Charlie H.
230 posts

Charlie H.
@Charlie_H77
Entrepreneur and Crypto Investor Be humble in your confidence yet courageous in your character


Breaking the "Memory Wall": Optical Interconnects Emerge in GPU–HBM Packaging As a solution to the "memory wall," one of the chronic challenges in AI semiconductors, the memory and packaging industries at home and abroad are weighing an approach that decouples the GPU and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and packages them separately. The core idea is to move the HBM—until now mounted right next to the GPU—a certain distance away, and bridge the gap with light (optics), allowing several times more HBM to be installed than is possible today. On the 22nd, a researcher at a major domestic memory maker said, "We're currently struggling to expand HBM bandwidth and capacity, so we're discussing with customers a plan to overcome the GPU's shoreline limit through optical interconnects and mount more HBM." Shoreline refers to the length of the chip's perimeter. In today's AI computing environment, the key factor dragging down compute efficiency is the data transfer speed of memory chips. While GPU performance has grown by leaps and bounds with each generation, the speed at which memory stores and supplies data has failed to keep pace—creating a structural performance barrier, the memory wall. The arrival of HBM, with its wide data pathways, put out the immediate fire, but critics continue to point out that bandwidth and transfer speeds still fall short of handling the explosive growth in AI compute. Until now, the industry has focused on stacking HBM ever higher to increase memory capacity and bandwidth within a confined footprint. But as stack counts climbed past 12 and 16 layers toward 20 and beyond, process difficulty rose exponentially. The technology hit physical limits, including the growing difficulty of meeting fixed height specifications. Vertical stacking has reached an inflection point—so much so that the JEDEC standards body has relaxed its HBM height specifications. The bigger problem is that if stack counts can't be raised, the alternative is to add more HBM horizontally around the GPU—but that, too, is impossible. In the current 2.5D packaging structure, the GPU and HBM are mounted tightly together on a single substrate. Within this structure, the number of HBM units that can be placed is strictly limited by the finite length of the GPU chip's perimeter—its shoreline. Even when more HBM is desired, there is physically no room to place it, leaving the industry in a structural deadlock. The alternative now emerging across the semiconductor industry is to separate the GPU and HBM and package them independently. It overturns the conventional chip-design principle that components must sit close together to minimize data transfer time. Instead of keeping the two chips adjacent, the approach spaces them apart and links them with overwhelmingly fast optical signals to overcome the added physical distance. Placing the HBM slightly away from the GPU within the board frees the design from the GPU's shoreline constraint. With the spatial limitation gone, far more HBM can be spread out laterally and packed into the board—several times more than today—without having to push stack heights to extremes. This means the total memory capacity and data bandwidth of the AI accelerator system would expand dramatically, on a scale incomparable to current systems. "Discussing Placing HBM Beneath the GPU"… Form Factor Could Change The industry is now producing a range of architectural design proposals over where exactly to place the HBM within the GPU board. The same memory researcher said, "Options under discussion range from broadly utilizing the space immediately around the GPU to isolating the HBM beneath the GPU board." He added, "In the latter case—isolating it beneath the GPU board—the motherboard would have to be extended lengthwise, so we're discussing even an overall form-factor change with the GPU maker." Specifically, the HBM might surround the GPU from several centimeters away, or a separate HBM zone might be created in the center of the board. "We're keeping every possibility open as we discuss the optimal layout," he said. "Nothing has been confirmed as an official roadmap yet, but as part of preliminary research toward next-generation AI accelerators, we're in talks with our partners." The outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) industry is also watching this trend closely. An executive at a global OSAT firm said, "Optical interconnects are a clear trajectory. The only question is timing," predicting that "rack-to-rack and server-to-server links will go optical first, and then chip-to-chip connections within the board will follow." He added, "The larger units will be connected by light first, but optical research is moving so fast that it may not be that far off." Technically, the optical-interconnect technology linking GPU and HBM shares the same underlying principle as the technology connecting server to server inside a data center. The difference is the high technical barrier of shrinking optical-conversion technology—once used for communication between large pieces of equipment—down to the microscopic scale of a single board and chipset. An executive at a domestic developer of co-packaged optics (CPO) components explained, "As HBM stack heights approach their limit, the industry is discussing spreading the memory out laterally to maximize how much can physically be mounted." He added, "The principle is the same as conventional data-center optical interconnects, but HBM optical links that have to operate within a confined board space require optical components to be miniaturized to far smaller sizes and far higher integration density—so the technical difficulty is greater."










The American values of economic liberty, private property rights, and innovation are in the DNA of the DeFi, or Decentralized Finance, movement.



