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I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions: - East Africa last week - East Asia this week - Europe next week - North America two more weeks

When LNG was facing a temporary glut around mid 2026 to early 2027 and Oil sentiment was peak bearish a special dividend did look more favorable but my oh my have times changed. $UNTC is now immensely undervalued

This is a perfect illustration of how we perceive the Hormuz risk. Everyone is seeing the avalanche coming, yet everyone thinks that somehow it is under control... it isn’t. There is no plan. No alternative routes that can scale fast enough... Hormuz opened or closed is all that matters. The current avalanche is so big and dangerous that markets think this will resolve quickly due to the heavy economic costs... it won’t. One month in, we hear reports that this operation might take from a few weeks to six months, to years... the avalanche will hit much earlier Within a few weeks: - Taiwan runs out of LNG -> no AI - Fertilizer supplies are getting decimated -> no food - Japan, Europe, Australia run out of diesel The only thing keeping markets afloat is an unreasonably high amount of hopium... once it's gone, expect a violent rerating

Diesel = food Diesel shortages = food shortages Hope this helps

I’m genuinely baffled by how obvious of a crisis to humanity is. We just inflicted the equivalent of Pearl Harbor on Iran. They don’t plan to back down until they cause so much economic pain that no one ever contemplates attacking again, or until we send enough soldiers at them to topple the IRGC. Iraq 1 was 700k US soldiers to take a flat country of 25m people. How many does it take to conquer 90m people in a mountainous country?? Even if the goal is only Hormuz, we need a few hundred thousand guys to open it through fortified mountains (Afghanistan all over again). This is gonna be an epic mess whichever direction it takes. Building the manpower in the region would also take 6 mos (like Iraq 1). There is no near-term solution here. One day, we’ll wake up and SPZ will start to price it. But that day wasn’t today…

Believe me, a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the last thing I ever wanted to be right about Dark days ahead

$200 Oil is now Base case without a TACO soon

$BTU....The Later Years Peabody spent years essentially apologizing for their thermal book. The narrative was all about the met coal exposure being the "real" business and thermal being the legacy drag you tolerated. Now you have AI data center power demand, coal plant retirement reversals, grid reliability mandates, and a geopolitical environment where energy security trumps energy transition timelines. Thermal coal went from liability to cash engine almost overnight in narrative terms, even though the physical assets never changed. Centurion was being underwritten as a necessary catalyst to justify the multiple. Investors needed to see the met coal growth story to believe in the stock. Now if thermal is carrying the earnings load, Centurion goes from "required to hit the thesis" to "free call option on met coal outperformance." And we haven't even touched on Rare Earths potential in the PRB #CoalTwitter

Thanos is coming

OIL SURGES AS HORMUZ DISRUPTION TIGHTENS SUPPLY Oil prices are climbing as the Iran conflict looks set to extend into April, with attacks ongoing and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled. Around 8 million barrels per day remain offline, sharply tightening global supply, according to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, with further pressure as tanker deliveries run out. Brent nears $111 a barrel and WTI tops $96, putting March on track for a record monthly gain.

This is the inside of an LNG cargo tank on a modern LNG carrier. It may look like a metallic maze, but every layer is carefully engineered to safely contain gas at -162°C. Most modern LNG ships use the Gaztransport & Technigaz membrane system, where the tank is built directly into the ship’s hull using a layered containment system rather than separate spherical tanks. In the heart of this system is the primary containment. This is the layer that directly holds the LNG. It is made from thin corrugated materials such as stainless steel or Invar (a nickel-steel alloy). The corrugated design is critical because it allows the material to expand and contract under extreme cold without cracking or failing. It’s a cryogenic material because LNG is extremely cold. Behind this sits the insulation system, which is what is most visible in the image. These are prefabricated insulation boxes made from materials like reinforced polyurethane foam or perlite-filled panels. Their role is to minimize heat entering the tank and maintain the extremely low temperature required to keep the gas in liquid form. Next is the secondary containment system, which acts as a backup safety layer. In the unlikely event that the primary barrier fails, this layer prevents the LNG from reaching the ship’s hull. It is typically made from composite materials such as Triplex, combining aluminum foil and fiberglass for strength and impermeability. There is also a secondary layer of insulation that adds further thermal protection and structural support, ensuring stability throughout the voyage. All these layers sit against the ship’s inner hull, which is shielded from the extreme cold. Without this protection, the hull steel would become brittle and unsafe. In simple terms, the primary barrier holds the LNG, the secondary barrier provides backup protection, and the insulation keeps everything cold and stable. What you’re looking at is not just a tank, but a highly engineered cold containment system that makes global LNG transportation possible.

