@dalibali2 @conorsen We are paying a terrible takes price for that era’s blog-levered loans on simple heuristics and rhetorical crutches
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Charles Fey
250 posts
Charles Fey
@ChuckFlay
Not investment advice, life advice, or good advice
Katılım Mayıs 2024
272 Takip Edilen26 Takipçiler
@Noahpinion You’re such a tedious little troll now. Good grief. There’s a big, deep market for you to go get ripped apart in if you want to be accountable for this position in any meaningful way. Anyway, that was my last bite.
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Everyone talking about AI job displacement was always so focused on the working class. They thought only the highest-IQ people would still be valuable. But it turned out mathematicians got replaced long before truckers did.
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@kechogarcia You mean to tell me these guys are full of shit? Why, I never.
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Tomorrow is the day %100 of code will be written by AI. Looking forward to not have to code again.
Chubby♨️@kimmonismus
In 3 to 6 months AI will write about 90% of all code. In about 12 months (1 year!) AI will write 100% of all code. That’s coming from Dario Amodei, CEO Anthropic. So year looking bad for several people and looking good for self-developing AI
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@TimDuy I’ve been a college educated adult in the job market since 2006 and people have uniformly bitched about how bad the economy is every year I’ve been alive at every level of U-3, U-6, and LFP
U-3 is under 5%, suck it up
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I don't know it will ever be a good time for job searching until memories of the pandemic fade.
Chris Rugaber@ChrisRugaber
People really don’t think it’s a good time to find a job.
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@AvgJoesCrypto @bharat_usd I’d bet $COIN saw huge ACH flows to DraftKings / FanDuel and the argument then becomes hey gamblers, you have cash here, why background our app and go somewhere else to give it away
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@bharat_usd Not a single sports gambler is gonna download Coinbase to replace DraftKings/FanDuel and now they’re just alienating their current user base
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I really have no idea why Coinbase is leaning so hard into this gambling pivot
Coinbase 🛡️@coinbase
Is your bracket over? No problem - you can keep trading the tournament on Coinbase.
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@ContrarianCurse Nominally good that they have pricing power because it’s indicative of value but what does the actual price need to be assuming a sustainable margin, reasonable churn, and competition from e.g. google who can just copy everything but the model itself at n% < 100 of cost
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Claude has enough buy-in and is delivering at a rate that I’m going to say the Max plans come up in price soon
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@MidwestHedgie I suppose “secretly” is true if the concept of an insurance mechanism is novel, which is true about a median voter
My concern is that Medicaid is so egregiously outrunning every tether - GDP, real income, etc. - that we need a real value discussion
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"ObamaCare *secretly* transfers resources from not chronically ill people and uses them to help chronically ill people"
Says a man whose career at this point is mostly helping rich Americans dodge tax on their alternative investment strategy
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@marc_slans As someone who has been burned on Tesla for more than a decade, if you ever figure out why that company is worth any number at all you just let me know
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I know this has been pointed out before, but how on earth do $META and $TSLA have roughly the same market cap???
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@bucketshopcap So many in this generation learned about buying dips, but have they discovered falling knives
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I thought it was time to get bullish MSFT, but literally every other post on here is DID YOU KNOW MSFT IS AT THE LOWEST VALUATION IN 6 YEARS?? So we are probably going lower.
Bucket Shop Capital@bucketshopcap
Judging from the sentiment on here alone, the pain trade is MSFT underperforms next year.
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It’s just the burger robot problem
The burger robot problem has always been that a kid is cheaper and more flexible than the burger robot. Is Claude a burger robot or will the incredible cash bonfire required to produce these services at scale end
sp6r=underrated@sp6runderrated
I'm very skeptical this is true despite believe AI will raise structural unemployment. Tech has a hype culture. I'm basically fine with it. But if your hype culture involves making rhetoric like this you will lose public esteem.
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@mert Multiple CEOs who pay for this in enterprise claim 30% prod gains in agentic workflows at scale
So: if Ant charged cost + a sustainable margin to access their models / tools, would that number be meaningfully less than 30% of dev spend at, like, JPMC
If no, uh oh
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@MarcGoldwein I would rather personally take the 2.7-2.9 beneficiaries I currently fund into the woods and leave them there than give up a single penny of what the SSA established I was owed when I paid. Make it solvent by terminating payments at 75.
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2) The Six Figure Limit (SFL) would improve solvency.
Social Security is less than seven years from insolvency, and face a massive structural funding gap.
Depending on how its indexed, the SFL could close 20%-55% of the shortfall.
3/
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🚨🚨🚨
This year, a couple retiring at the normal retirement age (~67) could collect $100,000 in Social Security benefits. 💰💵
Our new Six Figure Limit would cap benefits at that level.
A short 🧵
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@buccocapital Less than five percent of all Americans, the richest society in the world, have completed the hurdle of maxing 401(k) / IRA contributions annually which I would put before putting a single penny in a 529 etc.
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Also, like, so what if college ends up being free or cheap? Ahhh oh no I saved all this money for college and didn’t need it so now I have all this extra money and can retire early or give it to my kids what a disaster
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Pretty shocked how confident people are they don’t need to save for their kid’s education….
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital
@0xLuxi You won’t even be able to put two kids through college in 20 years with that
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@extliqprovider @ChuckFlay @PythiaR @JerryCap You don’t need to search for Gemini it’s sitting everywhere and that’s the entire point
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“We’re out of capital so it’s time to declare AGI and do one last shake of the tin can”
prinz@deredleritt3r
New "very strong" OpenAI model, with ability to "accelerate the economy", will be released in a few weeks. Altman: things moving faster than many expected. OpenAI's product deployment team renamed to "AGI Deployment".
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@SkyeSharkie Deleting the API has exactly one possible meaning, and it’s “we cannot afford to let people use this compute for another second”
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Deleting the API too signals some deep financial problems, noticed they removed the Microsoft account login on chatGPT as well, is OpenAI committing sepukku? The Sora models should be open sourced, this is ridiculous.
Could this Sora thing be government driven? Sora has been heavily used for fake war footage. hmm...
Sora@soraofficialapp
We’re saying goodbye to the Sora app. To everyone who created with Sora, shared it, and built community around it: thank you. What you made with Sora mattered, and we know this news is disappointing. We’ll share more soon, including timelines for the app and API and details on preserving your work. – The Sora Team
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@JerryCap I think giving up on Sora is more about compute shortage/need to focus because Ant is crushing OAI than anything Google did.
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@HedgeDirty That's what I mean by "kind of person" because a lot of people hear "pick three random words out of the scrabble dictionary" and pick three "random" words. The lens is how people hear the advice and tend to behave.
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@ChuckFlay Hence my advice to "pick 3 random words out of the scrabble dictionary" rather than come up with 3 on your own
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One thing The Science Really Does Settle is "longer with normal chars is more secure than shorter with special chars"
Picking three random words out of the scrabble dictionary and stringing them together is more secure than 8 chars with specials, and much easier to remember!
Sean T at RCP@SeanTrende
I will vote for the presidential candidate who standardizes password requirements.
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