Shamar

@LIEngProf I could see Texas being Lean R again in November. I don't see Dems being able to flip it though math wise.

Well, it seems TX AG Ken Paxton has earned the coveted Trump endorsement, so let’s revisit Paxton’s & John Cornyn’s weakest performances to gauge where they might land. Cornyn’s weakest came in ‘20, winning by 10% while Trump won by 5.5%. Paxton’s was in ‘18, winning by 3.5% while Cruz won reelection by 2.5%. We can conclude that Cornyn does outperform the top of the ticket more than Paxton, but we should also consider environment, opponents and that Paxton has built up more baggage since then. Should be an interesting runoff…

@krazgreinetz tenjin25.github.io/NCElectionAtla… if anyone wants an interactive version of previous elections there. I did mine by county, precinct, 2022 and 2024 legislative districts, and 2022-2026 congressional districts.

Here's a poster of the 2024 Election by precinct in North Carolina. No particular reason, but wanted to try a poster-style map of an American election and a friend requested this one. Trump won NC's 16 electoral votes by about 3%, although the state trended left from 2020.

@LIEngProf That explains some of why he resigned shortly after being reelected in 2014.

@PollTracker2024 You, and even Kitzhaber won his 2010/2014 elections by the skin of his teeth when he decided to run again.

Although Oregon is a solidly Democratic state the Dem nominee for Governor has always won their election by single digits, even in blue wave years. 1998 was the last time the Democratic nominee for Oregon Governor won by double digits.

@DanielDiMartino Wow I'm pretty libertarian leaning, I don't know how I'm closer to John McCain, especially with how much of a neoconservative he was at his peak.

I did the new political test and it's so good, very descriptive.

@KJVPopulist @FLPolEnjoyer Not exactly, the rest of Western North Carolina is pretty red, with Jackson County being the least red due to influence from Western Carolina University.

@FLPolEnjoyer Alot of which are pretty blue

Huge news for the nc gop unironically. Asheville was on pace to quickly become a huge nail in the coffin for them, but not anymore

@YouTubeNerdNick @BostinNational Good God, the shift from 2018 to 2024 is just wild to map.

@BostinNational In all fairness I think at that time many of us overestimated Bob Casey's strength as a candidate and I do think he also got very complacent in his campaign and expected to just coast off his name. Plus in late 2022 there was still bitterness over that GOP primary.

Will History Repeat Itself?

@Mean_Repubican it's litterally across river from louisville so I imagine it's a bedroom community for those who don't want to live on the kentucky side.

New Albany, Indiana caught my attention. Despite being a working-class white city in Indiana, it has barely moved right since 2008/2012. Also trended left relative to Indiana. Median income: $55k % w/ bachelor degree: 24% 2008: D+7 2012: D+6 2016: R+1 2020: D+5 2024: D+5

@MadLibHatter I'm shocked Fernandez is supporting this considering he underran Trump when he flipped it

The crazy part of this is it is almost entirely R's in safe seats stopping this. (Campsen is in a vaguely lean R seat in 2020) But there are 3 Biden-Trump seat R's supporting this and R's in lean seats from both 2020 and 2024. All 5 of these guys have got to go if they vote no

@earlyvotedata Well we are the state that had both Mark Sanford and Nikki Haley as governor

Primary this guy regardless of what happens. What in the world lol.

@ChazNuttycombe He's the mayor of Camden now.

Probably the only way that SC-06 is winnable for DEMs is if they get Vincent Shaheen to run. He's a conservative DEM who recently lost re-election in a very conservative seat by the skin of his teeth; proven electoral overperformer for SC GOV in 2014/2010 too.

@AF_Insight They had a Dem Auditor for like 16 years before Mr. Boliek was elected in 2024.

47,000%! Did this not set off alarm bells years ago?

@Jaaavis Also North Carolina elects their supreme Court justices to 8 year terms.

One thing I have noticed in my replies is that a lot of people do not understand each state has their own laws

@ElxMapping Wow

Election Simulator Update 🚀 ⭐️ Full demographics across all 1,422 counties ⭐️ Income, education, and race comp baked in ⭐️ Poll crosstabs drive realistic county-level shifts ⭐️ More states coming soon 👀 ElectionEnjoyer.com

@SidKhurana3607 Union County?

Counties with a median income above 100K:

@dogwoodblooms I really wish you hadn't had to spell it out to this person. But ma'am you are tough as nails.

