores. Press coverage. But if money has been sitting idle for years, nobody cares. In fact, bureaucrats will encourage you to spend it because everyone wants idle obligations off their books. And if they are really eager to get the money off their books maybe they find a way to give it to USAID or the CIA to spend overseas. The appropriation is the grift. Not the spending. The borrowing happens the moment Congress passes the bill. Interest starts accruing that day. Whether a single dollar reaches its intended purpose is almost beside the point. The debt is already on your tab. Just saying “we didn’t spend it” is like maxing out your credit card and telling your wife you didn’t spend the money because the shopping bags are still in the trunk.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And the economists even invented a new theory to help Dems justify this: Modern Monetary Theory MMT is purposely complicated but it basically says a government that issues its own currency cannot run out of money the way a household can, so the real limit on spending is inflation, not insolvency. And inflation is good so spending is good 🫠🫠 Biden’s top economist was a huge MMT fan.

@Johnyalamo @CityOfDallas @dallasnews @dallas_observer To be fair, the updated Council packet from this weeks marathon meeting did have more of the math broken out (compared to the original report). They also got to a number that shows moving saved $300 million (and not a billion, which is the more fair comparison)

Somebody FINALLY did some research and ran the numbers that @CityOfDallas staff or EDC won't do on City Hall. Or @dallasnews @dallas_observer and other legacy media in town. Perhaps next time, instead of staying up until 1:18 am for the "Slippery Slope Melodrama," how about some professionalsm so as not to embarrass our city further and create confusion over a serious set of questions that can easily be answered with some math? M'kay? If some rando could do this, even if not totally complete, couldn't any one of ya'll do something like this w your resources before a meeting to prepare next time? Maybe bring it to that Executive Session ya'll keep alluding to but won't tell us what was decided like when y'a ll came out of one and fired the 1st OIG and didn't debate WHY to the public? I bet yall'd get to bed earlier and save the city a lawsuit or 2.... open.substack.com/pub/onemansdal… @DallasMayor , @JesseForDallas , @GayDWillis13 , @maxielpastor, @ChadWestDallas, @paulablackmon, @AdamBazaldua, @Jaime_Resendez , @caraathome , @KBTDallasCM

@enovinson @Citrini7 Overstock paid out a dividend in preferred shares that were untradable at issuance, forcing short sellers to deliver something they couldn’t buy. Others have floated similar ideas since, especially with crypto assets as the dividend to attract a certain type of investor.

@Citrini7 Has any company done that recently? It could still be a great defense against naked short sellers.

one of my favorite episodes in financial history. the reason they paid the dividend in spices was to burn short sellers who had to deliver those spices in kind to the people they had sold to. and isaac lemaire was shorting because he wanted to find his own path to the east indies, which he did. and then the dutch government said nah and he died penniless. you can’t arbitrage the government.

@EllliotttB $7 dollars a foot more than zero. BULLISH!

@EllliotttB Does the $45 billion spent on office count demolition?

Bullish

@txfblife Drugs, Booze, and Mexican Society sounds like a great country album or a bad trump speech

Which course is your favorite?