Chris

@sporadica Maybe she works in insurance

forget the virus, WHO THE HELL is taking antarctic cruises from argentina, sailing the remote south Atlantic, going home to SF for a day, then flying to the remote Pacific and ending up on one of the most remote islands on Earth that's a damn Lord of the Rings level journey

@sgodofsk A picture of the lady?

Okay so she 1. Got on a cruise ship to St. Helena 2. Took the weekly 5hr flight to Johannesburg 3. Took a daylong connecting flight back to San Francisco 4. Flew to ~8hrs to Tahiti, then 1hr to Mangareva, from SF 5. Took a 2 day boat ride to Pitcairn WTF forget the virus thing

@Kacper_PK_CH Nice for you, I got stopped out with a decent profit. I like copper, but I won't buy more right now at those levels.

$BHP - new ATH (all-time high) now. Almost gave me a panic attack during the March sell-off, but the trend held, and so did I. 🙂 The dividend also arrived right on time to reinvest it. It's right now a copper story. They are targeting a massive growth in production. I do like their iron ore and metallurgical coal business as well.

@sudoingX Hermes with Deepseek V4 pro is really good. Not for free, but for my private use case (equity research, no programming) amazing for the price point.

let me say this out loud here: there is absolutely zero reason to use openclaw in may 2026. a general agent exists. hermes agent does coding, video editing, marketing design, research, browser automation, terminal work. one tool, all under your roof.

@Kacper_PK_CH I am close back to my entry point for B, so let's sit and wait for a while.

That’s more than future profit projections for most semis. Markets won’t care.

@xyzdkfe @brandonjcarl Really, maybe I am wrong on that point, will check.

@ChrisXFRA @brandonjcarl The bulk of the cost is moving to inference, not training.

If my AI thesis plays out, the Druckenmiller-style post-mortem would look like this: “The business model of these companies is to turn energy, chips, R&D and leverage into profitable intelligence. Unfortunately, all of their input costs were moving against them at once: energy was up significantly, storage and memory were up 200%+, salaries had gone up as had the cost of funding. And this was all happening at the same time that open source models were getting to be ‘good enough’ for most tasks. Most of all, the scaling laws meant that incremental increases in intelligence were going to cost exponentially more. Against this valuations had gone parabolic and option trading was fueling the fire more. What really threw people off was the fact that enterprises had front loaded their software spend and everybody extrapolated that in an ongoing way. It wasn’t rocket science, it was just business sense. The best time for a company is when their input costs are low and competition is low. It’s not often in the market gives you a fat pitch where business conditions are deteriorating while valuations are accelerating.”

@xyzdkfe @brandonjcarl Fair point, but the big invoice is for training and China has a history of underpricing strategic markets for decades (i.e. ship building, PV, Autos) to push out competition.

@ChrisXFRA @brandonjcarl Sure, but the hardware to run them is still expensive.

@BurggrabenH I agree, a higher floor is likely, but even an 80$ floor is already a bonanza for E&P companies. And local demand for LNG will be even worse (I expect the EU to buy LNG at any price and push the poorer SE Asians countries out of the market).

@ChrisXFRA Not sure $80 is enough floor into 2027 but yes, something like it directionally. Comes down to how much demand is taken out permanently due to this shitshow.

