Sascha Berresch

or planned? ask Japan for a "favour" to dump USTs, and the USD..help China to re-flate via massive QE without destroying the CNY which would be bad for crucial imports, also to pump local consumption to rebalance the economy, while the weaker USD helps the US industry, FED needs to step in to stabilise yields and to re-finance USD debt ("The Big Print") supported by USTs stablecoin roll-out, Trump gets a tariff win from China. BTC is established as a new neutral reserve asset??? @BittelJulien @LukeGromen @RaoulGMI

@RealJimChanos Eyes closed for a revolution happening. Invert Jim, always invert. Listen to @moonshoots @PeterDiamandis podcast. Might help to understand what is coming…

“A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” $CIFR

🚨INTERVIEW SPECIAL!: Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN (0:00) Intro live from Nvidia GTC (0:37) CoreWeave CEO, Michael Intrator (32:58) Perplexity CEO, Aravind Srinivas (1:07:11) Mistral CEO, Arthur Mensch (1:18:57) IREN CEO, Daniel Roberts -------------------------------------- Our episode is sponsored by the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE - nyse.com

@RayDalio Why is your article focused on the doom scenario and not on the scenario that the terror regime falls and the street is free? asking for a friend

@matthew_sigel Hi Matthew, thx for posting. Question, which model does this reflect co-location bare metal or full stack incl. GPUs ? thx

"Increasingly attractive economics for Bitcoin companies to build HPC data centers" "We see an emerging "15-15-15" dynamic: data center 15-year leases guaranteed by hyperscalers at 15% unlevered FCF yields, resulting in $15/watt of net value creation" Source: Morgan Stanley

@LukeGromen @LawrenceLepard NO. if the FED prints as during Covid. What did GDP do in Q2 2020 and what the market. And why do you assume this will take years to resovle. I guess it is not so difficult to occupy the land and secure the water for the strongest Military in the world.

This is the only metric that matters in determining who is "winning" and "losing" the war. If this chart looks like this for another couple weeks, physics + financial leverage make it a certainty that global equity and bond markets will be smoking craters.

@Beth_Kindig @IREN_Ltd ...has 4.5GW grid secured energy, mostly from renewables. According to Morgan Stanley this time advantage is already worth more than the current market cap.

By 2028, Wells Fargo estimates hyperscaler data center capacity will reach 125GW, with Google adding 19GW to reach 35GW of capacity, and Microsoft and Amazon adding 16GW each to reach 29GW and 27GW respectively. $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $META $NVDA

@Eric_BIGfund @BillAckman Why did Americans vote for this guy in NY..????

@BillAckman 🎯

So let me get this straight. You support the Khamanei regime that killed 38,000+ protesters and maimed hundreds of thousands more. A regime that has repeatedly called for Death to America and has killed thousands of our servicemen and citizens. One that has taken away women’s rights and freedoms for the Iranian people. And then you call our efforts to destroy the evildoers a catastrophic escalation. You also support those who attack our police force. You take the side of the criminals rather than the victims of violent actors in our city. How is it that you can’t differentiate between good and evil? Why is this so hard for you?

@_clarktang @michaeljburry and @chanos_jim and @jimcramer ….something to learn

A few years ago, I heard this quote from one of the leading labs: "GPUs are the only appreciating asset in the world" Despite being a huge AI bull, I scoffed at the idea - because my mind has always been hardwired with the basic principles of supply & demand, commoditized compute, ROIC, etc As I watch the world unfold these days, I increasingly think that it seems like this person was right - or at the very least, the economic "depreciation curve" of these assets don't look like those of traditional assets. Let me explain: Accountants depreciate assets typically straight-line over a fixed useful life, or in some cases on an "accelerated timeline" (more depreciation up front). The first originated to match the "revenue generative potential" of an asset with the "depreciating nature of equipment". AKA - my washing machine breaks down in ~5 years, as a Laundromat I should write the value of the asset down to 0 over 5 years However, this only holds true if the economic value someone is willing to pay for the asset is relatively stable What the labs were suggesting, was that the economic value of what each GPU could produce was about to multiple many-fold. They found that each time they trained a smarter model, a stepfunction increase of more people willing to pay for that model would be unlocked. Not only this, but all the while, they increased the efficiency of each GPU by many-fold. What does this look like in practice? Say I took 1,000 H100s - if before I could serve 10K concurrent users' requests on GPT-4 with this amount of compute, I can now serve GPT-5.2 (a vastly better and more economically valuable model) to 200K concurrent users. Think about it analogously to your early iPhone -- I spend $500 for an awesome phone, but every year I get to upgrade it for free with vastly improved features (iOS 2 --> iOS 10 in 1 year). I was able to hire a college student before for $10/hr and now I can hire 20 grad students for the same fee. My "fixed costs" per unit of compute are the same through this period -- but I theoretically should be "willing" to pay 20x more for this compute. (In practice a lot of the the optimizations are kept with the labs to be economically viable, and the rest is passed to the consumer as surplus) This is all known and good, but now the next step function change in my mind is Seedance 2.0. Everyone on X raves about this model, but we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of the economic value creation / destruction that is about to occur because of it. Video generation is an insanely compute intensive process, but is fractional compared to the budget of an A-list movie (Transformers budget $100M+ and years of filming+production is compressed into weeks) Consider that all of these models are running on H100s and H200s and Blackwells are just beginning to roll out (and be debugged) The economic value to the world of an H100 is vastly higher than it was when it was first sold in 2023. In practice, we have to balance this thought experiment with the fact that new compute will be vastly more performant than Hoppers. I say all of this, and the reality is that Hoppers will probably depreciate the most when Blackwells take over - the performance gains are just too massive & flops shipped will rise by a lot. At the same time, we continue to invent new and more economically valuable ways to monetize this compute. Consider that any practical usuable videogen was breakthrough just 6 months ago (Sora 2), and we now can potentially have user (or small business) directed movies. In the short term - can always have distortions of consumer surplus and producer surplus - but over time, law of economic gravity and value delivered always find price equillibriums... It would shock me if by this time next year, we don't find the next breakthrough in useful "general compute" -- drug discovery, physics, material science, robotics, etc. This is an S curve & this is what it feels to ride one... Just some random thought dumps today - happy to discuss !

