@CoreyWriting She's a placeholder there's going to be a special primary in the next month or so
English
Shamar
944 posts
Shamar
@CarolinaMapper
I custom make interactive election maps to make them easier to follow along.
South Carolina, USA Katılım Temmuz 2022
252 Takip Edilen79 Takipçiler
@NC_Patri0t @earlyvotedata I have Whatley winning by 1.9-2 using my back end precinct data to calibrate it in my atlas.
English
@earlyvotedata Btw, if you apply Cooper’s 2016 underperformance of the polls, its R+0.4. 2020 would be R+2.6. Odds are polling will overestimate him. But by how much/little this time?
English
PPP has Cooper under 50%, and you are black pilling??!!
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
New - Senate poll - North Carolina 🔵 Cooper 48% 🔴 Whatley 44% PPP #B - LV - 7/10
English
@LIEngProf @ZhouJaron I was 11 when this election occured and I think another reason it was so close was because sheheen was a rare pro gun moderate to conservative democrat before southern whites fully realigned to the gop.
English
@ZhouJaron The Sanford scandal definitely helped Dems in this election.
English
South Carolina is close enough to be tempting but it is ultimately a pretty inelastic state, more similar to Mississippi than Kansas.
Funny enough Dems had their best recent statewide showing during the red wave of 2010 against Nikki Haley in the Governor election.
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
Not to go immediately into political operative mode, but national Democrats & major donors should at least kick the tires on putting some weight behind Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in November’s U.S. Senate special election in South Carolina. In 2016, it was closer than Alaska. It has consistently been closer than Nebraska. Democrats have kept it within single digits in two of the last four governor’s races in SC. Hope Republicans nominate an insane person & pray the national wave is blue enough to give Andrews a fighting chance (or at the very least make Republicans spend money defending it).
English
@LIEngProf Had he not passed away he and whoever replaces him on the ballot probably win Jasper County due to the population boom down there. My friends here think Andrews has a chance but I don't see it after looking at my own inhouse precinct data since 2020.
English
Fun fact about #LindseyGraham
He seemed to be fond of the number 54, as it was his vote share in 3/4 of his Senate wins. The lone exception was his 57% in ‘08.
Overall, I’ve often labeled Graham as a political chameleon, who always adapted to his surroundings.
ABC News@ABC
BREAKING: U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has died from a sudden illness, according to his office. He was 71. abcnews.link/8W0KGmK
English
@Liberty_Sean321 Adam Morgan the running mate with Ralph Norman in the first round could be a good pick if McMaster wants someone not a boomer.
English
@ChristianHeiens Considering the state has gotten significantly redder since 2020 because of the population boom of conservative leaning people, whoever the nominee is will probably smoke the resist lib the SC Dems are running this year easily.
English
South Carolina’s Governor can appoint an interim Republican senator to serve until the vacancy is filled under state law.
But since Lindsay Graham had already won the Republican nomination just a month ago, the South Carolina GOP would need to choose a replacement nominee all over again.
Here’s how this works.
On the second Tuesday after today, candidate filing opens for one week. The special primary is then held on the second Tuesday after filing closes.
So that’s July 28.
If no candidate wins a majority, there is a runoff two weeks later.
English
@Liberty_Sean321 His name was Mark Burns and he ran in SC-03 in 2024
English
@Liberty_Sean321 SC was Trump +18 in 2024 and getting redder with the population boom so whoever replaces Graham will likely win easily.
English
@LIEngProf 2018 was the second down ballot realignment that mostly locked out Rs from suburban seats like MN-03 and VA-10 and turned ancestrally highly educated Republican districts like VA-02 into swing districts.
English
Help a mapper out with a like, repost and follow! 🥹😺
Why are we destined to have such narrow House majorities? The 2010 GOP wave/realignment is a major cause.
While there’s no doubt Dems were clobbered in ‘10, many of Rs’ gains (a net of 63) came not from blue/swing seats, but through winning seats now essentially out of reach for Dems.
Many of these gains came in the South, once a Dem stronghold that had been slowly shifting R for nearly 5 decades, but Rs also picked up rural seats in the NE, Midwest, Plains and the Rockies.
Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf
America at 250, Part V - July ‘26 House Predictions These are NOT safe/likely/lean/tilt ratings. They’re based on the predicted vote shares the winning party will receive. Based on a GCB of Dem +5.5, Dems are set to gain only modestly in a sort of “reverse” ‘22 scenario. This is largely due to GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting. BUT, remember that many seats don’t become truly competitive until closer to Election Day, so definitely keep an eye on those light pink/blue seats, or even the slightly darker ones, which could easily turn into sleepers. As usual, a like, repost and/or follow is always appreciated! 🥹 Happy 4th everyone and a Happy 250th Birthday to the USA!! 🇺🇸 🎆💙🎉 Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps
English
@dogwoodblooms call anyone who is from areas north of the Mason Dixon line a yankee
English
Some folks ain’t got the intelligence that God gave a rock. 🤦🏼♀️
Hayes Ball@ballhazin
I consider people from North Carolina Yankees
English
He needs to resign. It is embarrassing for the United States we let our politicians age this way in office.