The Atlantic piece by Robert Kagan is interesting not because it proves “America lost” or “Iran won”, but because it reveals how seriously parts of the US foreign policy establishment now view the Hormuz problem. Some of the article’s strongest points are actually correct IMHO: First, Hormuz does not need to be fully “closed” to create a strategic and economic crisis. A Strait that is selectively dangerous, politically conditioned or commercially unreliable already changes the entire equilibrium. As I explained in a Substack, it’s remarkably simple to stop vessel traffic. A threat is enough. Second, the key issue is not military maps but commercial confidence. Oil molecules do not teleport through Hormuz because politicians announce a ceasefire. Shipping is a human business run by fleet managers, insurers, charter desks and exhausted seafarers trying to avoid getting trapped in a warzone. That’s why I keep repeating: what matters is not some outbound Iranian or Indian tanker during a ceasefire window. That’s only a sign of people trying to escape the Persian trap. It’s noise. The signal is whether ballast vessels voluntarily go BACK INTO the Persian trap to restore normal tanker schedules. That is a much higher hurdle. I would certainly not send my vessel in there, not for any kind of premium. The article is also right that the current restraint by the US and regional actors reflects the enormous escalation risks tied to Gulf energy infrastructure. Markets still underestimate how vulnerable refining, LNG and export systems really are. But the article overreaches massively. “Checkmate”, “American surrender”, “Iran controls the global energy system”, “nobody can reopen Hormuz” etc. is rhetorical excess masquerading as inevitability. The current reality is not “can’t”, but “won’t yet”. The US, Israel, Japan/Korea, China, France/Britain (in other EU NATO combo), India or the Gulf states all ultimately possess plenty of latent military capability to destroy a (weak) Iranian military/resistance if political will emerges. The issue is that nobody wants to pay the political price of full escalation for now, which is entirely rational. A few weeks back this useless & under-resourced conflict wasn’t even on the radar. Why rush into a full blown war now? With what political support while diesel & jet fuel remains available? It’s early. Likewise, markets have a way to adapt. Painfully, slowly and with enormous friction, but they adapt. By H2 2027 we will see: - workarounds/bypass infrastructure; convoy systems, new insurance structures; - bilateral arrangements; altered trade flows; smuggling; new alliances etc; - and permanently higher geopolitical risk premia for the region (Asians in particular will be fat up with all this the Middle Eastern groundhog day bullshit, rightly so); Between now and then? A messy muddle-through phase attached to recessionary pressure, with significant pain in Asia & Africa and lesser pain in Europe and the US, huge inventory draws and massive SPR releases, inflation scares and periodic political panic. Meanwhile, forecasting neat “deal” outcomes is useless. Nobody knows: - how stable the Iranian regime really is, - how its populations react after a prolonged ceasefire and hyperinflation; - how long Western political tolerance for this nonsense lasts; - whether Israel escalates further; - how Saudi/UAE/TUR positioning evolves; - what China or India tolerate; - or when commercial shipping confidence returns (my biggest concern by far). There are simply too many moving parts and stakeholders, including global consumers which so far remained remarkably calm. That doesn’t have to stay that way. At some point they may demand to “bomb” it open. This is fog of war/peace territory. The most likely outcome for now is not a clean victory for anyone, but an ugly global shitty muddle-through regime with a proper recession by Q3, higher inflation & a structurally nervous energy market well into 2027.

@HFI_Research And that's why I am long coal for Asia, something needs to keep the a/c running

How do you keep product storage from getting low in the US? Prices have to rise enough to shut off exports. Asian oil traders will have no choice but to buy whatever crude is available. It is what it is. This was obvious 2 weeks ago and it's more obvious than ever now.

@aeberman12 75-80$ as a new floor would be great for current production, but won't trigger the kind of new explorations and drills that we need to fill the demand.

Why do so many think today's oil price is too low? WTI price includes a $30 risk premium Inventories say $75 Markets say $106 #OilMarkets #WTI #Energy #Commodities #Inventory #ComparativeInventory #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #Macro #SupplyDemand

@pmarca While the frontier status of the US labs is real, never underestimate a second-place "good enough" Chinese model for 20% of the cost for average/dumb workflows.

I don’t say this to look down on anyone! But I’ve never seen this magnitude dispersion of knowledge and awareness of new technology in my life. People need to know.

@Kacper_PK_CH I have 1/3 of my money in ETFs and I am both pleased and worried with the recent performance 😅.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, for now), we're all in via our passive pension inflows.

Just in my lifetime: Video games, violent movies, rock and roll, hip hop, Dungeons & Dragons, portable headphones, pocket calculators, comic books, on and on and on and on

@UndervaluedOnG Looks interesting and yes, everything above 80$ as a floor for 2026 and 2027 will be sufficient for patient investors.

Latest comparative inventory analysis using EIA data through 5/6/26. Based on current USA commercial petroleum stocks (ex. other oils), WTI fair value calculated at $84, or $11 overvalued from todays (5/8) market price.

@Kacper_PK_CH It's annoying, but by using IBKR Ireland I can at least work with the tax liquidity until due.

@Kacper_PK_CH I expected something like this. I am still on 28% German tax for capital gains, so enjoy your deal.

@Kacper_PK_CH And you live already in Switzerland (sad noises from the German tax system).