Colton Conley 🛡️

Prediction Market Notional Volume hit $5.89B (-0.42%) last week. 🔹 Kalshi: $2.86B (+4.71%) 🔹 Polymarket: $2.50B (+4.01%) 🔹 Opinion: $155.81M (-57.02%) 🔹 Limitless: $145.05M (+42.31%) 🔹 Crypto.​com: $122.58M (+14.96%) 🔹 Predict: $77.17M (-55.45%) 🔹 Other: $31.07M (-15.49%) 🔹 Overtime: $3.94M (-10.46%)

MSTR traded at 7x premium to NAV two years ago. now 16% discount. that's 96% destruction of the saylor premium. $6b in short interest says the levered bitcoin narrative is dead. but there's a spread trade here. buy at 20%+ discount to NAV, sell at par. you're not betting on bitcoin. you're betting institutional yield chasers keep buying 11.5% STRC and narrow the gap. the saylor premium is dead. the discount arbitrage just started.

JUST IN - Trump open to supporting armed Iranian militias, after speaking with Kurdish leaders in Iran — WSJ

*INSURERS TO CANCEL POLICIES FOR SHIPS IN GULF, HORMUZ STRAIT:FT

Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of War to deploy our models in their classified network. In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible outcome. AI safety and wide distribution of benefits are the core of our mission. Two of our most important safety principles are prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems. The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement. We also will build technical safeguards to ensure our models behave as they should, which the DoW also wanted. We will deploy FDEs to help with our models and to ensure their safety, we will deploy on cloud networks only. We are asking the DoW to offer these same terms to all AI companies, which in our opinion we think everyone should be willing to accept. We have expressed our strong desire to see things de-escalate away from legal and governmental actions and towards reasonable agreements. We remain committed to serve all of humanity as best we can. The world is a complicated, messy, and sometimes dangerous place.

Fun fact: your transformer's attention weights are the unique solution (transport plan) to an optimal transport problem regularized by entropy.

Apple will either acquire this or sherlock it within 18 months. They can’t let a third party own the fastest path from idea to App Store. Rork just abandoned their entire React Native stack for native Swift. This company raised $2.8M from a16z building cross-platform apps from prompts. Rork Max throws that away and bets everything on Apple-native. That’s a complete technical pivot, not an iteration. The “replaces Xcode” line is the real announcement. Xcode is a 21-year-old IDE that Apple has zero competitive pressure to modernize. Every iOS developer complains about it. Nobody builds against it because Apple controls the entire toolchain from compiler to App Store submission. Rork is betting that Claude Code can generate Swift well enough to bypass that monopoly entirely. The timing tells you something. They chose Claude Code and Opus 4.6 over GPT-5, which means they tested both and Anthropic’s code generation won for native Swift output. That’s a live benchmark result disguised as a partnership announcement. If Rork Max can actually one-shot native Swift apps for iPhone, Watch, iPad, TV, and Vision Pro from a browser, the IDE, the build system, the simulator, the provisioning profiles… all of that complexity collapses into a website. There are 34 million registered Apple developers. Most of them hate Xcode. Rork just showed them the exit, and Apple can’t afford to let someone else own the door.