Leading Report@LeadingReport
Sen. Mitch McConnell was confirmed to have been transported to the hospital in an ambulance on a stretcher, per CNN.
English
@dogwoodblooms @JesseHughesNC He's either psychopath or sociopath mixed with sadism.
English
"Tyler Robinson was laughing with his attorney before the hearing started."
This scum has zero remorse. When he is found guilty, I hope his execution is public.
Brian Entin@BrianEntin
Scene from inside the Tyler Robinson courtroom: Erika Kirk was crying before the hearing started. Donald Trump Jr. is in the front row with his wife. Tyler Robinson was laughing with his attorney before the hearing started. Erika left during the description of the shooting.
English
@wiz_political It all comes down to how much they run up the margins or get smoked in the Northwoods and driftless regions, especially if Tiffany can get the trump voters mobilized significantly.
English
A new Wisconsin primary poll shows Hong in the lead for Ds, but barely. Barnes in second. The sitting LT Governor, Rodriguez, is in third! All proposed candidates beat Tiffany.
Would not put much faith in this poll as I haven’t heard of the sponsor before, but likely voter screen.
English
@Axerixing Lumbees being Obama-Trump voters. Robeson was Obama +17 in 2012, Trump +4 in 2016, Trump +19 in 2020, and Trump +28 in 2024. Heck it voted for Mark Robinson by a larger margin than Dan Forest got in 2020, even though he was getting absolutely smoked statewide.
English
@NC_Patri0t I wonder why is Robeson that blood red
English
I've never actually seen how NC trended fro 2008-2024. You can definitely see where people have moved, and how party appeal has tryelu changed over the years.
English
Reminder: Pennsylvania in 2022 elected a Jewish AG named Josh governor by 14.8% over a nutjob, then 2 years later elected a little-known figure with strong connections to the RNC to the senate over a longtime statewide official in an upset.
North Carolina in 2024 elected a Jewish AG named Josh governor by 14.8% over a nutjob. Therefore…..
English
@GrantMa25066011 He was the attorney general before beating McCrory in 2016.
English
I’ll keep repeating it until my face turns blue: Cooper is simply benefitting from high name recognition right now. Literally, that’s it. He’s a former governor while Whatley is still largely an unknown right now, but one who’s sitting on a BOATLOAD of cash he’s likely saving mostly for the final 3-month stretch. Good chance Cooper still wins when all’s said and done, but his current lead is a mirage.
Sarah Longwell@SarahLongwell25
We should talk more about what Roy Cooper is doing right in North Carolina.
English
@Protestia As much as I appreciate what zoomer and his organization is trying to do there, I think the PCA will probably become the new mainline in the next few years if that's what they're focused on. Heck even PCA's General Assembly last week was more tame and is night and day to this.
English
2 hours into a 10 hour committee meeting, it's clear a lot of #PCUSA folks are super, duper convinced that their decision to declare Israel a genocidal state will get the attention of American Gov't leaders, who will then reconsider their support for Israel and have a change of heart. 🤔🤔
English
@wiz_political tenjin25.github.io/WIElectionAtla… btw I came up with an election atlas for the badger state. I'm surprised at how quick and straightforward it was to get the legislative and congressional overlays working with election data, it wasn't like pulling teeth like North Carolina.
English
This pattern is repeating week after week after week as more and more primaries occur. The momentum would seem to favor someone like Hong in Wisconsin’s primary.
Think Ds are shortsighted on the destructive force this could have on their party. Thinking critically would force them to realize that nominating these extreme candidates, should they even win, make it highly unlikely they pass/achieve anything meaningful. It could result in leaving their party weaker than before. See GOP and 2022.
Ryan James Girdusky@RyanGirdusky
Another DSA victory brewing in Colorado. It’s not just New York, this is a nationwide socialist and communist surge.
English
@Protestia No wonder the PCA is thriving because why would any rational conservative leaning people want to voluntarily be grouped with these people.
English
"(the PCUSA promoting conservative views) would uplift the ideologies of white supremacy that are ingrained in our systemic understanding of Christianity."
The PCUSA is working on instituting Gen 09, which is a committee that will institute a radical overhaul and examination of the denomination's views on marriage, sex, family, etc, with a focus on accommodating LGBTQ folks, minorities, and those with...unconventional beliefs in these areas.
As a result, a proposal was introduced that would add language so that these framework documents would include "diverse theological views from across the PCUSA"- meaning those who hold more conservative beliefs., giving them a chance to have their say.
This proposal was torched by several folk, including this woman, who says having diverse views would "uplift the ideologies of white supremacy that are ingrained in our systemic understanding of Christianity.
English
