Cesar Chavez

New essay on the Cowles Commission's sixteen years at Chicago. How identification was born, who fought it, and why Cowles had to leave the department it built modern econometrics inside of. Link: carloschavezp29.substack.com/p/the-cowles-c…

Super interesting! "Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch" by Serkan Arslanalp, Oliver Exton, Chang Gao, Parisa Kamali, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, and Jasper Verschuur. "This paper develops high frequency trade estimates at the country level by applying nowcasting methodologies to satellite-based big data on vessel movements sourced from IMF PortWatch. The approach provides a timely estimate of monthly trade at the country level that can be produced and released within 7 working days. The paper validates the nowcasting trade estimates against official data for an initial wave of countries representing advanced economies, emerging markets and small island developing states: Brazil, Jamaica, Japan, Samoa, and the United States. The nowcasting methodology produces trade estimates that perform well compared to the official statistics, with the best fit for advanced economies and large emerging markets. The paper identifies key complimentary information to improve the presented nowcasting methodology to develop country trade estimates. The paper also considers an application to estimates of U.S. imports during a period of elevated trade tensions." elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/…

Hagedorn's results on price level determination are incredibly important. They are a true third theory of the price level to go along with the active monetary policy approach and the FTPL. (No, Hagedorn's theory is not a special case of FTPL.) It's a tragedy that he isn't around to see them published. Of course, none of the three approaches are perfect, but showing that options A and B are not the only possibilities is a massive contribution, deserving of a top 5.

Peruvian journalist Geraldine Santos is only 30 years old, and she is already preparing for her funeral because she has received so many threats while reporting on cocaine trafficking and environmental crimes in the Amazon jungle. trib.al/Nl8JjXW

"You can go to live in France, but you cannot become a Frenchman...you cannot become a German or a Turk... But anyone from any corner of the world can come to America to live and become an American." -Ronald Reagan on one of our greatest strengths, which we seem eager to destroy

Major nonfinancial firms face sophisticated borrowing constraints, where violations lead to creditor intervention to improve performance not indiscriminate downscaling, reducing financial acceleration, from Al-Mahdi Ebsim, @ChenLian92, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello, and Diego J. Perez nber.org/papers/w35213

"Peru is the best country in the world" 🫶 Safe to say Buse thinks highly of home 🤗 @hamburgopenatp | #bitpandahamburgopen

It's a wrap! Very proud to have hosted a fantastic workshop on new methods & models in macro. Two days, ten terrific talks, many lively debates on new models, computation, AI, rational expectation & RL, state/sequence/path space, and beyond. A thread on the talks & frontier🧵

.@ben_moll (LSE) presented “Structural Reinforcement Learning for Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics” w/ @YuchengYang1993 Wang & Schaab. SRL replaces agent distribution with low-dim prices as state variable & learns price dynamics from simulated paths w/o perceived law of motion

succession season 4 episode 3

Does this mean AI Researchers, employees, and students will now have to leave the country and wait through a backlog process to continue their work? Harmful move for tech, business, and America broadly...

This sucks. America should welcome greatness. Builders, innovators, and creators should have a fast path to citizenship. I can’t fathom why we would make life harder for founders starting billion dollar companies that want to anchor themselves in the US.

Measuring poverty used to mean flying data collectors to remote villages every decade. A satellite AI model just mapped every 6-km area of Africa for 36 GPU-hours total, which is roughly the cost of a tank of gas. Cool paper by @MarshallBBurke and colleagues!

State-contingent debt premia may be lower than you think Kris Mitchener @SantaClaraUniv @scubusiness, Gonçalo Pina @alvespina @ESCP_bs ow.ly/CGKY50Z32AR

A very interesting article by Adrien Fabre shorturl.at/YWMvu (in french) based on a survey of 1000 people from different political horizons on what measures they would choose if they had to reduce the budget deficit and stabilize debt (an exercise similar in spirit to shorturl.at/sXNi2 , but we did not have information about the specific political stands of the people we participated. The results are very much worth looking at closely, to see what is widely popular and unpopular. Across the political spectrum. Strong opposition to increase in retirement age. Support for across-the-board measures. The existence of a group of about 20% of the people giving strong priority to deficit reduction. Based on the article, I played fun games with Claude. “ Give me a center left (center right, center) program which will be endorsed by a majority and win the elections.” I suggest that you try.

Going to see a lot more of these AI bans in universities. I understand the impulse but I think it’s a mistake. x.com/ahall_research…

What a nonsense.

Our paper with @clem_imbert is out in @ecmaEditors 🎉🎉🎉 Couldn't be happier to see this one in print!

Very happy that my 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐇𝐀𝐌 paper with @JiequnH and Weinan E appears as a lead article at QE! It’s been almost five years since our first @arxiv draft. Many thanks to everyone who helped us along the way, especially @glviolante for numerous discussions and support!

More on the potential shipping-cost impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Adjusting Drewry’s World Container Index for average pre-COVID seasonality, global container freight rates increased by about 43% relative to their pre-war trough.

Hard to believe the Yale Conference on AI in the Social Sciences is happening next week. We’ve put together an exciting program featuring leading scholars on how AI is transforming measurement, causal inference, publishing, and the future of social science research. Only a couple of spots remain due to space constraints. Last chance to register: yalefds.swoogo.com/socialscience/… Looking forward to welcoming everyone to Yale!