@LawrenceLepard @jackmallers And why is no other „traditional“ company or especially Tech company buying BTC rather doing buybacks. MSTR seems the only one. Too early? Political risk is gone!

@jackmallers and when the other markets figure it out....... wait for it.... The Big Print

Bitcoin (orange) has been labeled "weak" since it diverged from the Nasdaq (white). What if it’s the smoke alarm, the only truly free market left? If an AI-driven credit shock is coming, would Bitcoin detect it first? Maybe it’s telling us what centrally planned markets can’t.

why then silver and gold on a parabolic move? I guess people are just not ready for BTC, don‘t understand it and the fiat system and only want to buy stuff which goes up. The BTC cycle has been disappointing despite the government backing and FED pivot. Now looks dead for some time…

@mikealfred And Aqua Panna - sweet water it is!

Jack, showing why he one of the best spokesmen for the emerging hero generation that will take us out of this Fourth Turning.

@Eric_BIGfund ...but people are not willed to see it!....yet

Gold 10 Day volatility: 70 BTC 10 Day volatility: 55 Bitcoin is not too volatile to be a store of value.

@DTAPCAP @TheBTCTherapist lot of people gave up and the media is also after BTC...time to start its epic run

@TheBTCTherapist It's supposed to be confounding. Sideways at 100k until everyone gets so exasperated they give up. That's the point. Takes "inhuman" patience to win.

I STILL HAVEN’T HEARD A SINGLE PERSON EXPLAIN HOW GOLD AND SILVER ARE HAVING A GENERATIONAL RUN AND BITCOIN IS ONLY AT $92,000. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE

@jameslavish why BTC not through the roof as Gold and Silver?

Good morning. While mainstream media continues to relentlessly focus on Davos, Trump and Greenland, if you are a serious investor, you should probably turn your focus to Japan instead. That's the real story today. Have a great day.

@LawrenceLepard @PrestonPysh Japan and or US as well? I mean Europe also has to. They all have to when AI deflation kicks in challenging the debt based system? The price of tomorrow @JeffBooth

@CgnSascha @PrestonPysh they will soon have no choice

Japanese Bond Yield Curve 😳

@LawrenceLepard @PrestonPysh When big print? You expect them to print to buy the bonds?

@PrestonPysh Ruh, roh....

@stackhodler The price of tomorrow @JeffBooth

You won't need as much wealth as you think. But only if you understand this one idea: Tech deflation is coming in hard and fast. - Robots will be farming, manufacturing, etc. - There are massive economic incentives to make energy abundant - Super smart AIs will work around the clock to solve our remaining problems I see a lot of smart people assuming this means that everything is going to plummet in price. Even @elonmusk said he expects prices to fall on a recent podcast He's right, but only if you price things in Gold or Bitcoin (or equities) - NOT the dollar. The existing monetary system cannot allow prices to fall in dollar terms for a simple reason: No one can service debts if prices start falling. Imagine a business takes out a $1 million loan because they think they can sell $2 million worth of widgets and service the debt But what happens if prices fall and they can only sell $500K worth of widgets? They can never pay back that $1 million loan Multiply that across the entire economy... Banks collapse, savings go with it, lending stops, etc. That will not be allowed to happen. That's why even though we've made incredible tech advances, a Big Mac is 46x more expensive today than in the 1950's. Our monetary system requires inflation and debasement of the currency unit So as tech advances faster and faster there will be MORE debasement, not less. Everyone must realize: EVERYTHING WILL GET CHEAP IN GOLD AND BTC TERMS BUT NOMINAL PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE DOLLAR DEBASES ASSET PRICES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE GOING PARABOLIC WHEN MEASURED IN DOLLARS If you understand this, you just save in gold / BTC, invest in quality equities, and get wealthier in real terms over time as tech innovation goes exponential. Explain this concept to your friends and family now. It's the only way to stay ahead of what's already happening. Note on the chart: Performance of BTC, gold, and US treasuries (priced in gold) since October '23 when treasury secretary Janet Yellen capitulated by quietly shifting more US debt issuance into short term t-Bills instead of long term treasuries. Why did she do that? Because the market was telling her there weren't enough buyers for long term US debt. That was the signal that the jig was up. And that hard assets were the only rational move.

@Beth_Kindig $Iren $CIFR $WULF

Meta $META unveiled its 'Meta Compute' initiative, aiming to build tens of GW of data center capacity over the next decade and potentially hundreds of GW in the future. $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $AVGO

@NickTimiraos Sure...one club. The creature of Jekyll Island....roots to BOE etc

The heads of the central banks in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, the Eurozone, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom have issued a highly unusual statement of support for the Fed and Powell