Cesar Chavez

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Cesar Chavez

Cesar Chavez

@CesarChavezP29

Trying to understand the world. @uchicago and @unmsm_ alumni. Peruvian.

Chicago, IL Katılım Ocak 2021
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
In 1994, Imbens and Angrist published a 9-page paper in Econometrica formalizing LATE. It helped win them the Nobel. But what was happening in other fields at the same time? At least 8 groups, across economics, biostatistics, and epidemiology,t arrived at the same idea independently between 1983 and 1994. New essay on parallel discoveries in causal inference: carloschavezp29.substack.com/p/late-for-the…
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Branko Milanovic
Branko Milanovic@BrankoMilan·
Hayek's insight was one of the most important in economics. Not only is the economic knowledge dispersed but the very actors do not know what knowledge they have, and whether that knowledge makes sense or not, until an action takes place. So aggregation of knowledge is simply impossible. That does not make central planning "impossible" (as said below), but it makes central planning inefficient because it can never access all decentralized information--much of it, as I said, in nascent and yet not fully formed state.
Nick Hudson@NickHudsonCT

The most important lesson in all economics is this one:

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Rafael R. Guthmann
Rafael R. Guthmann@GuthmannR·
Hayek's fundamental argument about information economics implies that central planning is impossible because the information required for economic activity is only manifested in the practice of economic activity by the agents. Blocking private enterprise means blocking the process by which this information is manifested. It's not a problem of the central planner lacking computational power, or even a problem of providing incentives in order to extract the information (i.e., it's not a problem of mechanism design). His argument is that this information fundamentally does not exist in a form that can be articulated and communicated through, lets say, writing. Lets consider an example: can the average person write down their utility function in a piece of paper and give the paper to the government in such a way that the central planning computer can replicate that person's consumption patterns over a period of lets say, a year?
Daron Acemoglu@DAcemogluMIT

Coming back to Hayek’s argument, there was another aspect of it that has always bothered me. What if computational power of central planners improved tremendously? Would Hayek then be happy with central planning?

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Mathieu
Mathieu@miniapeur·
I hear many prospective PhD students say things like, “Wow, imagine being advised by [insert some famous professors].” Yeah, but actually, the more famous they are, the less likely you are to have much interaction with your advisor. It’s typically much better to have a rising-star professor as your advisor if you want real supervision and support.
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carlos marín-blázquez
carlos marín-blázquez@marin_blazquez·
"Jesús se echó a llorar". Para creyentes, agnósticos y ateos, hay un completo tratado teológico detrás de esas sencillas palabras.
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Aniket Panjwani
Aniket Panjwani@aniketapanjwani·
if you're scared of Claude Code's YOLO mode, try "/update-config" It's a new built in skill you can use to easily define CC's permissions at a project level (and other configs) I hadn't touched permissions previously, b/c the UI of /permissions was janky and it's annoying to set them one by one Instead, I used the hooks in @doodlestein 's destructive command guard to protect me with CC But this command makes safe permissioning much easier I'm not sure exactly when it was released - sometime between 2.1.76 and 2.1.81 (as verified by a Claude Code update on one of my machines) but I don't see it anywhere in the changelog
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Julio Berdegué
Julio Berdegué@JulioBerdegue·
Juárez. Un gigante de nuestra historia.
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alz
alz@alz_zyd_·
As a young person, you can choose to be measured by your inputs or your outputs. You can have job security and a steady salary; but you will have to show up 9am-5pm, 5 days a week. Or you can have freedom, but you will eat what you kill; produce nothing, and you get paid nothing
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Brunella
Brunella@brunellaism·
now can we get emergent ventures and mr cowen to help me pay for my visa proceedings
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
Las actas impugnadas por presunto "fraude" se concentran en Lima y la costa, territorio fujimorista. Puno, donde Castillo sacó 89%, tiene la menor tasa de impugnación (0.47%). Si el fraude fue en la sierra. Por qué impugnaron en Lima? El test de Klimek detecta fraude cuando aparece un "dedo" hacia la esquina superior derecha (alta participación + alto voto al ganador). En Perú 2021: no hay dedo. Las actas impugnadas (naranja) están dispersas por toda la distribución, sin concentrarse en ninguna zona anómala.
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
Mi grano de arena a este debate. Después de las elecciones de 2021, yo también estaba intrigado por los resultados. Cuando ONPE liberó las actas en formato digital (julio 2021), empecé a trabajar en un análisis forense. Terminé la versión final en septiembre 2024, pero para entonces el debate había muerto. Hoy veo que renació. Aquí está mi paper. ¿Qué encuentro? Usando múltiples técnicas de detección de fraude electoral, ninguna detecta patrones consistentes con manipulación. De hecho, donde los efectos son identificables, van en dirección opuesta a lo que el fraude implicaría: las actas impugnadas están concentradas en territorio fujimorista (Lima: 1.99% de contestación vs. Puno: 0.47%), y esas actas favorecen a Fujimori, no a Castillo. No hubo fraude. __________________________________________________ Hoy subi el paper a mi Github. Link del paper: github.com/cesarchavezp29… Todos los codigos estan disponibles para replicacion. Si alguien esta interesado: github.com/cesarchavezp29…
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Javier Albán@JavierAlban

Muchos ya lo olvidaron pero tras los rumores de fraude en 2021, un grupo de científicos y académicos peruanos de varias de las mejores universidades del mundo se pronunciaron para aclarar que solo hubo dos estudios serios que analizaron si hubo fraude. Y ambos concluyeron que no.

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John Stachurski
John Stachurski@john_stachurski·
Tom and I have finally finished a draft of Dynamic Programming Vol 2! Exhausting but satisfying. New approach to DP theory, advanced material, many applications... dp.quantecon.org
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
Es verdad, en general, los anhos despues de los procesos de independencia no fueron buenos para los paises latinoamericanos, y especialmente para los indigenas. Muchos murieron por enfermedades, no tenian los mismos derechos que los criollos. Sin embargo, eso no implica una aniquilacion sistematica contra ellos.
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🔭| ⚛️ Alex〉
@CesarChavezP29 @eltivipata Por lo que parece, si que debieron morir muchísimos por enfermedades. Últimamente está habiendo muchos estudios que tienen indicios de mucha más mortandad de la que se pensaba. Y es lógico
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José Luis Tivi
José Luis Tivi@eltivipata·
Este podcast de Jorge el Salvaje es espectacular. Dos horas y media que parecen 15 minutos. Masterclass del profesor Zunzunegui. Ese minuto y medio es muy bueno, pero todo el podcast está genial.
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
First R&R of the year!
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Cesar Chavez
Cesar Chavez@CesarChavezP29·
XD
Kimi.ai@Kimi_Moonshot

Congrats to the @cursor_ai team on the launch of Composer 2! We are proud to see Kimi-k2.5 provide the foundation. Seeing our model integrated effectively through Cursor's continued pretraining & high-compute RL training is the open model ecosystem we love to support. Note: Cursor accesses Kimi-k2.5 via @FireworksAI_HQ ' hosted RL and inference platform as part of an authorized commercial partnership.

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