Why do I have PTSD? I get asked this question a lot. I’m not shy about the answer. It’s a story I’ve told many times: I was born to two 17 year olds. Daddy went into the Coast Guard to support our family. On base early one morning, a drunk driver ran a red light and plowed into Daddy’s car. Daddy was in a coma. He nearly died. But he made a “full recovery.” No one knew he had severe brain damage. That brain damage wasn’t discovered until decades later. It explains why Daddy became volatile. Mama couldn’t take it. I don’t blame her. She left. I was sent to live with Daddy’s parents in WNC. And daddy? He sank into drugs and alcohol. He’d get his life together for brief periods and take me to live with him. During those times, I witnessed things no child should ever see. I experienced things no child should suffer through. Mental and emotional abuse were the least of my problems. Daddy would spend all of our food stamps on drugs. I would go hungry. He’d spend all of his money on wild parties with lowlifes in our home… then our power and water would get shut off. Dead of winter, I would pray to God not to let me freeze to death. At times, our house was full of trash, unwashed dishes, and no clean clothes. I can remember being afraid to go to the bathroom at night because roaches terrified me. I often missed school for days or weeks at a time. DSS would step in, take me, and give me back to my grandparents. But that cycle? It always repeated. I’ve been beaten, neglected, and abused. And it didn’t improve after my mama stepped in to take me. I still went to visit Daddy on every school break. Daddy and his new wife would drink and do drugs. They’d fight so bad that I’d pull my sisters into my bed and lock the door. So they wouldn’t the violence that always followed. Me? I’ve been pulled by the hair into a car. My scalp bled. I was 14 years old. That wasn’t daddy - but he put that woman into my life. At 15, I was punched in the face in a Golden Corral parking lot. Strangled. UNCW boys had to pull Daddy off of me. I was rushed inside to the pay phones. The blood stain was there for years after. I showed it to my husband when we were dating… we were 19 at the time. Through all of this, I was called a liar when I’d try to tell anyone what was going on. The first “adult” relationship I was in? Of course, I picked someone who replicated what I thought was normal behavior. Then I experienced one of the worst acts of violence a woman can go through. I escaped with my life. But something inside me? It changed forever. Just about any horrible scenario you can imagine? I’ve been in it. I’ve seen it. I’ve lived it. And it all happened before I was even out of my teen years. I’m not ashamed of the fact that I came out of all of it with PTSD. PTSD doesn’t mean you’re broken. It means you’re a survivor. 💯

@buttonslives @realDailyWire As a fellow person that was diagnosed with level 1 autism, it definitely helped me tie together why I never completely fit in growing up. I was diagnosed as a toddler though but I still understand why it would bring you relief.

As some might remember, I worked as an investigative reporter on the "sex and gender beat" at @realDailyWire for about 6 months and publicly quit in early 2023. I regret leaving the way I did. Writing and communicating about pediatric gender medicine, especially prior to the release of the Cass Review, often required a gentler approach when trying to persuade moderates and people left of center. Because I was focused so narrowly on that issue, I developed a blind spot when it came to other trans-related issues concerning women’s safety and fairness, which often require a firmer approach. I have since come to appreciate the different factions in the coalition working to make progress on these issues, and the different approaches they bring to that work. It was wrong for me to tell others how to talk about these issues, and I have not done so for a long time. I stayed in touch with people from The Daily Wire and continued to support their work. I’ve always respected @JeremyDBoreing's vision for creating cultural alternatives for conservatives. I want to see conservatives make cultural and policy wins, and I want to help where I can. Colin and I watch @benshapiro's show regularly, and now Jeremy’s. At some point, I refollowed @MattWalshBlog and @michaeljknowles, and I think their work is valuable. I didn’t understand Matt Walsh’s humor at first, but now I think he might be the funniest person on this website. I am very grateful to Jeremy for giving me the opportunity to discuss my recent articles with him, both my cultural piece in @TheFP about my desistance from an autism diagnosis and my investigation into California’s youth mental health policies for @CityJournal. His podcast is a meaningful addition to the cultural work he has been building for years.

@LIEngProf 2010 absolutely smoked every rural Dem that's not in a district with a decent black population in state legislatures across the south. This is the 2024 state house elections for those who don't completely comprehend how it's mathematically impossible to get a majority here as a D

Southern House Demographics, Part II: ‘12 Fast forward 20 years from ‘92 and the South has transformed dramatically. While the number of black/Latino Dems rose slightly, the number of white Dems plummeted from 67 to 18. Of those 18 white Dems, all but 3 represented diverse urban centers, the lone exceptions being John Barrow (GA), Mike McIntyre (NC) & Nick Rahall (WV) - all of whom were elected to their final terms before they too were gone. The ‘94 & ‘10 waves and winning control of most of these states to draw the maps resulted in Rs going from 53 to 111 members in this 20 year period. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

@LIEngProf @AstorAaron The black belt counties in NC are rapidly trending rightwards due to depopulation. Heck even the court ordered NC-01 lines from 2022 went from Biden +7.3 in 2020 to Harris +3 in 2024.

@AstorAaron Decent chance they don’t get the 5 seats out of TX and the 4 from FL they want. Heck, it’s not even guaranteed they defeat Davis or Kaptur this year. ‘28 and/or ‘30 may be different

RMG has been one of the stronger polls for Trump this whole cycle. It now has the Dens leading the Congressional ballot test by 9. If the final result is D+9, Dems will not only win the House. They will turn some of these aggressive GOP gerrymanders into dummymanders.

@kkondik Wasn't it only like Trump +0.3 in 2024? That's about a tossup as you can get there.

I think it's reasonably a Toss-up as of now but very gettable for Ds in this environment.

@ForCharlie47 @KJVPopulist The Dems power base is mostly in Davidson county, Memphis, one state house seat in Chattanooga, two state house seats in Knoxville, and a trump house district in Clarksville.

@KJVPopulist Are there any Democratic State Legislative Seats we can Gerrymander or are we Maxed out?

Yes, they will be electing Bill Hagerty to the senate, marsha Blackburn for governor, sending 9 Republicans to the US house, and continuing the Republican megamajority in the legislature of a near Trump+1,000,000 vote state