Coalition for Political Forecasting

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Coalition for Political Forecasting

Coalition for Political Forecasting

@CoalitionPolFor

The Coalition for Political Forecasting aims to liberalize regulations on political betting in order to serve the public interest.

Katılım Haziran 2023
414 Takip Edilen244 Takipçiler
Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
On average, ~20-40% of stock price change happens before official firm announcements. Thus insider trading in stocks is rampant; yet our stock markets function fine. To consider re prediction market insider trading.
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Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran@eightyhi·
Prediction markets are the cheapest mechanism humanity has built for buying information about the future. The CPI markets taught me the information doesn't require deep liquidity. It requires the right people, the right questions, and just enough money to make it worth their while.
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Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran@eightyhi·
New on 50¢ Dollars: Minimum Viable Liquidity Prediction markets are the first asset class where more isn't necessarily more. I analyzed every CPI prediction market Kalshi ever listed: 149 events over 3.5 years. Trading volume ranged from 7 contracts to 11.4 million, a 1.6 million-fold spread. Across that entire range, volume explained less than 1% of the variance in forecast accuracy.
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran tweet media
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Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Mick Bransfield
Mick Bransfield@MickBransfield·
Error on Kalshi CPI forecasts over time, from @eightyhi article below.
Mick Bransfield tweet media
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran@eightyhi

New on 50¢ Dollars: Minimum Viable Liquidity Prediction markets are the first asset class where more isn't necessarily more. I analyzed every CPI prediction market Kalshi ever listed: 149 events over 3.5 years. Trading volume ranged from 7 contracts to 11.4 million, a 1.6 million-fold spread. Across that entire range, volume explained less than 1% of the variance in forecast accuracy.

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Coalition for Political Forecasting
Coalition for Political Forecasting@CoalitionPolFor·
"Our community certainly has come to realize how important state AGs are. They're now the ones leading the charge in trying to regulate, maybe ban political betting." — @pjchougule
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Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Andrew Kim
Andrew Kim@akhoya87·
It appears Nevada has already sued Kalshi in state court, and Kalshi has already removed the state-court action to federal court.
Andrew Kim tweet media
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Coalition for Political Forecasting retweetledi
Chris Brunet
Chris Brunet@chrisbrunet·
Howard Lutnick’s sister, @edielutnick, was a “Founding Citizen” of TerraMar, the nonprofit organization established and run by Ghislaine Maxwell.
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Declan Harty
Declan Harty@declanharty·
“The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products,” @MichaelSelig⁩ writes in the WSJ. wsj.com/opinion/states…
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Coalition for Political Forecasting
Coalition for Political Forecasting@CoalitionPolFor·
"It's less straightforward to hedge on politics than it is on grain futures. But I think that as these betting markets mature, it may be one more sophisticated way that our financial markets can hedge." — @pjchougule
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Keşfet

@PubKey_NYC @Kalshi @JulieMasonShow1 @business @ElleBeyoud @eightyhi @Polymarket @pjchougule