@aleabitoreddit @Be_nice_dot_com If you don’t have market data can you just market buy on IBKR? Will that affect slippage?
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OrangeGroveCapital
2.9K posts
OrangeGroveCapital
@OGCapital25
To God be the glory | Big Law | Early PLTR, TSLA, LMND, GLXY, AMD, HOOD, HIMS, ASTS and PATH investor | Searching for outsized returns
Katılım Temmuz 2025
229 Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
@Be_nice_dot_com I don't have enough $SIVE... Especially after this news and I'll probably add more market open.
$JBL is probably one of the largest players in this space and basically supply to all the hyperscalers.
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Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers.
The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module…
is probably the biggest news to date?
This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics.
Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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@OGCapital25 EchoStar $SATS
Access SpaceX IPO at <$400B implied market cap, clear catalyst
x.com/origoinvest/st…
Origo@origoinvest
$SATS EchoStar Updated Analysis Since we now have a tentative timeline on a SpaceX IPO, its a good time as any to update my NAV analysis and areas of interest as we go crescendo in to the next 6 months. Exciting times. The key takeaway from this exercise is that at the current valuation of $129 / share, $SATS is still trading at a discount to what I estimate to be a worst case scenario With a clear catalyst ahead EchoStar represents a high conviction expected value play with a high probability of 40-90% upside within a compressed timeframe Let's dive deeper into some of the swing factors at play: 1) Value ex-Space X: I estimate there to be $42-53B of asset value to the HoldCo (net of any OpCo debt). The main variables to this are (i) value of the remaining AWS-3 (paired) and (ii) Boost Mobile. AWS-3 (paired) remains a highly strategic asset and my base case at $2.5 MHz POP is quite conservative in my view. Boost Mobile is the largest "unknown" and can seriously surprise to the upside if the hybrid MVNO model takes-off and they become a core player in D2C through the SpaceX partnership. If this happens there is probably further upside to my high case. 2) HoldCo liabilities: there is a ~$8B NAV swing between my low and high case which is a function of (i) tower lease litigation and (ii) tax impact from spectrum sales. On the tower lease litigation there is >$4B of remaining lease obligations as at Q3 and we are taking the full hit in my low case. Whilst we are not privy to the contractual details it is highly unlikely in my view that EchoStar would be liable for the full sum with recourse to the HoldCo. Without going into too much detail the key legal elements revolve around the drafting of the Force Majeure clause (since EchoStar was forced by the FCC to sell its spectrum) as well as the counterparty and guarantor group under the contract. From what I gathered from the case it is likely that the EchoStar subsidiary that entered into the agreement is separate to the spectrum selling entities, is of limited substance and did not provide guarantees. Having said this I am still assuming some settlement amounts in both base and high cases. On the tax liability from spectrum sales, as I've highlighted previously there is a chance the Company can avoid this all together due to section 1033 of the tax code on forced sales of property (since the FCC mandated the spectrum sale they should qualify for a deferral so long as they reinvest the proceeds) 3) Based on all the above I get to a NAV ex-SpaceX range of $24-42B. Now if we overlay the value of the SpaceX stake, even at the very low-end of the IPO range ($800B) I get to a total NAV of $133-186/share. If the $1.5T rumoured valuation is true then we are closer to $190-243/share. Note that SpaceX is expected to represent >50% of $SATS NAV in my base case. 4) Thoughts on exit / trimming: as we approach fever pitch on the IPO I believe there is a good chance that $SATS trades, at least temporarily, at a premium to NAV (which is not reflected in my analysis). If this happens I would suggest trimming more aggressively as I would expect that premium to flip to a small discount once SpaceX shares are live. On the balance of probabilities I think the $200-250 range is a good area to take some profits. @transhumanica @BDeveran @ACapitalLP @HighStakesCap
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What single stock are you most bullish in right now?
If you can share a TLDR too that will be much appreciated.
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@SawyerMerritt Are we getting Optimus unveil in April too?
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April 2026 is going to be dope.
• First test flight of Starship V3 (with first Raptor V3 flight)
• Cybercab production begins
• Tesla FSD V14.3 launches
• 𝕏 money early public access
• Next-gen Tesla Roadster unveil (hopefully lol)
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@OGCapital25 @nerdalert They are required to report any incidents to the NHTSA who publicly discloses all the data on their website.