Here is the compilation of all my posts regarding the basics of crude, condensates and refined products to help you make sense of how bad the situation is for each product. 1) Crude - The tussle for crude leading to high crude premiums and the mismatch of crude qualities to replace the medium sour crude that Asia sorely needs 2) Condensates - The impact of Qatar LNG outage to the oil and petchem world 3) Naphtha + LPG - The basic building blocks of plastics and the bare necessities of life 4) Mogas - the most politically charged barrel but the easiest to solve in the current crisis 5) Jet fuel - The most stressed barrel because you can only get jet fuel from refineries 6) Diesel - The workhorse of the barrel. You need this fuel in industry, power gen, mining, fishing. 7) Fuel oil - The forgotten, unloved barrel but is now priced higher than crude. This is used predominantly as bunker fuel in many of our ships, so again - no crude for refineries = no bunker fuel produced Sharing is caring. Repost if you care. #oott

Fact check:

Thanos is coming ....and the market is asleep. For my portfolio I've evacuated the city and engaged all defenses...

If anybody reads these excerpts and doesn’t understand that we are still in the middle stages of a gigantic bag handoff in the stock market then I can’t help you They’re literally SPRINTING to offload these bags as fast as they possibly can with no traditional IPO process

The market is extremely complacent right now. This could get ugly

Have no fear, @DoombergT says there is plenty of Natural Gas in the world just have to get it to the right places

@jbulltard1 It's almost a certainty at this point that a Blue Wave is coming in November

I know its unamerican to even mention it but i hate to break it to you, at this moment iran is winning and here is why. The TLDR is trump is a moron and is fighting people who think a better life exists once they die. Trump is stuck, we've obliterated them from the sky, big deal, he says there's a new regime, there isn't, there's a bullpen full of islamists who hate us. Iran doesn't have to agree to anything, do you think they care if we keep bombing them? These people give zero shits about the people of their country, they will go down with the ship. If they hold on, they can force trump to save face with a ground invasion which would be wildly unpopular at home and cause havoc to our economy, both would be wins for iran in a war they cannot win by actually defeating us militarily. They can however win by destroying our economy and clearly Trump is blinking at his stupid threats of destroying infrastructure bc that would escalate things to levels gulf states would hate us for. If Iran sits back and causes havoc in hormuz for another month even, the US economy is getting rekt, Trump is already at record low popularity and if American soldier deaths pile up, the republican party will get railroaded come November. This is such a stupid war all around which is why we've ignored Iran forever. They are a threat to everyone in the middle east and to europe long before they're a threat to the mainland of the US. Trump thought this would be easy after the maduro capture and didn't realize this is a country that has been preparing for 50 years for this exact moment. We are the biggest and baddest military on earth, that isn't in doubt, what is in doubt is what it takes for Iran to win and that is simply hunkering down and causing oil to spike, US markets to sell off, and inflation wrecking western economies. Iran's economy has been shit for years, they do not care. They will kill protestors for a long time, the IRGC has a massive number of soldiers and all armed. Iran is fukt, this is what happens when a populace is unarmed and cannot defend itself against an armed government, americans should take notes because while you think its all moderation today, you never know what regime will be in charge here 30 years down the road and an armed populace is what keeps government in check. Iran,Venezuela, North Korea all the same shit with terrible governments and no guns for the locals to overthrow them. This situation is royally fukt in all honesty and the only way out is where we leave before inflation really kicks in and we say we set them back a few years. There is zero chance of regime change like Israel wants in any reasonable timeframe that doesn't destroy the US economy. What trump said about a new regime in place is utterly stupid. If we wipeout the top 100 democrats in the US does that mean whatever democrats left aren't also leftists?

@TeddyGambino @tsxman Exactly. Both can be true. I believe Shale has rolled over but am very bullish OFS because these Oil companies still need to spend a lot of capex to keep their production up

@tsxman Both can be true, Tier 1 Permian largely toast by 2028. Will need to complete a lot more wells just to stand still.

OFS stocks telling you #DrillBabyDrill is coming but oil perma bulls think US shale is dying- one of them wrong. IMHO biggest beneficiary of the Iran conflict will probably be the US shale #natgas LNG industry.

Thermal Coal is definitely the winner here, because there sure won't be any excess Natural Gas supply to power the grid for AI and EV demand increases