Career PPG Lab
221 posts

Career PPG Lab
@CareerPPGLab
Optimizing for Career PPG in Dynasty Fantasy Football




TheEkernEdge’s Offseason Dynasty Sells: *Does not include players still in the playoffs. • Jordan Love • Jonathan Taylor • Kenneth Gainwell • Tee Higgins • Michael Pittman Jr. • Oronde Gadsden II • Jake Ferguson • Mason Taylor • Dallas Goedert Who are you selling?





Jeremiyah Love is insane vs light boxes: 9.1 YPC #1 best for any RB the last 10 years contacted beyond the line: 10.0 YPC #1 best for any RB the last 10 years contacted behind the line: 33% missed tackle forced % #1 best for any RB last year vs heavy boxes: 5.0 YPC #2 best for any RB last year via @LordReebs


This year’s rookie TE class is deeper than people think… Some of these guys can easily contend with Sadiq and Stowers Five more TEs that could be dynasty fantasy football difference makers:


@FFDynastyTrades Traded Nico Collins Michael Wilson and micah parsons for JSN. Dynasty IDP. Thoughts?




New England Patriots’ Mike Vrabel and top NY Times NFL reporter Dianna Russini hold hands and hug at luxury hotel trib.al/4V0iy1q













There’s no consensus on what makes a “good” @RecepPerception profile right now. I have seen a lot of WR’s with terrible success-rates vs Man Coverage being touted as having “good” @RecepPerception profiles – because they have good success-rates vs Zone. This framing has primarily been because NFL teams “play more Zone than Man.” While that narrative may be true – I’d like to push back on it, especially in regards to bigger-bodied WR’s. Just look back at some of the bigger-bodied WR’s who struggled vs Man (& Press) in recent draft classes. This is how @RecepPerception charted them as collegiate prospects: Keon Coleman - 20th percentile success-rate vs Man - 59th percentile success-rate vs Zone - 8th percentile success-rate vs Press Jayden Higgins - 15th percentile success-rate vs Man - 46th percentile success-rate vs Zone - 16th percentile success-rate vs Press Surely you’d feel good about having drafted these big-bodied WR’s who were bad against Man but better vs Zone? “The NFL plays more Zone,” no? There have been some hits in this category (Rashee Rice, Juju Smith-Schuster) but generally speaking – @RecepPerception has noted those hits have been rare & has labeled WR’s who fall below 35th percentile vs Man & Press as falling into a “red flag bucket” where the few success-stories have almost exclusively been WR’s who transitioned to “big-slot” roles due to their inability to win outside. I am on the side of fading these players – not excusing them “because the NFL plays more Zone.” Especially if that big-bodied WR lacks the YAC-ability needed to project a switch to a “big-slot” role at the NFL level. If you’re looking for specific WR’s that applies to in this class: Elijah Sarratt - 17th percentile success-rate vs Man - 81st percentile success-rate vs Zone - 14th percentile success-rate vs Press Malachi Fields - 24th percentile success-rate vs Man - 63rd percentile success-rate vs Zone - 25th percentile success-rate vs Press Both fall into the “red flag bucket.” Neither has the YAC-ability needed to project a switch to a “big-slot” role. These players will be FADES for me in 2026.