They reported 1 in February (data available up to Feb 17th so might be another) for a total of 15 since they started.
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There has been a huge drop in reported accidents with the robotaxi fleet recently (note that these are all minor).
I think this may have been the bottleneck to scaling up robotaxi service.
The next few months will be telling; if 14.3 is a significant step change we should see a more aggressive rollout of monitorless robotaxis.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
@DBurkland @pbeisel It’s in testing right now. Wide release in a few weeks.
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Will 14.3 finally be the last big piece of the puzzle?
Elon Musk@elonmusk
@DBurkland @pbeisel It’s in testing right now. Wide release in a few weeks.
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Optionally is the one thing you want to preserve at all costs.
People speak a lot about the difference between the poor and the rich.
At the end of the day the key difference is the rich is able to preserve optionality.
Super important insight.
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Red going into FOMC with bad expectations is good IMO.
On a date, if you're worried about your education level not matching hers, you don't lead with "I've done some college".
You look poor, smell bad, let her pay, then pleasantly surprise her with "I've done some college".
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OrangeGroveCapital retweetledi
OrangeGroveCapital retweetledi
Coming soon. Let’s do this.
news.hims.com/newsroom/a-new…
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I lost my account with 6.5k followers and came back for the community. Here's what I've noticed since returning:
Finance/investing content on X is on a decline.
Not in volume per se, there's more of it than ever. But in quality.
Educational content is being pushed aside while charts and engagement farming dominate the feed. The algorithm rewards emotional reactions over actual substance, and creators are adjusting accordingly.
All of it….fear. Greed. FOMO. MEMEs that aren’t even funny. That's what gets pushed.
A well explained thread on risk management or objective financial analysis? Buried.
The finance community on X has quietly split into two tiers:
— The noise layer: viral predictions, dramatic calls, ratio farming
— A smaller, quieter layer of people genuinely trying to learn
The second group is harder to reach. But they're the ones who actually stick around.
I came back for them. And I'm going to keep showing up for them even if the algorithm disagrees and I stay at the same follower count forever.
This is a place to learn and have objective discussions. That will go much farther in the long term than sacrificing your soul to chase $20 in payouts. You honestly will do much better just getting a job at target considering the time input.
But what do I know, I’m an idiot.
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@hypergrowth102 Dudum can quite literally burn the shorts with an individual purchase now
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Andrew @AndrewDudum should market buy $10m worth of $HIMS.
Take a slice out of the millions he sold via planned sales.
This will evince confidence and will burn the shorts. Guaranteed.
Do it for the culture.
OrangeGroveCapital@OGCapital25
Come on @AndrewDudum release some good news and burn these shorts into oblivion. Just need a spark to spark the bonfire! $HIMS
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@aleabitoreddit Which platform are you using to buy $SIVE? IBKR doesn’t give market data for nordics without a subscription.
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I feel like markets should value:
$AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today.
and
$SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least?
If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make)
Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters?
At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth.
This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+.
If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here?
If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC.
These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.
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Man definitely has Elon notifications on lol 🤣 responding 2 mins after his boss
That’s the mark of a good employee.
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Peptides will be given the green light any day now …
OrangeGroveCapital@OGCapital25
Peptides will be given the green light any day now …
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@0xcyberbro @FloodCapital Ye, just checking if he’s alright
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@FloodCapital hey man - all good with you? Haven’t seen you on the timeline for a bit.
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@arthritisfinger @AndrewDudum Looking forward to some spicy peptide news as well
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@OGCapital25 @AndrewDudum I think that if we get positive news on the peptide regulation it’s gonna be very ugly for the $HIMS shorts..
It can’t be that far away from right now. 💯
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Come on @AndrewDudum release some good news and burn these shorts into oblivion.
Just need a spark to spark the bonfire!
$HIMS
Mike@MikeLongTerm
BREAKING $HIMS 5m+ shares short vol 🚨🚨🚨 Holy shit, the day just getting started 😂 Short sellers have no chill whatsoever. Where do they get all the shares to short at near 50% Short float? Are we back to fake shares era 2020-2021? Source: Off-Exchange Short Volume
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