
Collin Dougherty
359 posts


@YieldMaxETFs Yes, cony continues to bleed value regardless of market conditions.
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The earnings release for $COIN is out, here's a quick update for your $CONY, the YieldMax® COIN Option Income Strategy ETF position:
What Happened:
The Results: $-0.17 EPS and $1.4B in revenue were reported.
The Reaction: Shares moved 4.25% in response to the announcement.
What it means for $CONY: Implied volatility has now fallen to 69.56%, as the uncertainty around the event has been resolved.
Why This Matters:
That pre-earnings volatility; where premiums were elevated has now reset. This shift from uncertainty to clarity is central to the strategy.
What’s Next?
Attention turns to the next opportunity and upcoming distribution cycle.
Was this move in line with what you were expecting?
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🔔 Friday close · QUANTUITION field note
👀 Spot Up. Vol Up. Something's Cooking.
SPX closed +0.96% at 7,397. Strong grind-up day. Textbook response? VIX should bleed lower — calm tape, weekend theta, all that.
Instead VIX printed +0.41%. Spot up AND vol up. That's the anomaly that makes me sit up. And VVIX — vol of vol — ripped +3.29% alongside it. When the vol of vol leads the vol on a green-stock day, somebody is paying up for VIX options while the index itself yawns.
So I went looking. Here's what I found at the close:
VIX upside calls (May 19 expiry, 11 days out) lit up across the board. The 19-strike led volume at 16,883 contracts — the volume crown of the day — with the 20s (10,172) and 22s (6,594) also active. Combined OI build across 19/20/22: +12,700 contracts carried home over the weekend, paying weekend theta for the privilege. That's not day-trading flow.
VVIX/VIX ratio broke 5.65 — first push out of the equilibrium band in weeks.
VIX9D (the very front end) collapsed −6.34% while back-end vol held firm. The curve is steepening violently at the front.
Implied correlation (COR1M) printed 9.99 — sub-10. Historic floor territory.
Single-stock vol (VIXEQ) jumped +3.34% while index vol stayed flat. The dispersion premium widened, not narrowed.
What this barbell shape tells us
The vol surface today is a barbell: front end crushed, body asleep, wings and single-stock vol bid hard. Translation in plain English:
📅 No near-term worry. Front-end vol got dumped — Monday and Tuesday don't scare anyone.
🎯 A defined window of concern. Somebody's paying up for VIX upside between now and May 19. 11-day window. Specific catalyst in mind.
🐎 Stocks running their own races. Correlation at historic lows, single-stock vol bid, index vol asleep. The dispersion trade is alive and feeding.
⚠️ The tape looked calm. The market is pricing fatter wings — not an immediate shock.
One honest caveat
VIX always bleeds Friday afternoon (weekend theta) and pops Monday morning. So some of Friday's call buying is the standard Mon-pop trade. But the strike selection (19s, 20s, 22s — not front-week) and the size of the OI build held over the weekend tilt this toward strategic positioning + seasonal tailwind, not pure scalp flow.
What we'll know by Monday close:
Did the upside-call OI grow further, or did the weekend buyers ring the register?
Did VVIX/VIX hold above 5.65, or melt back into equilibrium?
Did single-stock vol stay bid, or did the dispersion trade start to wobble?
The full breakdown — every chart, every ratio, the dispersion math, the curve shape — lands in tomorrow's QUANTUITION VIX dashboard. Weekend deep dive.
For now: the tape was quiet. The wings were not. Watch the flow. 🐐
→ optionsgelt-sample.netlify.app
Linktree in Bio
📬 One more thing
If this is the kind of read you want in your inbox before Monday's open — subscribe. The dashboard drops daily. The dispersion framework, the decomp math, the catalyst windows — that's where the work lives. Free for now.
Gotta WATCH the FLOW to be in the KNOW.
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@arXmedes Good day! We have not had any other reported issues with the Thinkorswim Platform today. Please be sure to clear cache and restart your device, if the issue persists, please give us a call at 1-800-435-4000 and our tech support specialist would be happy to assist.
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@tradertravis So, at 2% risk on the 250k you could generate about 1900/month selling at the 80% profit that you recommend. I'm really interested do see how you generated the remaining 5-8k/month. I also agree this is realistic just really want to know the additional strategy.
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@CollinDoug93748 I only trade the S&P, so I sold SPX puts only.
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I totally forgot to share that I started the case study this year based on this tweet. The $250,000 has averaged $7,000- $10,000 per month, including the drawdown during the correction.
Trader Travis Wilkerson@tradertravis
This post genuinely bothered me to my core because so many people in the comments shared the same belief. I’m strongly considering doing a case study in 2026 to show how it’s possible with the proper skill set.
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@VitalTrades @KobeissiLetter Don't think April data included in Q1 numbers.
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HOOD -12% is a sentiment tell, not a company story.
Industry retail call buying hit 9M contracts/day in April, highest since November 2025. The broker clearing that flow still missed revenue by $70M.
Retail is more active than ever and paying less to express it. The euphoria trade is getting cheaper to run, not more profitable.
That's the warning, not the miss.
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Screw it, 10 free trial spots. First come first serve.
whop.com/checkout/plan_…
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@biancoresearch Is Bitcoin peaking after falling 40%? Just trying to understand your point.
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Does anyone remember Dec 21, 2017, when Long Island Iced Tea rebranded as Long Blockchain? It was up 183% that day.
It was less than a week after the peak in Bitcoin's price, which then went on to fall 80% over the next year.
I know, this time is different.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
You can’t make this up: Allbird stock, $BIRD, was down -99% from its record high as of yesterday as the shoe company was collapsing. Today, Allbirds stock is up as much as +875% after entirely rebranding as an AI company. This includes selling all of its brands and footwear assets and rebranding to “Newbird AI.” And, the company will use a $50M convertible financing facility to “acquire high-performance GPU assets.” Even shoe companies are moving into AI.
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@PeloSwing You'd think they might've made that assessment before attacking a sovereign nation
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Plan for this morning is to manage these. Have a great weekend!
Saty@satymahajan
What a banger bearish D21 short. $SPX
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