#BREAKING: ELON MUSK-LED GROUP OFFERS $97.4 BILLION TO TAKE OVER OPENAI - WSJ

Lets analyse #opex + sentiment... Current economy datas (PPI and CPI) were softs, still haven't convinced market participants about this disinflationary trend to be sustained. Yields remain elevatedd due to term-premium as market expects sticky inflation and further stimulus under DJ Trump. What we see for now is a solely short covering and supportive vanna/charm flow in the $SPX, plus some fomo buying into the rally, but not a sentiment shift. Vol controls also add exposures on #volatility declines... ☝️Market reacted only on the fact that #Fed doesn't need to turn hawkish immediately, and #market has somse room to run up, but they also know that the fundamental underlying reasons behind the #inflation aren't gone and this rally is not sustainable, there will be a point were the #fed will need more room to sustain growth under agressive Trump policy and so market needs to go down... hedges are there into Q1 #opex... as written below in the quoted post... I explained this here, must read: x.com/alma18499/stat… ☝️ Market is pricing a 0 or 2 cuts for this year, bets a bit higher on 0 cut and one hike into EOY. ☝️If you understand what I wrote in the linked post, you can see that #Fed must be very slow. Bcs if inflation goes out of control, and #Fed becomes forced to hike, that can lead into a deflationary spiral at the end, and that would be a disaster. Many feels like that the aggressive inflationary Trump policy will lead into that scenario🚩 Today PM expo... So we have AM and PM expos. The AM expiring position effects you could see yesterday on those downsticks from an MM long iron condor at 5900/5910/5995/6000 $SPX with positive speed convexity inbetween. Now on the picture below you can see the PM expo for today. We have a MM net long speed environment below the marked zero speed line 6058.74 $SPX (My trendline of my reversion model is trending at 6046.24 $SPX This is a crucial pivot for the momentum on the wider timeframe) Long speed means that MMs net long upside gamma and net short downside gamma. (from dealer flow and vol perspective it doesn't really matter if upside gamma is ITM put or OTM call, or downside gamma is ITM call or OTM put bcs they are on the same side of the skew, and have the same vanna and charm profile) If MMs long OTM call gamma, they also long their vega and short their theta. And if MMs short OTM put gamma, they also short their vega and long their theta. Bcs skew is 25d put IV minus 25d call IV, what we have basically is a short skew position from MMs, and long skew from customers. Meaning, customers are net synthetical short stock, bcs they long OTM put and short OTM call that has the equvivalent P&L profile like a short stock position. This is a hedging position covering long stocks. Selling OTM call premium cover the purchase of the OTM put leg, and so long stock positions are hedged against a decline. This hedging position expires today. The MM long OTM call leg has long vanna and short charm values. So is the short OTM put leg also has long vanna and short charm values (bcs long OTM put has negative vanna and positive charm, but here MMs are short them, so the curves are inverted, multiplied by -1) This provides a net long vanna, short charm exposure for market makers. Remember, MMs have negative theta convexity☝️ So long vanna = vol up/delta up - vol down/delta down (positive relationship), and short charm means that as time passes MMs delta exposure decreases, making them shorter delta, that must be hedged by buying one delta assets. This is what we call delta decay, and what @jam_croissant refers to as "supportive vanna and charm flows". Long vanna however also means that vega convexity is positive (bcs vanna is vega convexity). Remember, MMs are long speed, so longer gamma to the upside and shorter gamma to the downside, but so is vega. So they long upside vega and short downside vega. Means, whenever the price moves up, they become longer vega that needs to be hedged by selling vol, that naturally supplies the market with more long gamma too. And vega also decays as time passes on the tails just like gamma. But as gamma increases vega decreases. But on expo days it is gamma, vanna and charm that matters. Lets see what does it tell for today... #intradaytrading We have a significant long gamma strike at 5952 $SPX This is the middle of an MM long butterfly spread of 5990/5952/5875 $SPX (See: x.com/alma18499/stat… ) This means magnetic effect towards this strike as long as $SPX can break and hold above 5975.48 $SPX (only 3 pts above my coded risk lvl) If this lvl breaks, momentum can climb up towards more higher/stronger gamma strikes at 6030 $SPX I code 5860 $SPX as the zero vanna, also coincidencing the cluster of the nearest customer long put positions, that will expire worthless and provide supportive MM buyback flow as their delta decay accelerates. We can expect a retest of my trendline written above. However into the next week these supportive MM buyback flows will be gone and that will be the time when customer sentiment will reveal itself. Note that gamma (if charm convexity is positive) increases towards the expo. And also that gamma and vega have inverse correlation as I pointed it out here: x.com/alma18499/stat… Also means that when the expo is gone, #volatility will have an impact. So what I want to see is that customers remain short skew, in order to stuff MMs with long gamma. Reversion points and risk lvls are attached for $SPX and $ES $ES_F long bias maintains🟢 Hope you liked it: buymeacoffee.com/alma18499 #optionstrading #stockmarket #riskmanagement








The March inflation report triggered a jailbreak by the sell-side bank and other Fed forecasters, who largely abandoned prior calls for a June cut Most now see the first cut no sooner than Q3, and there's been a lot of movement towards expecting just one or two cuts this year.




