Circuit

PREDICTION: Trump's fake negotiations are just a delaying tactic to set up a weekend invasion of Iran with U.S. Marines. They will land, I believe, EAST of the Strait of Hormuz, because sailing through the Strait would be suicide. My bet is on landing near Chabahar. This will only happen AFTER markets close, of course. If Trump proceeds with this, there will be thousands of U.S. Marines killed, and the American people won't be told about any of them.

I don’t care what people will say about him being a TACO chicken. This is the right thing to do. This war has to stop. Good on him to have understood that much.

His tweet references one thing: his ultimatum to strike civilian generation infra if SOH is not open within 48 H. He is backtracking on this because obviously it was explained to him over the weekend. The rest (negotiations, other strikes by ISR, denials,..) is noise

people don’t understand… He just flaked on his ultimatum. This is the signal. The pretext (negotiations) and the denials are the noise. Trump undermined his own deterrence because the cost was too high. This is an opening to get something done

We are 3 weeks in to the 4 day special operation Very few offramp windows now remain before the conflict involves ground forces The risk of Red Sea issues is now real & ~18 days left to end this before a real energy crisis grips the globe

I am very wary of reports that the UK is now within range of Iranian ballistic missiles. But if the reports are true, let’s be in no doubt: the UK has no defences against such missiles. No dedicated national ballistic missile defence (BMD) system for intercepting intermediate- or intercontinental-range threats aimed at the homeland. No ground-based interceptors (like US THAAD or Patriot systems in Europe) deployed in Britain for this purpose. In theory our T-45 warships could provide some cover. But most are currently undeployable or not in UK waters. Leaving us defenceless from ballistic missile attack. Another massive military failure of the political class of all recent governments.

As Iranian ballistic missiles were piercing through Israel, an apartment manager in Israel was trying to collect building fees from Jews trapped inside a bomb shelter.